Ben Vincent
@efficientestmtr.bsky.social
Louisiana labor markets economist, LSU guy, politics doomscroller
Reposted by Ben Vincent
"tell me we didn't just fire a dozen $500,000 missiles at a $200 camel"
"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"
"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"
December 26, 2025 at 7:17 PM
"tell me we didn't just fire a dozen $500,000 missiles at a $200 camel"
"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"
"sir, no evidence of any camel present, sir!"
Reposted by Ben Vincent
I'm sorry, it looks like you're right, I did in fact order the code red. I forgot you have the luxury of not knowing what I know. Would you like me to explain myself, or would you prefer to pick up a weapon and stand a post—I would be happy to research walls that have to be guarded by men with guns!
Yelling at chatJAG that it can't handle the truth
December 13, 2025 at 12:09 AM
I'm sorry, it looks like you're right, I did in fact order the code red. I forgot you have the luxury of not knowing what I know. Would you like me to explain myself, or would you prefer to pick up a weapon and stand a post—I would be happy to research walls that have to be guarded by men with guns!
Reposted by Ben Vincent
Staffing is down ~25% at BLS due to DOGE/DRP and the hiring freeze. But this impacts price programs (largely collected by BLS feds) more than jobs.
CPS (household data in the jobs report) is collected by Census field staff. They are down staff too but have been prioritizing economic indicators.
CPS (household data in the jobs report) is collected by Census field staff. They are down staff too but have been prioritizing economic indicators.
We were already down 25% on staffing at @BLS_gov due to layoffs ahead of shutdown. The effort to catch up means we will not get a clean read on the labor market until December.
Some things to watch for:
October 1 we had 151K federal workers who took earlier buyouts fall from the federal payrolls
Some things to watch for:
October 1 we had 151K federal workers who took earlier buyouts fall from the federal payrolls
December 12, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Staffing is down ~25% at BLS due to DOGE/DRP and the hiring freeze. But this impacts price programs (largely collected by BLS feds) more than jobs.
CPS (household data in the jobs report) is collected by Census field staff. They are down staff too but have been prioritizing economic indicators.
CPS (household data in the jobs report) is collected by Census field staff. They are down staff too but have been prioritizing economic indicators.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
Same product. Same store. Same time. But on Instacart, different customers may see different prices.
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...
Same Product, Same Store, but on Instacart, Prices Might Differ
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:01 PM
A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
It would make sense the next clusterfuck ended up in US insurance, tbh. They mostly dodged the post GFC reforms, have a super weird regulatory/supervisory structure, and the risk that was moved out of banking had to go somewhere
US life insurers are increasing their chances of suffering a run by borrowing more from short term markets and risking the kind of panic that would encourage policyholders to demand cash too. Great numbers in this @opinion.bloomberg.com editorial >> www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
November 20, 2025 at 9:23 AM
It would make sense the next clusterfuck ended up in US insurance, tbh. They mostly dodged the post GFC reforms, have a super weird regulatory/supervisory structure, and the risk that was moved out of banking had to go somewhere
Reposted by Ben Vincent
This must be what it’s like to meet Odin when you enter Valhalla. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/...
October 28, 2025 at 12:04 PM
This must be what it’s like to meet Odin when you enter Valhalla. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/...
Reposted by Ben Vincent
from my lunch today; "the trouble is not so much AI making you more productive, but that it's tripling the output of the biggest f***ing idiot where you work"
October 21, 2025 at 9:21 PM
from my lunch today; "the trouble is not so much AI making you more productive, but that it's tripling the output of the biggest f***ing idiot where you work"
Reposted by Ben Vincent
This is the history that people don't want to admit. It's all "hahaha how do you go bankrupt running a casino", but Trump came out of there with more money than he went in, and with the same number of holes in his head, which is not a boast everyone can make. He's declined since, mind.
Trump outpaced the NY & Philly mobs in Atlantic City. They killed each other and ended up with nothing as the city never took off as planned. Trump unloaded all his NY Trump Tower’s and two golf courses’ debt onto the casinos, took out a billion in cash, and stiffed the banks (as well as workers).
September 18, 2025 at 7:21 PM
This is the history that people don't want to admit. It's all "hahaha how do you go bankrupt running a casino", but Trump came out of there with more money than he went in, and with the same number of holes in his head, which is not a boast everyone can make. He's declined since, mind.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
Reposted by Ben Vincent
Information environment has reached its grotesque conclusion in that there is a very real killer out there who has not been identified, apprehended, or investigated, a detail practically inconsequential to nearly every commentator’s purposes.
September 10, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Information environment has reached its grotesque conclusion in that there is a very real killer out there who has not been identified, apprehended, or investigated, a detail practically inconsequential to nearly every commentator’s purposes.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
I see the issue. When we said we would replace human workers with machines you assumed the machines would work. That's on you
August 8, 2025 at 8:04 PM
I see the issue. When we said we would replace human workers with machines you assumed the machines would work. That's on you
Reposted by Ben Vincent
Why do the jobs numbers get revised?
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
August 2, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Why do the jobs numbers get revised?
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
Reposted by Ben Vincent
>realizing how bad it truly is
November 10, 2024 at 12:51 AM
>realizing how bad it truly is
Reposted by Ben Vincent
“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo.
“lmao" said Gandalf, “well it has.”
“lmao" said Gandalf, “well it has.”
July 1, 2024 at 4:44 PM
“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo.
“lmao" said Gandalf, “well it has.”
“lmao" said Gandalf, “well it has.”
"If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they’ll kill you."
-attributed to George Bernard Shaw
-attributed to George Bernard Shaw
June 20, 2025 at 12:46 PM
"If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh. Otherwise they’ll kill you."
-attributed to George Bernard Shaw
-attributed to George Bernard Shaw
Reposted by Ben Vincent
mental health break? you bet it did
November 14, 2024 at 2:38 AM
mental health break? you bet it did
Reposted by Ben Vincent
In the spirit of Mother’s Day, here’s a clip of Björk two-piecing a reporter who was stalking her and her baby.
May 11, 2025 at 1:43 PM
In the spirit of Mother’s Day, here’s a clip of Björk two-piecing a reporter who was stalking her and her baby.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
Out on the town negotiating tariff rates with more than 70 countries. They're all just out of frame, negotiating too.
April 10, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Out on the town negotiating tariff rates with more than 70 countries. They're all just out of frame, negotiating too.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
The average American voter thinks that the government is too big but that it should spend more money on everything it does. This explains a decent share of the political chaos of this country.
March 2, 2025 at 7:48 PM
The average American voter thinks that the government is too big but that it should spend more money on everything it does. This explains a decent share of the political chaos of this country.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
I wish more people knew they can just say no and let the unreasonable asker be mad as a hornet.
February 17, 2025 at 2:21 PM
I wish more people knew they can just say no and let the unreasonable asker be mad as a hornet.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
you can't "claw back" in normal payment systems, what is going on here? somebody at the bank would have to send a separate instruction, and I don't see that there is any way of doing that which wouldn't constitute wire fraud.
February 13, 2025 at 4:53 PM
you can't "claw back" in normal payment systems, what is going on here? somebody at the bank would have to send a separate instruction, and I don't see that there is any way of doing that which wouldn't constitute wire fraud.
“A prophet is not without honor, except in his home town"
-Mark 6:4
-Mark 6:4
January 25, 2025 at 12:08 AM
“A prophet is not without honor, except in his home town"
-Mark 6:4
-Mark 6:4
Reposted by Ben Vincent
I just saw a post on another app about how “before you let celebrities ask you to rebuild Hollywood, remember the people of Asheville, North Carolina …”
Just don’t do this. Don’t pit disaster survivors against each other. Everyone who’s suffered is worthy and deserving of relief and recovery.
Just don’t do this. Don’t pit disaster survivors against each other. Everyone who’s suffered is worthy and deserving of relief and recovery.
January 12, 2025 at 11:59 PM
I just saw a post on another app about how “before you let celebrities ask you to rebuild Hollywood, remember the people of Asheville, North Carolina …”
Just don’t do this. Don’t pit disaster survivors against each other. Everyone who’s suffered is worthy and deserving of relief and recovery.
Just don’t do this. Don’t pit disaster survivors against each other. Everyone who’s suffered is worthy and deserving of relief and recovery.
Reposted by Ben Vincent
My complaint with AI isn't that I think it'll cause an apocalypse or put everyone out of work. It's that I know what they really want it for, which is to offload responsibility. They want a machine to make the decisions so they, the humans in charge, can't be blamed.
December 21, 2024 at 5:07 PM
My complaint with AI isn't that I think it'll cause an apocalypse or put everyone out of work. It's that I know what they really want it for, which is to offload responsibility. They want a machine to make the decisions so they, the humans in charge, can't be blamed.