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Paul Gronke

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H-index: 22
Political science 46%
Economics 14%
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by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
Why would you want to give free college tuition to a rich family? That’s a silly proposal.
2

Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Brendan Nyhan, Tom Clark , and 6 more

robertmackey.bsky.social
The Oregon Republican Party tried to help Donald Trump make the case for military intervention in Portland with an image of a fiery protest — but since Portland is calm, they had to fabricate one by merging old photos of police in Ecuador and protesters in Brazil www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Republicans post fake image of Oregon protest – using photos of South America
A federal judge had blocked Trump’s request to deploy California national guard to Portland
www.theguardian.com
110 1.9K 3.6K

by Nancy Kanwisher — Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Dorothy Bishop, Joshua S. Weitz , and 4 more

I am proud of MIT, where our branch of AAUP has voted unanimously to endorse this statement urging MIT leadership and the MIT Corporation to reject the Compact wholesale
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Letter Regarding Compact
MIT Chapter of the American Association of University Professors October 6, 2025 Statement on the “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” MIT has been invited by the federal governmen...
docs.google.com
11 170 730

by Brendan Nyhan — Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Lisa W. Fazio, David Lazer , and 17 more

brendannyhan.bsky.social
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:

Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
7 190 550

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
4/ I may be missing something, but confirmed my sense with @electionstudies.bsky.social .

Nothing statistically incorrect in the book -- that's important to note. I was just surprised to see that fairly elaborate weight adjustment suggested right up front. for use of the ANES.

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
3/ .. in the book and post

"If we want to make inferences about the entire U.S. population, we need to adjust the weights."

I don't think that's correct. You can make inferences about the population percentage who voted, for instance, just not the population NUMBER.
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by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
2/ Using the weights provided with the ANES without the extra process the post describes does allow inference to the sample population -- as long as by this we mean statistical quantities and not population or subgroup N's.

I was surprised to see the CPS process at the start, and a statement ...2/
1

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
@ivelasq3.bsky.social The new book on survey weighting in R is amazing but you may want to reconsider the first section on weighting the ANES (summarized at this post www.r-bloggers.com/2025/08/anes...)

I don't think many end users produce "population size" estimates, as the book describes. 1/
ANES 2024 is Out! How to Analyze the Data with R | R-bloggers
Last fall, my co-authors Stephanie Zimmer, Rebecca Powell, and I released Exploring Complex Survey Data Analysis Using R. Earlier this August, we had the joy of teaching a workshop based on the book a...
www.r-bloggers.com
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by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
Not as in depth as you of course, but I have found that the hallucination rate has gone WAY down in the past 12-18 months. I almost never get fake packages / commands any more.
2

Reposted by: Paul Gronke

governor.ca.gov
A glimpse into Trump's make-believe world of "giant water valves" in Northern California…
A fictional giant faucet.
500 1.5K 5.1K

by Seth Masket — Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan , and 4 more

brandonfriedman.bsky.social
JD Vance is suddenly opposed to gerrymandering. Someone tell Greg Abbott.
@JDVance on X: The gerrymander in California is outrageous. Of their 52 congressional districts, 9 of them are Republican. That means 17 percent of their delegation is Republican when Republicans regularly win 40 percent of the vote in that state. How can this possibly be allowed?
110 200 1K

Reposted by: Paul Gronke

evanbernick.bsky.social
BREAKING: The Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to excavate from Antarctic ice an extraterrestrial life-form, colloquially known as “The Thing,” that assimilates, then imitates, other organisms en route to planetary conquest. The liberals dissent.
bykatiebuehler.bsky.social
Katie Buehler @bykatiebuehler.bsky.social · Jul 23
BREAKING: The Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to remove three members of the Consumer Product Safety Commission despite an ongoing legal battle over his authority to fire them without cause. The liberals dissent.
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
22 130 700

by Victor Pickard — Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Anna G. Busse, Joanna Bryson , and 8 more

adambonica.bsky.social
The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House.

When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.

For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
Infographic titled “One Court, Two Standards” compares how the Supreme Court used emergency powers to rule on lower-court injunctions against the Biden and Trump administrations. Two panels show: • Biden Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 21 cases. All 21 cases are represented by red squares, indicating that 0% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS. • Trump Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 86 cases. 66 green squares and 20 red squares show that 77% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS. Key takeaway box below reads: “Using its ‘shadow docket,’ the Supreme Court granted emergency relief to lift 77% of lower-court injunctions against the Trump administration. It lifted 0% of those against the Biden administration.” Sources and notes below include: CourtListener data through July 7, 2025; analysis by Adam Bonica.
110 2.4K 5.1K

Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Simon Hix, Fabrizio Gilardi , and 1 more

epssnet.bsky.social
📣 Mark your calendars: The first-ever EPSS Conference will be held in Belfast, 18–20 June 2026

Organized under our new not-for-profit model.

➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/

More details soon, so watch this space.

See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️
Belfast 2026 – EPSS
© 2025 – European Political Science CIC
epssnet.org
7 15

Reposted by: Paul Gronke

electionline.bsky.social
In the newser this week, a look at the declining job satisfaction among local election administrators, esp in small jurisdictions. That, plus so much more election news and info (and an Emmy winner!): electionline.org/electionline...
electionline Weekly - electionline
electionline.org
5

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
Looks like mine is much older - mid 1970s. "Super Deluxe" brand. Yours is a relative youth!
1

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
This decision to reverse an earlier decision that threw out a grants package is ultimately a good news story.

Learning when to lead and when to defer isn't easy. Glad to see the 7 members were willing to admit their error.

Now let's see if the lesson sticks.

www.wweek.com/news/city/20...
Amid Outcry, City Council Restores Portland Children’s Levy Grants Package
Close to ten BIPOC executive directors of nonprofit organizations testified to the council, railing them for rejecting the funding recommendations.
www.wweek.com

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
That's so funny. I looked up the manufacturer. They dominated the desk fan market for something like 30 years.

For my office, it's really important because it's in a renovated house with 1920s duct work. The AC doesn't get pushed at all, but the fan makes it work.

And it looks really cool!
1 2

Reposted by: Paul Gronke

fairvote.bsky.social
NYC just used #RankedChoiceVoting in its city primaries.

FairVote CEO Meredith Sumpter explains how RCV delivered more choice, more competition, and better campaigns for NYC voters. 👀
4 11

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
I read Wikipedia now I have heard of both of them! 🤫
1 2

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
He was acting Mayor!
1 2

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
POTUS and administration claims about the results of the bombing were nearly a complete fabrication / fantasy/ wishful thinking?

I’m shocked!

Reposted by: Paul Gronke

dwillis.bsky.social
Every time I hear about the dangers of electing inexperienced people to be a NYC mayor, I think about how Vincent Impellitteri, an absolute nobody, became acting mayor, lost the primary and then won running as the “Experience Party” candidate:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent...
Vincent R. Impellitteri - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
2 4 5

Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Jennifer Bussell, Jesse H. Kroll , and 15 more

dangaristo.bsky.social
NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years.

NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."
110 1.5K 2.8K

by Paul Gronke — Reposted by: Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
Sad to be missing #esra2025 due to a series of flight delays that would get me there a day late.

But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight.

#electionscience #aesra #esra2025
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by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
Life must be difficult as an upright biped with no spine.
ronfilipkowski.bsky.social
Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · Jun 9
Profiles in Courage
2

Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Joseph A. McCartin

cafastfoodunion.org
This is the spirit of Los Angeles.

This is California.

Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

#FreeDavidEndRaids
370 5.4K 19K

Reposted by: Paul Gronke

ronfilipkowski.bsky.social
Profiles in Courage
1.8K 1.9K 9.6K

Reposted by: Paul Gronke, Jesse H. Kroll, Alexandra Cirone , and 1 more

donmoyn.bsky.social
Midnight, June 7 is the deadline to comment on the revised Schedule F, Trump's plan to politicize the civil servants by converting them into at-will appointees that can be fired for the mildest pushback against illegal actions.
It's easy - here is how:
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/last-day-t...
Last day to weigh in on Trump's plan to politicize the civil service
Trump has already shown us how he would use Schedule F powers
donmoynihan.substack.com
43 560 690

by Paul Gronke

pgronke.bsky.social
I understand that, but can’t see how any weight adjustments from preliminary to final is going to move vote choice 5-6%.

Either I am making a basic error in the table or there’s something else more serious going on that a weight adjustment based on demographics alone won’t fix.

References

Fields & subjects

Updated 1m