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Yuriy Gorodnichenko

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko is an economist and Quantedge Presidential professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

Source: Wikipedia
H-index: 66
Economics 87%
Business 9%
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by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Congratulations!!!
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by Roger B. Myerson — Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

rbmyerson.bsky.social
What would Texans say if the President sent Illinois Guard troops to patrol their town? The Second Amendment affirms that people's right to keep local order by locally accountable forces is necessary to the security of a free state. This right is vital for all of us.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Live Updates: Top Trump Officials Head to Illinois and Oregon
www.nytimes.com
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Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Anna Nagurney

econ4ua.bsky.social
📊Working Paper No. 7: “What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict?”

Survey of 2,500+ Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries: territorial integrity and security guarantees are key to return.

Read: econ4ua.org/wp-content/u...

Submit research: lnkd.in/gf2nQ5WC
econ4ua.org
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by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Terrific title!
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by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Look forward to reading it
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by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Another [diplomant] said: this would “pay for Raiffeisen’s own risk [taking]” by deciding to continue operating in Russia.

yes, Raiffeisen decided to operate in Russia, decided to continue operations in RU after the invasion of #Ukraine. Raiffeisen has to face the consequences & pay the price.
EU plans to hand Deripaska-linked assets to Raiffeisen
Some European officials worry lifting sanctions would bolster Russian retaliation against western companies
www.ft.com
9

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko — Reposted by: Christian Odendahl

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh makes a strong case.
A rent freeze is not the answer to New York’s housing crisis
If he is elected mayor, Zohran Mamdani should concentrate on expanding supply
www.ft.com
1 1 7

Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

economist.com
“Stablecoins, like money-market funds, project security but can collapse under pressure,” argues Jean Tirole in a guest essay. The Nobel laureate explains why these digital tokens are riskier than promised
A Nobel laureate on why stablecoins may be nothing of the sort
Payments systems must be built on public infrastructure, not speculative tokens, writes Jean Tirole
econ.st
1 9 15

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
$2.4 trillion projected cost (over 6 years; as of April 2022) of Russian aggression is likely a lower bound.

Professional forecasters underestimated to cost of RUS illegal annexation of #Crimea and partial occupation of the #Donbas in 2014 by a factor of 3

#UkrainianView
econ4ua.bsky.social
Economists for Ukraine @econ4ua.bsky.social · 16d
📊Working Paper No.6

New paper by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Vasudevan uses macroeconomic forecasts to estimate the cumulative costs of the Russian invasion for 29 countries. Soon after the attack, projected costs hit $2.44 trillion, with rising uncertainty and spillover effects.

#EconSky
Macroeconomic Expectations in a War
Using short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters.
econ4ua.org
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Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Iikka Korhonen

econ4ua.bsky.social
📊Working Paper No.6

New paper by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Vasudevan uses macroeconomic forecasts to estimate the cumulative costs of the Russian invasion for 29 countries. Soon after the attack, projected costs hit $2.44 trillion, with rising uncertainty and spillover effects.

#EconSky
Macroeconomic Expectations in a War
Using short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters.
econ4ua.org
1 4 14

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Should be zero
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by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
A Russian drone hits a #university building in #Kharkiv

Senseless and barbaric daily terror

Imagine your university gets a hit like that

#Ukraine
Момент удару по освітньому закладу в Слобідському районі
YouTube video by Харківська обласна прокуратура
www.youtube.com
5 12

by Menzie Chinn — Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

mchinn.bsky.social
Fed Inflation Credibility Threatened #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
2 11 26

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
The T-shirt says it all...

But Salvini also once said he would like to have Putin as Italy’s prime minister “tomorrow”.
economist.com
The Economist @economist.com · 23d
Matteo Salvini toned down his hero-worship of Vladimir Putin after joining Italy’s pro-Ukrainian government. But more recently he has been exploiting public fatigue with the war
Italy’s coalition sends mixed messages on Ukraine and Russia
Italian voters are ambivalent, so the government is too
econ.st
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Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

economist.com
Matteo Salvini toned down his hero-worship of Vladimir Putin after joining Italy’s pro-Ukrainian government. But more recently he has been exploiting public fatigue with the war
Italy’s coalition sends mixed messages on Ukraine and Russia
Italian voters are ambivalent, so the government is too
econ.st
2 2 10

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
A weak response invites more provocations, more aggression, more brinkmanship
Romania condemns Russian drone violation of its airspace
Country’s defence minister calls Russia’s behaviour ‘reckless’ after second breach of Nato territory in a week
www.ft.com
2 8 78

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation

A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️

More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD

#EconSky
US consumer inflation heats up; weekly jobless claims near four-year high
U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.
www.reuters.com
1 2 6

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
BEL Foreign Minister: don't take RUS money b/c "this would kill the hen [SWIFT] laying golden eggs"

Sure, it's more important than Russia killing Ukrainians, the greatest war in Europe since WW2, Russian war crimes, etc.

www.ft.com/content/f0cc...
Belgium to soften stance on frozen Russian assets if EU shares risk
Foreign minister warns bloc not to ‘kill the hen laying golden eggs’
www.ft.com
6

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko — Reposted by: Scott Gehlbach

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
The chilling effects of RUS aggression are very much clear in the €zone.

Large spillover effects have implications for:
* Macro stabilization in Europe
* The cost of war in general & RUS agg specifically
* The calculus of costs&benefits of aid to #Ukraine
* mil buildup in Europe

#UkrainianView
nber.org
NBER @nber.org · Sep 8
Using surveys on expected duration of the Russian-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts to examine impacts of geopolitics on consumers' beliefs about economic conditions and their own financial outlooks, from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Georgarakos, Kenny, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w34195
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Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

nber.org
Using surveys on expected duration of the Russian-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts to examine impacts of geopolitics on consumers' beliefs about economic conditions and their own financial outlooks, from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Georgarakos, Kenny, and Coibion https://www.nber.org/papers/w34195
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by Yuriy Gorodnichenko — Reposted by: Anna Nagurney

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
A new PS piece with @ilonasolohub.bsky.social and @matsmarcusson.bsky.social

2 options: 1) RUS defeat (means more sanctions & more weapons for UKR). 2) a defeat for democracy (&subdued Europe).

If 1), Europeans should sacrifice some of their welfare. If 2), they'll lose it all.

#UkrainianView
www.project-syndicate.org
3 28 71

Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Anna Nagurney

sitestockholm.bsky.social
Rebuilding Ukraine is more than just bricks—it's about a rebuilding a modern, secure future. New research paper by @torbjornbecker.bsky.social, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro maps the path to a resilient, democratic Ukraine.

💡Learn more: www.hhs.se/en/about-us/...
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Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

econ4ua.bsky.social
📊Working Paper No.3

A new paper by Olga Bondarenko utilizes partial-equilibrium models with nonstationary variables to endogenously estimate grain price trends, offering insight into how Russia’s invasion may have affected prices by reducing Ukraine’s presence in global commodity markets.

#EconSky
Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices
I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine's global market presence, triggered by russia's invasion, could have affected trend prices.
econ4ua.org
5 11

Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

empctmacrotx.bsky.social
How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations

That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".
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by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
A great honor!
bsebordeaux.bsky.social
Bordeaux Sciences Economiques / Bordeaux School of Economics @bsebordeaux.bsky.social · Aug 28
📣 Final keynote speaker Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, UC Berkeley, now presenting: Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
📍At EEA 2025 Congress @eeanews.bsky.social @bsebordeaux.bsky.social @univbordeaux.bsky.social
#EEA2025
1 3 13

Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

bsebordeaux.bsky.social
📣 Final keynote speaker Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, UC Berkeley, now presenting: Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
📍At EEA 2025 Congress @eeanews.bsky.social @bsebordeaux.bsky.social @univbordeaux.bsky.social
#EEA2025
2 3

Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Jonathan Portes, Lawrence F. Katz , and 21 more

tderyugina.bsky.social
Over 125 economists signed the open letter calling on the President, Congress, and the American public to uphold the principles of Federal Reserve independence and not remove Lisa Cook without due process.

There's still time to sign! And please share.

#EconSky

docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Open letter
Click here to add your signature. An Open Letter from Economists in Support of Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Independence To the President, Members of Congress, and the American public: We wr...
docs.google.com
12 550 1.5K

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko — Reposted by: Claudia Sahm, Scott Gehlbach, Michael Kevane

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Trump welcomes a war criminal on US soil

#UkrainianView
17 40 130

by Yuriy Gorodnichenko — Reposted by: Menzie Chinn

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
EU leaders:
... vital interests include ... robust&credible sec guarantees that enable UKR to defend its sovereignty&territorial integrity. #Ukraine has the freedom of choice over its own destiny. Meaningful negotiations can only take place in the context of a ceasefire/reduction of hostilities.
Statement by President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Tusk, Prime Minister Starmer, President von der Leyen and President Stubb on Peace for Ukraine ahead of President ...
We welcome President Trump\'s work to stop the killing in Ukraine, end the Russian Federation\'s war of aggression, and achieve just and lasting peace and security for Ukraine.\nWe are convinced that ...
ec.europa.eu
4 17

Reposted by: Yuriy Gorodnichenko

rvps2001.bsky.social
📼 Journalists from Radio Liberty have released previously unseen surveillance footage showing Russian soldiers killing 70-year-old Volodymyr Rubailo on Yablunska Street in Kyiv Oblast’s town of Bucha on 4 March 2022.

www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...

#Ukraine #Russia #RussianWarCrimes
Radio Liberty release footage of Russian looting and execution of civilian in Bucha – video
Journalists from Radio Liberty have released previously unseen surveillance footage showing Russian soldiers killing 70-year-old Volodymyr Rubailo on Yablunska Street in Kyiv Oblast’s town of Bucha on...
www.pravda.com.ua
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