Steve Rayson
@steverayson.bsky.social
Author of The Fall of the Red Wall and Badgeland. Co-founder Buzzsumo and Kineo. My latest book is Collapse of the Conservatives.
Pinned
Steve Rayson
@steverayson.bsky.social
· Dec 5
My new book 'Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election' is now out! You can get a copy at amzn.to/48fzWsp
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Labour does so badly in this poll mainly because, as the tables show, they lose 29% of their 2024 vote to the Lib Dems and Greens.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
RFM: 27% (+12)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-17)
LDM: 15% (+3)
GRN: 13% (+6)
Via @veriangroup.com, 12-15 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2024.
December 20, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Labour does so badly in this poll mainly because, as the tables show, they lose 29% of their 2024 vote to the Lib Dems and Greens.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Interesting piece by Bloomberg’s Alan Crawford fleshing out my thesis on “collar flipping” in the UK, and how this might shift the political geography of the U.K. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The "collar flip"....what if class politics shifted in the UK?
Why the rise of AI, might change our politics in the UK (and US!)
open.substack.com
December 19, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Interesting piece by Bloomberg’s Alan Crawford fleshing out my thesis on “collar flipping” in the UK, and how this might shift the political geography of the U.K. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Putting to one side the objective wrongness of this, for Labour politically, it’s wildly misconceived. There is already an asteroid hurtling in their direction and, far from deflecting it, this is an invitation for all the asteroids to hit them at once.
Electoral Commission responds to potential election postponements
We are concerned by the possibility of some council elections in May being postponed, and even more by any further postponement to those which already had been deferred from 2025.
www.electoralcommission.org.uk
December 19, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Putting to one side the objective wrongness of this, for Labour politically, it’s wildly misconceived. There is already an asteroid hurtling in their direction and, far from deflecting it, this is an invitation for all the asteroids to hit them at once.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Cutting the number of lobby briefings in half is one thing.
Saying they will simply cancel the briefings altogether on some days, in exchange for 'press conferences' where they choose which news organisations they can exclude questions from is quite another.
Saying they will simply cancel the briefings altogether on some days, in exchange for 'press conferences' where they choose which news organisations they can exclude questions from is quite another.
December 18, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Cutting the number of lobby briefings in half is one thing.
Saying they will simply cancel the briefings altogether on some days, in exchange for 'press conferences' where they choose which news organisations they can exclude questions from is quite another.
Saying they will simply cancel the briefings altogether on some days, in exchange for 'press conferences' where they choose which news organisations they can exclude questions from is quite another.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
The Labour government has today asked Conservative-led West Sussex County Council to decide if they would like an extra year in power.
This looks like another anti-democratic stitch up.
Elections must go ahead.
Sign my petition here: www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/campaigns/st...
This looks like another anti-democratic stitch up.
Elections must go ahead.
Sign my petition here: www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/campaigns/st...
December 18, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The Labour government has today asked Conservative-led West Sussex County Council to decide if they would like an extra year in power.
This looks like another anti-democratic stitch up.
Elections must go ahead.
Sign my petition here: www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/campaigns/st...
This looks like another anti-democratic stitch up.
Elections must go ahead.
Sign my petition here: www.midsussexlibdems.org.uk/campaigns/st...
Really enjoyed this informative podcast from @markpackuk.bsky.social with @psurridge.bsky.social and @robfordmancs.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
Have we become too critical of Labour's general election campaign?
Podcast Episode · Never Mind The Bar Charts · 14/12/2025 · 59m
podcasts.apple.com
December 15, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Really enjoyed this informative podcast from @markpackuk.bsky.social with @psurridge.bsky.social and @robfordmancs.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/n...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Catch-up: British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure. Dieter Helm (3 Nov) via Ian Leslie dieterhelm.co.uk/energy-clima...
British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure - Dieter Helm
Some people – and some politicians – seem to believe that if you keep repeating claims eventually they will be believed, even as the evidence unfolds that they are obviously just not true. Any counter...
dieterhelm.co.uk
December 13, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Catch-up: British energy policy – not cheap, not home-grown and not secure. Dieter Helm (3 Nov) via Ian Leslie dieterhelm.co.uk/energy-clima...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.
The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.
The British General Election of 2024
The British General Election of 2024 is the definitive account of one of the most consequential elections in recent times.
link.springer.com
December 9, 2025 at 3:56 PM
The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.
The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Welcome to Britain, a country so short of dentists that an MP's 87-year-old mum pulled her teeth out with pliers. Also a country with thousands of foreign-qualified dentists who can’t work until they pass an exam so oversubscribed it’s like trying to book Glasto tickets. www.ft.com/content/f4e5...
December 9, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Welcome to Britain, a country so short of dentists that an MP's 87-year-old mum pulled her teeth out with pliers. Also a country with thousands of foreign-qualified dentists who can’t work until they pass an exam so oversubscribed it’s like trying to book Glasto tickets. www.ft.com/content/f4e5...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Double whammy of BGE 2024 advent calender posts today (yesterday was the department Christmas party). So far we have learned a little about the campaign - did Labour's tax pledges matter? (not really) How did the campaign go for Labour (not well). Now two posts on how 2024 changed the Commons...
Here's a graph of how party support evolved daily through the campaign in 2024, according to the BES internet panel. The biggest losers from the 2024 campaign were...Labour, who fell from mid 40s to high 30s (and were overstated in final polling). Big winners were Reform, esp post Farage return
December 4, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Double whammy of BGE 2024 advent calender posts today (yesterday was the department Christmas party). So far we have learned a little about the campaign - did Labour's tax pledges matter? (not really) How did the campaign go for Labour (not well). Now two posts on how 2024 changed the Commons...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
If Labour MPs think abstaining or voting against a particular measure will save their seats, I suspect my @qmulsse.bsky.social colleague @philipjcowley.bsky.social has a bridge to sell them.
Rachel Reeves hit by Labour rural rebellion over inheritance tax on farmers
A number of Labour MPs in rural seats declined to back the government's move to impose inheritance tax on farmers, but just one voted against.
news.sky.com
December 3, 2025 at 7:17 AM
If Labour MPs think abstaining or voting against a particular measure will save their seats, I suspect my @qmulsse.bsky.social colleague @philipjcowley.bsky.social has a bridge to sell them.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Extraordinary WSJ reporting today that unveils the extent to which Trump, Witkoff, Kushner and US business executives are salivating over business deals with Russia while Putin’s forces kidnap Ukranian children and bomb civilians in their apartments.
🎁 www.wsj.com/world/russia...
🎁 www.wsj.com/world/russia...
November 29, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Extraordinary WSJ reporting today that unveils the extent to which Trump, Witkoff, Kushner and US business executives are salivating over business deals with Russia while Putin’s forces kidnap Ukranian children and bomb civilians in their apartments.
🎁 www.wsj.com/world/russia...
🎁 www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
Rachel Reeves hits young graduates with a double stealth tax
The Chancellor plans to raise as much money from freezing loan repayment thresholds as from the mansion tax
www.newstatesman.com
November 27, 2025 at 1:04 PM
I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇
Reposted by Steve Rayson
This was a Budget born of political and intellectual weakness, not strength
Labour has to realise that moving the pieces on the board is not e enough. Affluence is essential for social democracy. And there isn't a plan to create it.
Latest from me 👇
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Labour has to realise that moving the pieces on the board is not e enough. Affluence is essential for social democracy. And there isn't a plan to create it.
Latest from me 👇
substack.com/home/post/p-...
A budget born of weakness, not of strength
Labour needs affluence to remake society. Yet it seems curiously uninterested in creating it.
substack.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:21 PM
This was a Budget born of political and intellectual weakness, not strength
Labour has to realise that moving the pieces on the board is not e enough. Affluence is essential for social democracy. And there isn't a plan to create it.
Latest from me 👇
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Labour has to realise that moving the pieces on the board is not e enough. Affluence is essential for social democracy. And there isn't a plan to create it.
Latest from me 👇
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
we reported after Rayner's departure that employment rights bill would be watered down, and ministers denied it over and over again:
here is the first new major compromise:
www.ft.com/content/3391...
here is the first new major compromise:
www.ft.com/content/3391...
Labour retreats on ‘day one’ rights for workers
Government has softened its package of measures to boost employment rights
www.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 5:28 PM
we reported after Rayner's departure that employment rights bill would be watered down, and ministers denied it over and over again:
here is the first new major compromise:
www.ft.com/content/3391...
here is the first new major compromise:
www.ft.com/content/3391...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Read on for our answer...
@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Peter Kyle’s performance on Times Radio is the kind of political interview that makes any sane listener want to chew off their own thumbs.
Politicians have no right to complain about crises of trust when this is how they talk. It’s such a dire way of doing things.
Politicians have no right to complain about crises of trust when this is how they talk. It’s such a dire way of doing things.
November 24, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Peter Kyle’s performance on Times Radio is the kind of political interview that makes any sane listener want to chew off their own thumbs.
Politicians have no right to complain about crises of trust when this is how they talk. It’s such a dire way of doing things.
Politicians have no right to complain about crises of trust when this is how they talk. It’s such a dire way of doing things.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
People voted in a Labour government by a landslide because they wanted something meaningful to change. Labour has, ever since securing that win, done everything in its power to signal it won't change anything very much.
November 21, 2025 at 10:04 PM
People voted in a Labour government by a landslide because they wanted something meaningful to change. Labour has, ever since securing that win, done everything in its power to signal it won't change anything very much.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
It’s not a “peace proposal”. It’s an aggressor’s charter, with the US facilitating the demands of the invader.
It’s very surprising that some people are still calling the Trump peace plan the Witkoff plan. Nothing could be further from the truth. The White House has come out and claimed the plan for its own and said it wants it implemented. www.cnn.com/2025/11/20/p...
Trump’s 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine would require land concessions and military reduction | CNN Politics
A new Trump administration plan for the end of the war in Ukraine would see Kyiv cede territory to Russia, US “de facto” recognition of Crimea and other Ukrainian territory forcibly seized by the Krem...
www.cnn.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:26 PM
It’s not a “peace proposal”. It’s an aggressor’s charter, with the US facilitating the demands of the invader.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Me: Why are so many students referencing the same paper from 50 years ago that we definitely didn’t cover in class? So weird.
Me after asking the quiz question to ChatGPT: Ah, okay, never mind.
Me after asking the quiz question to ChatGPT: Ah, okay, never mind.
November 20, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Me: Why are so many students referencing the same paper from 50 years ago that we definitely didn’t cover in class? So weird.
Me after asking the quiz question to ChatGPT: Ah, okay, never mind.
Me after asking the quiz question to ChatGPT: Ah, okay, never mind.
The state pension is less than half of the minimum wage. We have to encourage more pension saving, instead Rachel Reeves is proposing to limit salary sacrifice which will reduce pension saving. Just crazy and economically illiterate as it reduces economic investment.
November 20, 2025 at 11:06 AM
The state pension is less than half of the minimum wage. We have to encourage more pension saving, instead Rachel Reeves is proposing to limit salary sacrifice which will reduce pension saving. Just crazy and economically illiterate as it reduces economic investment.
Reposted by Steve Rayson
Peter Kellner has done the crunching of those YouGov numbers on tactical voting: Reform lose about 100 seats, half to Tories, half to Lab kellnerp.substack.com/p/one-hundre...
One hundred ways to thwart Reform
How tactical voting could stop Nigel Farage becoming prime minister
kellnerp.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Peter Kellner has done the crunching of those YouGov numbers on tactical voting: Reform lose about 100 seats, half to Tories, half to Lab kellnerp.substack.com/p/one-hundre...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
📊 NEW | As Labour announces fresh crackdown on refugees, their approval falls to an all-time low.
✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)
Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)
Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
November 17, 2025 at 2:16 PM
📊 NEW | As Labour announces fresh crackdown on refugees, their approval falls to an all-time low.
✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)
Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
✅ Satisfied – 11% (-1)
❌ Dissatisfied – 82% (-)
Via @IpsosUK, 30 Oct - 5 Nov (+/- vs 11-17 Sep)
Reposted by Steve Rayson
I've been out canvassing quite a lot in London lately. Labour's vote has absolutely evaporated.... it is quite extraordinary to go to places where Labour were on 50-60% of the vote at the last locals and find nobody, or virtually nobody, supporting them.
The phrase 'I voted Labour last time, but...
The phrase 'I voted Labour last time, but...
November 18, 2025 at 11:51 AM
I've been out canvassing quite a lot in London lately. Labour's vote has absolutely evaporated.... it is quite extraordinary to go to places where Labour were on 50-60% of the vote at the last locals and find nobody, or virtually nobody, supporting them.
The phrase 'I voted Labour last time, but...
The phrase 'I voted Labour last time, but...
Reposted by Steve Rayson
I simply do not understand how the govt can simultaneously believe (1) they don’t have enough political capital to breach the manifesto on tax and (2) they have enough to political capital to pick an unwinnable fight with their own MPs on immigration.
November 17, 2025 at 11:01 AM
I simply do not understand how the govt can simultaneously believe (1) they don’t have enough political capital to breach the manifesto on tax and (2) they have enough to political capital to pick an unwinnable fight with their own MPs on immigration.