Alan Wager
@dralanwager.bsky.social
Politics, public opinion and public policy at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Email: [email protected]
Email: [email protected]
Reposted by Alan Wager
The government's keenness to protect "good jobs" in manufacturing contrasts with its inaction in the face of the destruction of "good jobs" in universities. What's going on here is something other than economics.
December 18, 2025 at 11:23 AM
The government's keenness to protect "good jobs" in manufacturing contrasts with its inaction in the face of the destruction of "good jobs" in universities. What's going on here is something other than economics.
Reposted by Alan Wager
If Musk's plan was to shift the Overton window among the British political classes, mission pretty much accomplished www.politicshome.com/news/article...
Labour MPs Urge Senior Tory To Apologise For Sharing Tweet Claiming Home Secretary’s 'Loyalty Is To Islam'
Labour MPs have demanded that Conservative MP and chair of the 1922 Committee Bob Blackman apologise after he shared a tweet that claimed Home Secr...
www.politicshome.com
December 17, 2025 at 2:17 PM
If Musk's plan was to shift the Overton window among the British political classes, mission pretty much accomplished www.politicshome.com/news/article...
Reposted by Alan Wager
🚨 Postdoc in Comparative Politics/Public Opinion (2 years)
We’re hiring a 100% Postdoc at the University of Greifswald.
✨ What makes this job special: Two full years to focus on research (no teaching, no admin overload) embedded into an International Research Training Group
We’re hiring a 100% Postdoc at the University of Greifswald.
✨ What makes this job special: Two full years to focus on research (no teaching, no admin overload) embedded into an International Research Training Group
Postdoctoral Research Associate - International Research Training Group 2560 “Baltic Peripeties" 25/E19
Stellenausschreibung Institut für Politik- und Kommunikationswissenschaft
www.uni-greifswald.de
December 17, 2025 at 9:45 AM
🚨 Postdoc in Comparative Politics/Public Opinion (2 years)
We’re hiring a 100% Postdoc at the University of Greifswald.
✨ What makes this job special: Two full years to focus on research (no teaching, no admin overload) embedded into an International Research Training Group
We’re hiring a 100% Postdoc at the University of Greifswald.
✨ What makes this job special: Two full years to focus on research (no teaching, no admin overload) embedded into an International Research Training Group
Reposted by Alan Wager
December 17, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Jesus.
Bwriadau pleidleisio Senedd / Senedd Voting Intention (YouGov - nid MRP/ not MRP method) / (28/11 - 10/12)
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
December 17, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Jesus.
Reposted by Alan Wager
YouGov burying the lede here...
Andy Burnham: 0
Andy Burnham: 0
Latest party leader net favourability ratings, December 2025
Kemi Badenoch: -26
Nigel Farage: -35
Keir Starmer: -54
Zack Polanski: -6 (49% DK)
Ed Davey: -10 (38% DK)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Kemi Badenoch: -26
Nigel Farage: -35
Keir Starmer: -54
Zack Polanski: -6 (49% DK)
Ed Davey: -10 (38% DK)
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
December 16, 2025 at 10:56 AM
YouGov burying the lede here...
Andy Burnham: 0
Andy Burnham: 0
Using the levers of power in an effective and proactive way to attempt to frame the political debate and the government’s opponents? Might just catch on…
www.thetimes.com/article/80cd...
www.thetimes.com/article/80cd...
Reform’s Russian bribe case prompts election interference inquiry
The PM has ordered an investigation into foreign influence in politics after the ex-leader of Reform in Wales was jailed for taking cash to parrot Kremlin lines
www.thetimes.com
December 16, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Using the levers of power in an effective and proactive way to attempt to frame the political debate and the government’s opponents? Might just catch on…
www.thetimes.com/article/80cd...
www.thetimes.com/article/80cd...
If (big if, but far from impossible) Andy Burnham managed to win in Oldham West, it would be (I think) a first in British politics: a leader of a party effectively doomed by their party winning a by-election.
Imagine the day after photo op – presumably Starmer wouldn’t show up?
Imagine the day after photo op – presumably Starmer wouldn’t show up?
Labour rumour mill will rumble on but Starmer has shown he is up for the fight
Labour rumour mill will rumble on but Starmer has shown he is up for the fight
Efforts to get PM to spend more time with his MPs appear to be bearing fruit – more so than any macho briefing war
www.theguardian.com
December 15, 2025 at 9:57 PM
If (big if, but far from impossible) Andy Burnham managed to win in Oldham West, it would be (I think) a first in British politics: a leader of a party effectively doomed by their party winning a by-election.
Imagine the day after photo op – presumably Starmer wouldn’t show up?
Imagine the day after photo op – presumably Starmer wouldn’t show up?
Reposted by Alan Wager
Optimism is currently unfashionable. The newly published Community Life Survey asks, "do you agree or disagree that this local area is a place where people from different backgrounds get on well together?" I wondered if we might see a sharp decline this year; it has gone down 1%, to 80% agreement.
This year - one of both mat leave and reporting travels around the country - I've found an alternative story to the "Broken Britain" narrative.
My column for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social Christmas issue:
My column for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social Christmas issue:
I was wrong about Broken Britain
The country can feel divided and lost, but there’s always another side to the story
www.newstatesman.com
December 15, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Optimism is currently unfashionable. The newly published Community Life Survey asks, "do you agree or disagree that this local area is a place where people from different backgrounds get on well together?" I wondered if we might see a sharp decline this year; it has gone down 1%, to 80% agreement.
Reposted by Alan Wager
"AI" "assistants" are explicitly there to do the parts of the assignment that are ~designed~ to make students develop specific skills: generating ideas, formulating a position in response to a topic, turning thoughts into words, making strategic decisions about sentence structure, etc.
Nothing will make you an education AI skeptic faster than grading some college take home assignments. Admins who haven’t been in a classroom in years push it as a learning tool. Students are laughing at them as they use it as a cheating tool. It’s all instructors are texting about with each other.
December 14, 2025 at 6:30 PM
"AI" "assistants" are explicitly there to do the parts of the assignment that are ~designed~ to make students develop specific skills: generating ideas, formulating a position in response to a topic, turning thoughts into words, making strategic decisions about sentence structure, etc.
Reposted by Alan Wager
Pretty sure this tweet would have been career-ending not so long ago.
December 11, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Pretty sure this tweet would have been career-ending not so long ago.
Reposted by Alan Wager
The core thesis of our Brextinction paper, beautifully (or morbidly?) summarized in one flowchart (also based on YouGov data).
@simonhix.bsky.social @juhoharkonen.bsky.social
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
@simonhix.bsky.social @juhoharkonen.bsky.social
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Absolutely amazing chart from @peterkellner.bsky.social's piece in @thenewworldmag.bsky.social today:
www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...
www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...
December 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
The core thesis of our Brextinction paper, beautifully (or morbidly?) summarized in one flowchart (also based on YouGov data).
@simonhix.bsky.social @juhoharkonen.bsky.social
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
@simonhix.bsky.social @juhoharkonen.bsky.social
ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Reposted by Alan Wager
Exactly. In fact, having been a schoolboy at a not dissimilar school in that time, it's the Spectator article that spectacularly "misses the point": it's true that 'war talk' was the norm, but it was quite the opposite of the norm to identify *with* the Nazis - and certainly not "entirely typical".
The argument here is that because the war was still a big subject in 1970s playgrounds, this excuses Farage's gross behaviour at the time. No, Farage went way beyond anything I remember - which was more about air-shooting phantom Nazis invading the school grounds
www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-...
www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-...
December 10, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Exactly. In fact, having been a schoolboy at a not dissimilar school in that time, it's the Spectator article that spectacularly "misses the point": it's true that 'war talk' was the norm, but it was quite the opposite of the norm to identify *with* the Nazis - and certainly not "entirely typical".
Reposted by Alan Wager
Government has now - belatedly -published the impact assessment for the changes to skilled worker and care worker visas announced in May.
Impact is estimated between -£2 billion and £-10 billion (central - £10 billion).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6937e6...
Impact is estimated between -£2 billion and £-10 billion (central - £10 billion).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6937e6...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
December 9, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Government has now - belatedly -published the impact assessment for the changes to skilled worker and care worker visas announced in May.
Impact is estimated between -£2 billion and £-10 billion (central - £10 billion).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6937e6...
Impact is estimated between -£2 billion and £-10 billion (central - £10 billion).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6937e6...
Reposted by Alan Wager
Oh look. They’ve actually drawn a diagram for all the people stupid enough to need a bloody diagram.
Elon Musk and his Russian friends call for the abolishment of the EU
December 6, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Oh look. They’ve actually drawn a diagram for all the people stupid enough to need a bloody diagram.
Reposted by Alan Wager
The essence of Blue Labour thought is that somewhere in Downing Street there is a button marked “reindustrialise” that Tony Blair could have pressed, but instead he opted for the “more Woke Studies” button.
My brother in Christ, reindustrialization is based on international capital flows, not dumbass ideas to move down the value chain by turning colleges into vocational schools. You do realize that modern industry is almost always *high* skilled automation?
Read your Michael Pettis, you utter clown.
Read your Michael Pettis, you utter clown.
No reindustrialising? Our academic institutions are a part of the problem, overproducing elites and funnelling them into bullshit unproductive jobs. Half the universities need to close or become vocational colleges. You didn't even mention productivity.
Brexit is in the past. That ship has sailed.
Brexit is in the past. That ship has sailed.
December 5, 2025 at 8:58 PM
The essence of Blue Labour thought is that somewhere in Downing Street there is a button marked “reindustrialise” that Tony Blair could have pressed, but instead he opted for the “more Woke Studies” button.
Spot on. What’s the plan?
This is vile and so so wrong. GB News is the TV version of X.
Extreme racism like this should not be platformed as ‘news.’
It is absolutely disgusting and another attempt to drag ‘debate’ to the right and destabilise our democracy.
Extreme racism like this should not be platformed as ‘news.’
It is absolutely disgusting and another attempt to drag ‘debate’ to the right and destabilise our democracy.
GB News now broadcasting calls to remove the ethnic minority MPs from parliament
December 3, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Spot on. What’s the plan?
Reposted by Alan Wager
“A pact or merger also helps Reform overcome one of the biggest doubts that people have about voting for it –namely its sheer inexperience. Nigel Farage as prime minister and Robert Jenrick as chancellor? Be afraid – be very afraid.”
Even tactical voting will not help Labour survive a Tory-Reform pact
Nigel Farage has been quick to deny reports that, before the next general election, he intends to do a deal with the Conservatives – but if the right-wing parties ever formalised such an arrangement, ...
www.independent.co.uk
December 3, 2025 at 7:29 PM
“A pact or merger also helps Reform overcome one of the biggest doubts that people have about voting for it –namely its sheer inexperience. Nigel Farage as prime minister and Robert Jenrick as chancellor? Be afraid – be very afraid.”
Reposted by Alan Wager
Misleading write-up - it's true that there is a crisis in A&E, but this is not because of "soaring demand".
The RCN report itself shows that A&E attendances are only 3% higher than in 2019, while 12+ hour waits are 8,033% higher.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
The RCN report itself shows that A&E attendances are only 3% higher than in 2019, while 12+ hour waits are 8,033% higher.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Numbers leaving A&E without treatment triples in six years
Soaring demand has led to ‘shocking’ rise in untreated patients leaving NHS emergency departments in England, data shows
www.theguardian.com
December 3, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Misleading write-up - it's true that there is a crisis in A&E, but this is not because of "soaring demand".
The RCN report itself shows that A&E attendances are only 3% higher than in 2019, while 12+ hour waits are 8,033% higher.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
The RCN report itself shows that A&E attendances are only 3% higher than in 2019, while 12+ hour waits are 8,033% higher.
www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Reposted by Alan Wager
Time for day 2 of the "British General Election of 2024" advent calender. Who won & lost the campaign last summer? Which parties gained ground in polls? Who fell back? In the next post, we find out but first: here's a thread detailing how you can claim your discounted copy! bsky.app/profile/robf...
Looking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had a wonderful all star launch event in London last night, with representatives of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?
December 2, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Time for day 2 of the "British General Election of 2024" advent calender. Who won & lost the campaign last summer? Which parties gained ground in polls? Who fell back? In the next post, we find out but first: here's a thread detailing how you can claim your discounted copy! bsky.app/profile/robf...
Reposted by Alan Wager
Excitingly, my book now has a cover. You can see it here, where you can also now pre-order!
www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/no-sec...
www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/no-sec...
No Second Chances
Between 2016 and 2019, a unique coalition assembled within British politics. Combining Corbynite campaigners and Conservative Cabinet ministers, celebrities and grassroots activists, seasoned politica...
www.bitebackpublishing.com
December 2, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Excitingly, my book now has a cover. You can see it here, where you can also now pre-order!
www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/no-sec...
www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/no-sec...
Reposted by Alan Wager
But Chis Mason called this 'for us' yesterday. I don't understand .
Miles not backing down on this point despite repeated questioning. Reeves did need to find substantial tax increases. Contradicts a huge amount of the media coverage in last two days.
December 2, 2025 at 12:19 PM
But Chis Mason called this 'for us' yesterday. I don't understand .
Reposted by Alan Wager
Today's 70% fall in net migration to 205,000 was not one of the six stories in BBC ten o'clock news.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
November 27, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Today's 70% fall in net migration to 205,000 was not one of the six stories in BBC ten o'clock news.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters
Down by 140k isn't thought to be.
Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.
Reposted by Alan Wager
It’s worth noting that on the figures from earlier today - which seem very credible to me - the lost tax revenue as a result of Brexit could have covered the forecast downgrade and all new spending commitments more than twice over.
November 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
It’s worth noting that on the figures from earlier today - which seem very credible to me - the lost tax revenue as a result of Brexit could have covered the forecast downgrade and all new spending commitments more than twice over.
Reposted by Alan Wager
Are you an immigrant and want to understand our crazy society better? Then listen to MORE JAM TOMORROW!
November 24, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Are you an immigrant and want to understand our crazy society better? Then listen to MORE JAM TOMORROW!