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Tomasz Mickiewicz

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H-index: 38
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Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
“.. Lower population growth as the president presses ahead with mass deportations will knock between 0.5 and one percentage points off America’s GDP growth between mid-2025 and mid-2026, according to S&P Global Ratings.”

@telegraphnews.bsky.social
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
110 970 2.1K

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

mikeeckel.bsky.social
"Russia’s oil refineries are a bit like a man who is being repeatedly punched. He will not die from one punch, or even half a dozen punches. But it becomes harder and harder for him to recover after each subsequent blow."
carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Have Ukrainian Drones Really Knocked Out 38% of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity?
Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign on Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel.
carnegieendowment.org
21 61

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Inflation down in Euro area (2.0% compared to 2.2% year ago), and the same as year ago in the EU (2.4%). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
Annual inflation stable at 2.0% in the euro area
Overview The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.0% in August 2025, stable compared to July. A year earlier, the rate was 2.2%. European Union annual inflation was 2.4% in August 2025, stable compar...
ec.europa.eu

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Broad tariffs downsides: "Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised, the tax system would be less progressive, and there would be serious tax administration concerns. ... Broad tariffs generate a large negative supply shock ..." www.nber.org/papers/w3419...
Tariffs as Fiscal Policy
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomcalver.bsky.social
NEW: Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, 17 out of 27 EU nations have spent more on Russian oil and gas than they’ve sent to Ukraine in aid!

Despite an oil embargo, Europe is still sending £1bn a month on Russian energy.

This week’s column:

www.thetimes.com/article/dd9d...
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Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

igorsushko.bsky.social
Russia: Fuel crisis is spreading rapidly and has now reached Lipetsk region, located north of Voronezh and south of Moscow.
8 58 310

by Anne Applebaum — Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

anneapplebaum.bsky.social
The US is a major importer of Indian products made of Russian oil @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/09/08/n...
The U.S. is a major importer of Indian products made from Russian oil
The United States imports oil products from India's Reliance Industries refinery, which sources nearly half its oil from Russia.
www.npr.org
12 180 440

by Iikka Korhonen — Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz, Iikka Korhonen

iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
Quite significant downward revisions of #Russia GDP forecasts.

In 2025 from 2.5% to 1%
In 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%
jasoncorcoran.bsky.social
Jason Corcoran @jasoncorcoran.bsky.social · 13d
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development today significantly downgraded its forecast for the Russian economy.
● Kommersant, the business newspaper, published and immediately deleted the news item as it hadn't been made public. Source: @the_ins_ru
theins.ru/news/285214?
The Bell: Минэкономразвития ухудшило прогноз по развитию российской экономики. «Коммерсантъ» опубликовал и сразу удалил новость об этом
24 сентября Минфин РФ внес в правительство поправки в закон о бюджете на 2025 год, проект федерального бюджета на 2026–2028 годы (предполагающий повышение НДС с 20 до 22%) и изменения в Бюджетный и На...
theins.ru
1 16 31

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz, Christian Odendahl, Georg Weizsäcker , and 2 more

sbeverts.bsky.social
European governments voting with their money. Only 8% of new German defence procurement planned to go to US companies. Wise move.
Germany’s €80B rearmament plan sidelines US weapons
A procurement plan obtained by POLITICO shows Berlin’s rearmament spree will overwhelmingly benefit European industry.
www.politico.eu
6 19 72

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz, Iikka Korhonen

phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Just sent out this piece. We are starting to get some decent data on the Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries--seeing what they are attacking and when. It’s revealing about their strategy and points out how the campaign is poised to develop. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
An Update On The Ukrainian Campaign Against Russian Refineries
Hi All,
open.substack.com
6 90 360

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
European unemployment rate went up during the COVID pandemics of 2020, but the downward trend continues since then, according to the latest Eurostat data. ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
Euro area unemployment at 6.2%
Overview In July 2025, the euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.2%, down from 6.3% in June 2025 and from 6.4% in July 2024. The EU unemployment rate was 5.9% in July 2025, also down f...
ec.europa.eu
1

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

teroterotero.bsky.social
Finland-Russia life expectancy gap is the largest border gap in the world
12 38 160

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Poland and Romania have the lowest vacancy rates in the EU (the number of available, unfilled jobs relative to the total number of positions in the economy). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
Euro area job vacancy rate at 2.2%
Overview In the second quarter of 2025, the job vacancy rate was 2.2% in the euro area, a decrease from 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025 and from 2.6% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the ...
ec.europa.eu
1

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
40% (!) of Chinese urban workers (and 25% total) have short-term, on demand job contracts, many in manufacturing. They gain flexibility but at cost of not upgrading their skills, no provision for pensions, no stability and families. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
China’s future rests on 200m precarious workers
They may work in factories or for delivery apps, but are united by common struggles
www.economist.com
1

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz, Richard S.J. Tol, Pitirim A. Sorokin

antongerashchenko.bsky.social
Poland has closed its border with Belarus due to Zapad-2025 military exercises by Russia and Belarus and Russian drones flying into Poland.

This cuts off a €25-billion-a-year trade artery between China and the EU -
58 480 1.5K

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz, Anna O. Law, Jonathan A. Eisen , and 14 more

crampell.bsky.social
according to an immigration attorney representing several arrested workers, ICE agents chose to arrest the Korean workers to fulfill the quota of 3,000 daily immigrant arrests set by Stephen Miller www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...
Stephen Miller’s Quota Likely Drove Korean Arrests In Immigration Raid
When ICE agents arrested over 300 Korean workers at a Georgia battery plant, a daily immigrant arrest quota was likely on their minds.
www.forbes.com
590 4.6K 11K

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Employment rate in the European Union (age 20-64) continues to grow in 2025Q2 compared to 2025Q1, and is now at 76.2%. But the two worst performers are Hungary (-.5% change) and Italy (-.3% change). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
Employment rate up in Q2 2025
In the second quarter of 2025, the employment rate of people aged 20-64 in the EU stood at 76.2%, up from 76.1% in the first quarter of 2025. Labour market slack – all persons who have an unmet need ...
ec.europa.eu
1 1

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
They say it's better to be lucky than good. That's the story of France since Jay Powell's very dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August 22. That speech has sent US long-term yields a lot lower (blue), which has also pulled down French yields (red). Breathing space for France...
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by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
"Manufacturing shed 12,000 jobs, bringing total losses to 78,000 this year. The mining sector, which includes oil and gas, lost 6,000 jobs in August, while employment in wholesale trade has fallen by 32,000 this year."
on.ft.com/4nuyN6y
US companies put brakes on hiring after Donald Trump’s tariffs hit
Industries most exposed to rising costs caused by trade wars launch wave of job cuts
on.ft.com
2

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Denmark announced the record air defence contract and is not buying from US on.ft.com/3HVeSPq
Denmark chooses European air defences over US Patriots
Copenhagen places record order as relations with Trump administration come under strain over Greenland
on.ft.com
2 6

by Justin Wolfers — Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

justinwolfers.bsky.social
The only things that have kept the United States out of being a major global coffee supplier are climate, altitude, and soil, and fortunately we have a 50% tariff on Brazil which will solve these, reducing our dependence on foreign beans.
43 190 810

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
For the first time, they did: Polish and Dutch F15 & F35 responded. This provocation is a result of Alaska & Beijing meetings and Putin feeling reassured. This is why we also have the latest barbaric attacks on Ukrainian cities.
1 2 13

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Over 20 Russian drones fired into Poland from Belarus during the night. Some were shot by Polish and Dutch F15 & F35 (see below). Poland initiates NATO discussion to use Article 4.
wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/polska/pierw...
Pierwsza w historii taka akcja NATO. Jest nagranie ze strącenia rosyjskiego drona
Siły NATO, w tym polskie F-16, holenderskie F-35 i włoskie AWACS, zareagowały na naruszenie polskiej przestrzeni powietrznej przez rosyjskie drony, co było pierwszym takim działaniem w historii sojusz...
wiadomosci.radiozet.pl
1

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
"International students, particularly in STEM fields, play a critical role in shaping host countries' innovation ecosystems, often transitioning to permanent residents and STEM workers." www.nber.org/papers/w3421...
International Students, Immigration Policies and Implications for Innovation
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
1 1

by Tomasz Mickiewicz

tomekmickiewicz.bsky.social
Erosion of institutions has serious consequences for economic performance. Yet the process is gradual: tipping points are difficult to identify. And economic effects are not immediate so also difficult to detect on time.
justinwolfers.bsky.social
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · Sep 7
Lemme speak with directness and a sense of urgency about our most important economic threats, and what history teaches us about moments like this.

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz, Jonathan Portes, Joanna Bryson , and 23 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Highest level of support since Gallup started asking this question a quarter century ago
Americans' Views on Immigration's Effect on the U.S. On the whole, do you think immigration is a good thing or a bad thing for this country today? — % Good thing - - % Bad thing 100% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 79 17 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 The percentages who volunteer that the effects are "mixed" or who do not have an opinion are not shown. GALLUP®
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by Justin Wolfers — Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz, Laurens Swinkels, Maksym Polyakov , and 1 more

justinwolfers.bsky.social
Lemme speak with directness and a sense of urgency about our most important economic threats, and what history teaches us about moments like this.
140 1.8K 4.1K

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. Pricing power is now the most frequently mentioned tariff mitigation strategy, even edging out supply chain diversification.

“.. Consumer Goods prices are likely to firm as tariffs ripple through the system.”
19 40 230

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz

phillipspobrien.bsky.social
Hi All, Just released my free weekend update. The big story this week the Ukrainians keeping up their ranged campaign against Russian oil refineries and pipelines--and having strategic effect. Putin is warning Russians about shortages and Fico is making nice. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Weekend Update #149: The Ranged Campaign Against Russian Oil Production Continues
Russian Ground Advances Slow; Putin Wants To Live Forever--So Maybe Won't Nuke The World
open.substack.com
11 140 500

Reposted by: Tomasz Mickiewicz, Robert N. Stavins, Steve Peers , and 4 more

ronfilipkowski.bsky.social
When even Rand Paul thinks you’re despicable.
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