Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@karvelis.bsky.social
Intelligence | Counterinsurgency | Hybrid war | LatAm | documentary photography | tacos | beer. Not necessarily in that order. #SlavaUkraini 🇺🇦
Pinned
Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@karvelis.bsky.social
· Nov 12
It turns out that there’s no insurgencies starter pack, so I’ve made one.
Let me know if I’ve missed someone.
go.bsky.app/12EFpjk
Let me know if I’ve missed someone.
go.bsky.app/12EFpjk
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Important to call things by their right names.
US is not negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. It is negotiating between Russia and themselves.
Which means that the warring parties are not negotiating, and therefore the war will continue.
US is not negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. It is negotiating between Russia and themselves.
Which means that the warring parties are not negotiating, and therefore the war will continue.
This framing is wrong. The failure underscores how far apart Russia and Ukraine are. We need to stop exaggerating the U.S. role in making peace.
U.S. envoys left Moscow without a breakthrough after hours of talks at the Kremlin, underscoring how far apart Washington and Moscow remain on key terms of a possible settlement to the war in Ukraine. meduza.io/en/news/2025...
December 3, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Important to call things by their right names.
US is not negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. It is negotiating between Russia and themselves.
Which means that the warring parties are not negotiating, and therefore the war will continue.
US is not negotiating between Russia and Ukraine. It is negotiating between Russia and themselves.
Which means that the warring parties are not negotiating, and therefore the war will continue.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Just as predicted, the badly staged circus continues and remnants of @senategop.govpeeps.us @houserepublicans.bsky.social have to play along this #Kremlin designed idiocy that gives Kremlin war criminal precious time & weakens #NATO resolve in Ukraine. nbcnews.com/world/ukrain... via
@nbcnews.com
@nbcnews.com
Putin meets Witkoff and Kushner for five hours with no breakthrough on Ukraine peace deal, Putin adviser says
"If Trump will really press him, Putin will agree to end the fighting," one Russian analyst told NBC News.
nbcnews.com
December 3, 2025 at 4:49 AM
Just as predicted, the badly staged circus continues and remnants of @senategop.govpeeps.us @houserepublicans.bsky.social have to play along this #Kremlin designed idiocy that gives Kremlin war criminal precious time & weakens #NATO resolve in Ukraine. nbcnews.com/world/ukrain... via
@nbcnews.com
@nbcnews.com
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
For months, Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dimitriev have been cooking up how extract as much as possible for 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇸 through a deal about 🇺🇦 without 🇺🇦!
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
December 1, 2025 at 10:42 AM
For months, Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dimitriev have been cooking up how extract as much as possible for 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇸 through a deal about 🇺🇦 without 🇺🇦!
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Watch my analysis right here👇
open.substack.com/pub/jacobkaa...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
📅 ONLINE EVENT | Violence and Organised Crime in Ecuador
🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels
w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels
w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
December 1, 2025 at 9:30 AM
📅 ONLINE EVENT | Violence and Organised Crime in Ecuador
🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels
w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
🕐 2 December | 10am Quito | 10am New York | 4pm Brussels
w/ @glaeldys.bsky.social,Karol Norona, Guido Núñez and @renatasegura.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
" #Trump confirms he recently spoke with #Venezuela ’s Nicolás #Maduro"
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump confirms he recently spoke with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro
Trump remained tight-lipped on details of call with Venezuelan president as tensions rise between countries
www.theguardian.com
December 1, 2025 at 8:32 AM
" #Trump confirms he recently spoke with #Venezuela ’s Nicolás #Maduro"
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
OTD in 1939 USSR began to liberate Finland from themselves in the Winter War. It followed denials, a false flag, a bullshit excuse, us deliberately targeting civilians while we took massive casualties we lied about.
Imagine that happening today...
Imagine that happening today...
November 30, 2025 at 1:36 PM
OTD in 1939 USSR began to liberate Finland from themselves in the Winter War. It followed denials, a false flag, a bullshit excuse, us deliberately targeting civilians while we took massive casualties we lied about.
Imagine that happening today...
Imagine that happening today...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Ofc, we didn't actually invade Finland. We "assisted" the new "legitimate government" who "asked" for help after tiny Finland aggressively attacked USSR just as our army was peacefully massed on their previous border in attack formation.
Again. Imagine that happening today
Again. Imagine that happening today
November 30, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Ofc, we didn't actually invade Finland. We "assisted" the new "legitimate government" who "asked" for help after tiny Finland aggressively attacked USSR just as our army was peacefully massed on their previous border in attack formation.
Again. Imagine that happening today
Again. Imagine that happening today
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
OTD in 1951 3rd wave of Operation Osen deportations began. 20,000 Lithuanians were forcibly deported to Siberia as USSR continued to "liberate them from fascism" 6 years after WW2 ended
Imagine mass deportations happening today...
Imagine mass deportations happening today...
November 30, 2025 at 1:41 PM
OTD in 1951 3rd wave of Operation Osen deportations began. 20,000 Lithuanians were forcibly deported to Siberia as USSR continued to "liberate them from fascism" 6 years after WW2 ended
Imagine mass deportations happening today...
Imagine mass deportations happening today...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Lord Lebedev maintains his father doesn’t support Putin and has no links to his regime, but this photo (taken around the time Johnson was partying with the Lebedevs) suggests differently, as do Lebedev emails to Surkov about hosting conferences in Crimea
www.occrp.org/en/news/chan...
www.occrp.org/en/news/chan...
Channel 4: Ex-PM Overruled Security Concerns Over Nominee To House Of Lords
U.K. government officials asked Queen Elizabeth II to block the appointment of Russian-born British businessman Evgeny Lebedev to parliament’s upper chamber over concerns his father’s ties to the Krem...
www.occrp.org
November 30, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Lord Lebedev maintains his father doesn’t support Putin and has no links to his regime, but this photo (taken around the time Johnson was partying with the Lebedevs) suggests differently, as do Lebedev emails to Surkov about hosting conferences in Crimea
www.occrp.org/en/news/chan...
www.occrp.org/en/news/chan...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
This is Alexander Lebedev, former KGB officer, the close friend of Boris Johnson, father of Lord Lebedev, running a conference in Crimea in 2017 with Sergey Aksyonov - the mafia leader known as the ‘Goblin’ who Putin installed as leader after the invasion
November 30, 2025 at 4:45 AM
This is Alexander Lebedev, former KGB officer, the close friend of Boris Johnson, father of Lord Lebedev, running a conference in Crimea in 2017 with Sergey Aksyonov - the mafia leader known as the ‘Goblin’ who Putin installed as leader after the invasion
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
“Russia’s drones and agents are unleashing attacks across NATO countries and Europe is now doing what would have seemed outlandish just a few years ago: planning how to hit back.”
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia
Countries are looking at joint offensive cyber operations and surprise military drills as Moscow steps up its campaign to destabilize NATO allies.
www.politico.eu
November 29, 2025 at 9:18 AM
“Russia’s drones and agents are unleashing attacks across NATO countries and Europe is now doing what would have seemed outlandish just a few years ago: planning how to hit back.”
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Who gave Bloomberg a recording of the Witkoff-Ushakov call, and why?
@shaunwalker7.bsky.social evaluates the suspects, and their motives.
@shaunwalker7.bsky.social evaluates the suspects, and their motives.
Who leaked Witkoff’s call advising Kremlin on how to get Trump on side?
Bloomberg publishes extraordinary transcripts of secret discussions, but their provenance remains unclear
www.theguardian.com
November 28, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Who gave Bloomberg a recording of the Witkoff-Ushakov call, and why?
@shaunwalker7.bsky.social evaluates the suspects, and their motives.
@shaunwalker7.bsky.social evaluates the suspects, and their motives.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
A quick reminder of who Nigel Farage was most concerned about when Putin's tanks first rolled into Ukraine
November 27, 2025 at 8:22 PM
A quick reminder of who Nigel Farage was most concerned about when Putin's tanks first rolled into Ukraine
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
@pepowied.bsky.social me pasa el final más loco que he visto en los últimos años: 7 abajo con solo 13s para acabar el partido, el lituano Ignas Sargiunas mete tres triples increíbles para ganar a Gran Bretaña. El último es inenarrable, sobre la bocina final 😲😲👏👏👏
www.reddit.com/r/nba/commen...
www.reddit.com/r/nba/commen...
From the nba community on Reddit: Ignas Sargiunas with Lithuania down 7 points, hits THREE triples in last NINE seconds including the game winning buzzeer beater!
Explore this post and more from the nba community
www.reddit.com
November 28, 2025 at 1:03 AM
@pepowied.bsky.social me pasa el final más loco que he visto en los últimos años: 7 abajo con solo 13s para acabar el partido, el lituano Ignas Sargiunas mete tres triples increíbles para ganar a Gran Bretaña. El último es inenarrable, sobre la bocina final 😲😲👏👏👏
www.reddit.com/r/nba/commen...
www.reddit.com/r/nba/commen...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
“The 🇩🇰Danish government has set up a “night watch” in the foreign ministry, not to keep out the wildlings and White Walkers like the Night’s Watch of Game of Thrones, but rather to monitor 🇺🇸Donald Trump’s pronouncements and movements while Copenhagen sleeps. The night watch starts at 5pm each day.”
Denmark sets up ‘night watch’ to monitor Trump after Greenland row
US president’s threat to seize territory prompts intelligence briefings reminiscent of Game of Thrones patrol
www.theguardian.com
November 27, 2025 at 6:17 PM
“The 🇩🇰Danish government has set up a “night watch” in the foreign ministry, not to keep out the wildlings and White Walkers like the Night’s Watch of Game of Thrones, but rather to monitor 🇺🇸Donald Trump’s pronouncements and movements while Copenhagen sleeps. The night watch starts at 5pm each day.”
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
1/10 The Russian narrative is starting to collapse.
For years, Moscow pushed the idea that Ukraine was doomed and Russia unstoppable. That narrative is collapsing under the weight of reality.
Here’s why Russia is failing strategically despite tactical gains👇
For years, Moscow pushed the idea that Ukraine was doomed and Russia unstoppable. That narrative is collapsing under the weight of reality.
Here’s why Russia is failing strategically despite tactical gains👇
November 27, 2025 at 10:04 AM
1/10 The Russian narrative is starting to collapse.
For years, Moscow pushed the idea that Ukraine was doomed and Russia unstoppable. That narrative is collapsing under the weight of reality.
Here’s why Russia is failing strategically despite tactical gains👇
For years, Moscow pushed the idea that Ukraine was doomed and Russia unstoppable. That narrative is collapsing under the weight of reality.
Here’s why Russia is failing strategically despite tactical gains👇
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff isn’t working for the US, or for humanity. He’s working for Vladimir Putin. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
November 25, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff isn’t working for the US, or for humanity. He’s working for Vladimir Putin. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Stay tuned for the @theins.press story, in collaboration with @spiegel.de, about how we knew Kirill Dmitriev was the architect of this “peace plan.” Drops tomorrow at 5am EST.
November 26, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Stay tuned for the @theins.press story, in collaboration with @spiegel.de, about how we knew Kirill Dmitriev was the architect of this “peace plan.” Drops tomorrow at 5am EST.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
November 23, 2025 at 2:37 PM
In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Unfortunate that @christogrozev.bsky.social has not shared here the remarks he published on X about the Trump-Putin plan for Ukraine.
I'm taking the liberty of doing it for him.
I'm taking the liberty of doing it for him.
November 23, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Unfortunate that @christogrozev.bsky.social has not shared here the remarks he published on X about the Trump-Putin plan for Ukraine.
I'm taking the liberty of doing it for him.
I'm taking the liberty of doing it for him.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Must suck to think you have two Administration jobs, only to realize you actually have zero.
November 23, 2025 at 4:07 AM
Must suck to think you have two Administration jobs, only to realize you actually have zero.
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
The Nordic-Baltic Joint Statement - we will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe's defence. To the Ukrainian people: you are not alone🇺🇦
November 23, 2025 at 4:26 AM
The Nordic-Baltic Joint Statement - we will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe's defence. To the Ukrainian people: you are not alone🇺🇦
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
Reposted by Ignas Karvelis 🇱🇹🇺🇦
"The evolution of Russia’s intelligence and security services since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine reflects a broader strategic adaptation: a fusion of legacy Soviet practices with new methods of covert influence, violence, manipulation, and hostage trading." cepa.org/comprehensiv...
War Without End: Russia’s Shadow Warfare
To secure its grip on power, Russia adopts Soviet practices coupled with modern tactics of covert influence, violence, and manipulation.
cepa.org
November 22, 2025 at 12:19 PM
"The evolution of Russia’s intelligence and security services since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine reflects a broader strategic adaptation: a fusion of legacy Soviet practices with new methods of covert influence, violence, manipulation, and hostage trading." cepa.org/comprehensiv...