@ryanmn.bsky.social
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I do not think Dems will have a swing of 15 points from 2024 in 2026, BUT, ignoring candidate effects there would be about 270 Democratic House members and 54 senators in that scenario.
December 3, 2025 at 2:37 AM
I do not think Dems will have a swing of 15 points from 2024 in 2026, BUT, ignoring candidate effects there would be about 270 Democratic House members and 54 senators in that scenario.
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A 17-point swing there turns into about 250 seats.
December 3, 2025 at 2:47 AM
A 17-point swing there turns into about 250 seats.
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Fucjin R+22 to R+5.6? In an off year election?? In a district gerrymandered to fuck to keep it republican?? Fuck yeah, TN07, y'all done good. Swinging a district like that 16 points is hard goddamned work so y'all go have something to eat and get some rest.
December 3, 2025 at 2:24 AM
Fucjin R+22 to R+5.6? In an off year election?? In a district gerrymandered to fuck to keep it republican?? Fuck yeah, TN07, y'all done good. Swinging a district like that 16 points is hard goddamned work so y'all go have something to eat and get some rest.
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Updating - total reported turnout in the TN7 special is now 168k, or 93% of the total votes cast in the November, 2022 midterm general election, a race the GOP won by 22 pts. The GOP has some serious issues right now.
December 3, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Updating - total reported turnout in the TN7 special is now 168k, or 93% of the total votes cast in the November, 2022 midterm general election, a race the GOP won by 22 pts. The GOP has some serious issues right now.
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If the TN 07 special election ends up with a 14-point shift in margin toward the Democrat compared to the 2024 presidential election, it is worth noting that there are 50 Republicans currently serving in the House in districts that Trump won by 14 points or less.
December 3, 2025 at 2:50 AM
If the TN 07 special election ends up with a 14-point shift in margin toward the Democrat compared to the 2024 presidential election, it is worth noting that there are 50 Republicans currently serving in the House in districts that Trump won by 14 points or less.
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Total turnout in this special election race is approaching 90% of the last midterm's (2022) general election turnout. This was a VERY high turnout special election, and still saw a double digit swing away from GOPs.
December 3, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Total turnout in this special election race is approaching 90% of the last midterm's (2022) general election turnout. This was a VERY high turnout special election, and still saw a double digit swing away from GOPs.
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NBC News projects: Matt Van Epps (R) wins TN-7 special election.
Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024.
Now with 90% of the vote in, Van Epps is winning by 4.1%.
Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024.
Now with 90% of the vote in, Van Epps is winning by 4.1%.
December 3, 2025 at 2:30 AM
NBC News projects: Matt Van Epps (R) wins TN-7 special election.
Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024.
Now with 90% of the vote in, Van Epps is winning by 4.1%.
Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024.
Now with 90% of the vote in, Van Epps is winning by 4.1%.
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The fact that there's been some actual election night suspense on how Tennessee ends is going to be enough to trigger those cold sweats among House Republicans.
And Dems will likely get to point to another (admittedly way smaller!) flip, stay tuned for that.
And Dems will likely get to point to another (admittedly way smaller!) flip, stay tuned for that.
December 3, 2025 at 2:05 AM
The fact that there's been some actual election night suspense on how Tennessee ends is going to be enough to trigger those cold sweats among House Republicans.
And Dems will likely get to point to another (admittedly way smaller!) flip, stay tuned for that.
And Dems will likely get to point to another (admittedly way smaller!) flip, stay tuned for that.
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The last county, Williamson, has reported its early votes. Based on early votes everywhere and E-Day votes in a handful of counties, Van Epps (R) now leads districtwide, 49.6–49.3%. #TN07
December 3, 2025 at 1:56 AM
The last county, Williamson, has reported its early votes. Based on early votes everywhere and E-Day votes in a handful of counties, Van Epps (R) now leads districtwide, 49.6–49.3%. #TN07
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Election Day votes will likely be redder than early votes in every county, meaning that Van Epps will probably gain ground as more votes are counted in every county other than Davidson. So Behn needs Davidson to come up big. #TN07
December 3, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Election Day votes will likely be redder than early votes in every county, meaning that Van Epps will probably gain ground as more votes are counted in every county other than Davidson. So Behn needs Davidson to come up big. #TN07
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The Davidson County early vote has reported, and it goes for Behn (D) by a whopping 85–15%. She now leads districtwide 53–46% with 44% of the expected vote counted. #TN07
December 3, 2025 at 1:39 AM
The Davidson County early vote has reported, and it goes for Behn (D) by a whopping 85–15%. She now leads districtwide 53–46% with 44% of the expected vote counted. #TN07
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Annnd the red shift has begun in TN.
Perry County was +41% for the GOP in the early vote, but now +51%. Hickman County went from +42% GOP to +47% GOP.
Perry County was +41% for the GOP in the early vote, but now +51%. Hickman County went from +42% GOP to +47% GOP.
December 3, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Annnd the red shift has begun in TN.
Perry County was +41% for the GOP in the early vote, but now +51%. Hickman County went from +42% GOP to +47% GOP.
Perry County was +41% for the GOP in the early vote, but now +51%. Hickman County went from +42% GOP to +47% GOP.
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It’s not deporting, if you’re sending citizens to another country. It’s human trafficking. In this case, it’s also slave labor. You’re talking about an administration selling US citizens into slave labor.
Leavitt confirmed that the WH is working on deporting US citizens to El Salvador
April 8, 2025 at 6:59 PM
It’s not deporting, if you’re sending citizens to another country. It’s human trafficking. In this case, it’s also slave labor. You’re talking about an administration selling US citizens into slave labor.
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At this point, you can’t convince me they aren’t manipulating the market.
As soon as the indexes started peaking today, the White House started talking about tariffs on China, and everything is in the red again.
As soon as the indexes started peaking today, the White House started talking about tariffs on China, and everything is in the red again.
April 8, 2025 at 7:36 PM
At this point, you can’t convince me they aren’t manipulating the market.
As soon as the indexes started peaking today, the White House started talking about tariffs on China, and everything is in the red again.
As soon as the indexes started peaking today, the White House started talking about tariffs on China, and everything is in the red again.
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Casar: One of the most important things I learned is how so many of the most right-wing elected officials break things, do not want services to work, and then campaign on them being broken in order to gain political power.
March 29, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Casar: One of the most important things I learned is how so many of the most right-wing elected officials break things, do not want services to work, and then campaign on them being broken in order to gain political power.
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Why aren’t you wearing a suit?
Have you said “Thank you” to Greenland and Denmark for allowing you to have a base on Greenland?
Have you said “Thank you” to Greenland and Denmark for allowing you to have a base on Greenland?
March 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Why aren’t you wearing a suit?
Have you said “Thank you” to Greenland and Denmark for allowing you to have a base on Greenland?
Have you said “Thank you” to Greenland and Denmark for allowing you to have a base on Greenland?
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This is what the opposition did in the Hungary Parliament when they passed the Pride ban.
May we have congresspeople with an ounce of the courage.
May we have congresspeople with an ounce of the courage.
March 28, 2025 at 6:56 PM
This is what the opposition did in the Hungary Parliament when they passed the Pride ban.
May we have congresspeople with an ounce of the courage.
May we have congresspeople with an ounce of the courage.
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“Who derives joy from that?”
- the thousands of veterans and federal workers he is firing
- people who still believe in democracy and the Constitution
- people who don’t want to be ruled by oligarchs
- people who don’t like Nazis
- his baby mommas
- people who prefer their cars not explode
- the thousands of veterans and federal workers he is firing
- people who still believe in democracy and the Constitution
- people who don’t want to be ruled by oligarchs
- people who don’t like Nazis
- his baby mommas
- people who prefer their cars not explode
March 29, 2025 at 12:02 AM
“Who derives joy from that?”
- the thousands of veterans and federal workers he is firing
- people who still believe in democracy and the Constitution
- people who don’t want to be ruled by oligarchs
- people who don’t like Nazis
- his baby mommas
- people who prefer their cars not explode
- the thousands of veterans and federal workers he is firing
- people who still believe in democracy and the Constitution
- people who don’t want to be ruled by oligarchs
- people who don’t like Nazis
- his baby mommas
- people who prefer their cars not explode
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"The suspension of USAID monies for humanitarian relief is moral theft for the poorest and most desperate men, women and children in our world today...It is unconscionable through any prism of Catholic thought." #CardinalMcElroy #PrayForAmerica
March 29, 2025 at 1:47 AM
"The suspension of USAID monies for humanitarian relief is moral theft for the poorest and most desperate men, women and children in our world today...It is unconscionable through any prism of Catholic thought." #CardinalMcElroy #PrayForAmerica
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Garcia: I will never stop pushing back and fighting Elon Musk and Donald Trump until you throw me in Guantanamo Bay. I promise you that.
March 29, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Garcia: I will never stop pushing back and fighting Elon Musk and Donald Trump until you throw me in Guantanamo Bay. I promise you that.
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“Tax the rich” receives a lot of applause at the Spartz town hall
March 28, 2025 at 11:49 PM
“Tax the rich” receives a lot of applause at the Spartz town hall
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What the actual fuck:
March 27, 2025 at 6:45 PM
What the actual fuck:
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Circling back on this…
March 24, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Circling back on this…
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Ask yourself:
Why would anyone who wasn’t an asset of the Russian government do this?
Why would any decent human being do this?
Why would anyone who wasn’t an asset of the Russian government do this?
Why would any decent human being do this?
March 18, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Ask yourself:
Why would anyone who wasn’t an asset of the Russian government do this?
Why would any decent human being do this?
Why would anyone who wasn’t an asset of the Russian government do this?
Why would any decent human being do this?