Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓
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francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓
@francesconicoli.bsky.social

All things Europe, in all things European.

Neofunctionalist-in-chief, trilemmer, sci-fi & fantasy nerd.

Political economist, associate professor at Politecnico of Turin, former fellow at Bruegel.

" Europe will be made through crises...." .. more

Political science 64%
Economics 22%
Pinned
Europe folded, precisely as I predicted. We pay our stubborn refusal to integrate European defence, which makes us dependent on the US for security.

This is the only reason the EU folded.

Defence, defence, defence.

Without a European army, we are vassals.

And vassals obey.

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Exactly 10 years ago Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 after it violated Turkish airspace near the Syrian border.

This incident became one of the most serious confrontations between Russia and a NATO member in decades. It’s a stark reminder that Moscow’s reckless behavior didn’t begin in 2022.

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Rachel Reeves says there’s a “hole” in the public finances.

A new decade-long Brexit study explains it:

a 6–8% hit to GDP – that's £180bn-£240bn a year – means less tax, less investment and less money for everything else.

Brexit made Britain poorer. Much poorer.
New: Boris Johnson’s ‘Brexit Titanic success’ was half right
Nearly ten years on, the first full assessment of Brexit confirms what millions warned: Britain made itself poorer
eastangliabylines.co.uk

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🔴 A massive Russian drone strike tore through Kharkiv’s energy and heating network, destroying a transformer substation and three houses.

Ten people sought medical help and three were killed, the city’s mayor told Suspilne.

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Musk Accidentally Proves 70% Of MAGA Accounts On Twitter Live In Russia www.thegodpodcast.com/p/moron-musk...

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Russia has problems also. Big problems. But in a totalitarian regime you can hide problems... until one day they turn into a crisis that spirals out of control.

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Yalta, Helsinki, Budapest, Minsk - there is a long Western tradition of being weak in negotiations with the Kremlin.

We should stop signing treaties that favor Moscow and were written in the Kremlin.

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I'm still trying to wrap my head around why Musk did this and his utter unawareness of what it would expose. Like, duh. 😂

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ALMOST! But he already disabled it!!

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This week, a European human rights NGO filed a criminal complaint accusing TotalEnergies of complicity in war crimes, torture and enforced disappearances in Mozambique.

The allegations turn on a massacre, first reported by us last year.

🔗 politi.co/49sOEix

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❗️Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated the United States' intention to introduce "changes and adjustments" to the peace plan for Ukraine.

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Read more⤵️
Ukraine peace plan: Europe's counter proposal in full
The counter proposal has been drafted by Britain, France and Germany.
tvpworld.com
The post is from Alexander Dugin in telegram, the Kremlin's chief ideologue, a self-proclaimed "intellectual," a prominent russian nazi, and a happy father.

​The post was written today.
1) Start the worst European war since 1945 and commit every imaginable war crime
2) Decide how you want to be rewarded for your aggression
3) Leak the list of your desiderata to the US press
4) Wait for the US president to enforce your wish list on your victim.
Russian policy 2025

Appease the terrorist, and this will be you.
Russie terroriste

Indicible douleur à Ternopil : un père berce le cercueil contenant le corps de son enfant😰

À Ternopil, on fait ses adieux à Maria et à ses enfants, Kamila et Nazar. Le père, Kamal, est le seul survivant de l'appartement, il a attendu et espéré 3 jours près des ruines de la maison

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Russie terroriste

Indicible douleur à Ternopil : un père berce le cercueil contenant le corps de son enfant😰

À Ternopil, on fait ses adieux à Maria et à ses enfants, Kamila et Nazar. Le père, Kamal, est le seul survivant de l'appartement, il a attendu et espéré 3 jours près des ruines de la maison

Meta/facebook ads are full of rushist propaganda.

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🇻🇪‼️ Budanov: Russian General Oleg Makarevich, who ordered the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant to be blown up, has headed a rotating advisory mission in Venezuela, where more than 120 Russian military personnel are training Venezuelan forces.
Twitter pays people based on engagement (views, retweets, comments, etc). It appears that many MAGA accounts are based abroad and they use AI technology to generate low-effort rage bait.

My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.

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So what do we know about Epstein? This is a thread — first, the documented facts; then, a few hypotheses.

Which policy areas do you have in mind? I see a walkback on green commitments. But that is normal politics, and it is up to the PES to parliamentarize the crisis. I personally think it would be an excellent development because it will create a confidence vote dynamic.

It is unavoidable and perhpas welcome. Integration advances through crises, and this crisis is at the edge of conferred power. Not unlike CJEU's early expansions of union competence.
Someone please explain WTF is going on in the US.

We're pretty sure the 28 point plan came from @kadmitriev, because @SteveWitkoff admitted it.

@marcorubio confirmed this to US senators, calling it a Russian proposal.

Later he said it was US-authored.

What a clown show.🤡

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What we might be learning tonight. JD Vance is on the inside with lots of influence over Trump policy towards Russia/Ukraine, while Rubio is kept in the dark.

Vance, btw, might be the most pro Russian/anti Ukraine person in the administration (other than Trump perhaps)
Do I understand correctly that there is now a dispute within the administration about whether this "peace plan" was written by Russians or Americans?
The last few hours have proven 2 terrible things. First, the US and Russian governments are so close that the US government takes large parts of Russian proposals and passes them off as their own, and second that some people are so desperate to exonerate Trump that they act like this a good thing.

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Naught for nothing, not only is this horrifying but if the orange conman is not in the Epstein files, like his followers believe, why are the survivors receiving death threats and since when did death threats become decriminalized?

#USDemocracy

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Group of Epstein abuse survivors say they have received death threats
In a signed statement, 28 victims say they are bracing for blame for their abuse and threats of harm
www.theguardian.com

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The proofreader deserves a medal
This is not a peace plan. It is a proposal that weakens Ukraine and divides America from Europe, preparing the way for a larger war in the future. In the meantime, it benefits unnamed Russian and American investors, at the expense of everyone else.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Trump Has a Recipe for War and Corruption, Not Peace
Who would benefit from the White House’s 28-point proposal for Ukraine?
www.theatlantic.com

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Latest from sources in Kyiv: US officials tell NATO nations that Zelenskyy will be pushed to sign the “peace plan” this week or face an even worse deal in future
US tells Nato if Zelenskyy does not sign peace deal Ukraine will face worse in future
‘No deal is perfect, but it must be done sooner rather than later,’ says US army secretary in sombre meeting
www.theguardian.com

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We can no longer rely on the US.

We must build a "NATO minus the US" framework now. Ready for the crunch.

It's a relatively easy governance design issue:

🔹 Keep the same NATO structures and processes.
🔹 Establish 'new NATO' framework in parallel
🔹 All withdraw from Washington Treaty
🔹 Switch over
Trump pushes Ukraine to accept plan ahead of deadline
US President Donald Trump has urged Ukraine to accept his administration's plan aimed at ending the war with Russia by ceding territory, saying his counterpart in Ukraine will "have to like it".
www.rte.ie