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Kimberly A. Clausing

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Kimberly Clausing is an American economist. She is the Eric M. Zolt Chair in Tax Law and Policy at… more

Kimberly A. Clausing
H-index: 24
Economics 51%
Business 36%
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing

nber.org
Assessing how the greater reliance of fiscal policy on tariffs will affect the US tax system, from @kclausing.bsky.social and Maurice Obstfeld https://www.nber.org/papers/w34192
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by Aaron Sojourner — Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing

aaronsojourner.org
"While maintaining tariff rates at summer 2025 levels would generate large government revenues, such broad tariffs have significant downsides: Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised..."
@kclausing.bsky.social #EconSky
www.nber.org/papers/w34192
. Tariffs as Fiscal Policy Kimberly A. Clausing, Maurice Obstfeld #34192 Abstract: The year 2025 brought a remarkable shift in the role of tariffs in the US economy, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated the use of broad tariffs and ensured that Congress enacted large income tax cuts. This fiscal switch has important implications for the US tax system. While maintaining tariff rates at summer 2025 levels would generate large government revenues, such broad tariffs have significant downsides: Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised, the tax system would be less progressive, and there would be serious tax administration concerns. The fiscal shift also has significant macroeconomic implications, although probably not the intended ones. Broad tariffs generate a large negative supply shock, simultaneously raising prices and reducing macroeconomic activity.
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing, Stephen M. Walt, Kim L. Scheppele , and 24 more

fishkin.bsky.social
I thought I'd put the administration's proposed "compact" with universities in context, so I wrote the blog post below.

It's especially for journalists covering this story!

Many details about how the compact itself works and why the administration has retreated to this strategy.
Balkinization: The Art of Replacing the Law with the Deal
A group blog on constitutional law, theory, and politics
balkin.blogspot.com
12 260 540

by John Bistline — Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing

bistline.bsky.social
Great paper measuring the current costs of climate inaction in the U.S. @kclausing.bsky.social, @knittelmit.bsky.social, and @cwolfram.bsky.social find that wildfire smoke and higher insurance drive household costs more than direct temperature-related effects, both for costs and mortality risks.
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing

bbkogan.bsky.social
Happy fiscal new year! Off to a rough start 🥲
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(7/7) For more on a comparison of relevant climate policy actions for the United States, see this recent work:

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

ceepr.mit.edu/wp-content/u...
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(6/7) While costs are relatively modest so far, the costs of climate inaction are likely to rise steeply in the years ahead, illustrating the importance of climate action. Even focusing *solely* on US benefits, many climate policy interventions will have benefits that exceed their costs.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(5/7) Further, climate policy *inaction* is regressive, harming poorer counties and households disproportionately. Poorer counties are more exposed to risks such as wildfire particulates, and the higher costs of home insurance and cooling are a larger share of income for poorer households.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(4/7) In the United States, natural disasters are far more consequential than heat, for both costs and mortality risks. Increased particulate matter from smoke causes more deaths than heat (as cold deaths fall); home insurance price increases are more important than higher cooling costs.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(3/7) When it comes to climate change, “blue” counties and “red” counties suffer similarly, with slightly higher costs for Trump-voting counties in comparison to Harris-voting counties.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(2/7) Guided by the literature, we examine several key vectors through which climate inaction affects households. Overall, household damages total nearly $600 by one estimate, and damages reach about $900 for ten percent of households.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing — Reposted by: Robert Wolfe, John Bistline, Antonio Fatás

kclausing.bsky.social
🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu.

We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income.

www.brookings.edu/articles/who...
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(8/8) Such broad tariffs are also quite challenging for the macroeconomy, as they entail a large negative supply shock. Further, tariffs are likely to harm both the US investment climate and US manufacturing.

For more, read the paper!
www.piie.com/publications...
Tariffs as Fiscal Policy
The year 2025 brought a remarkable shift in the role of tariffs in the US economy, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated the use of broad tariffs and ensured that Congress enacted large...
www.piie.com
10

by Kimberly A. Clausing — Reposted by: Aaron Sojourner

kclausing.bsky.social
(7/8) Together with the OBBBA, this fiscal switch of lower income tax revenues, higher tariff revenues, and spending cuts targeting poorer Americans will leave most Americans with lower after-tax incomes.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing — Reposted by: Daniel W. Drezner, Robert Wolfe, Simon Lester

kclausing.bsky.social
(6/8) In terms of progressivity, tariffs are far less progressive than the income tax; they harm poor and middle-class Americans more than rich Americans for the simple reason that they fall on consumption, not savings, and savings rates increase with income.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(5/8) In terms of efficiency, tariffs perform poorly relative to other tax instruments, for reasons discussed at length in the paper. At current levels, efficiency losses approach one third of revenue raised.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(4/8) Once accounting for mechanical offsets, our revenue findings are compatible with recent 10-year estimates of tariff revenues, but readers should note these studies are not strictly comparable, and exemptions and evasion might reduce revenues further.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(3/8) In terms of revenue, we calculate tariff “Laffer curves” under multiple modeling assumptions, finding that tariff revenues peak at a level far short of what it would take to replace (or even dramatically reduce) income tax revenues.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
(2/8) While tariffs have long been employed for various narrow aims, their use in today’s US economy is far more significant. Tariffs are a tax. In our paper, we evaluate the use of tariffs by broad tax policy criteria: revenue, efficiency, progressivity, and tax administration.
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by Kimberly A. Clausing — Reposted by: Robert Wolfe, Simon Lester

kclausing.bsky.social
🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @piie.com. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy.

www.piie.com/publications...
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
Lovely piece on the importance of conversation across political divides.

wapo.st/4gAmDHg
Column | A dying man said he found the key to happiness. Science backs him up.
Ted Pellegatta was a MAGA supporter beloved by liberals in Sperryville, Virginia, whose friends transcended political allegiances.
wapo.st
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing, Aaron Sojourner

brendanvduke.bsky.social
The Trump Administration’s continued efforts to break the 2025 funding deal reached in March are seriously undermining efforts to reach a funding agreement for 2026 because lawmakers need to know if they reach a deal, it will be kept. 🧵
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by Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
With international efforts more difficult than ever, it is essential that willing jurisdictions buttress climate cooperation.

A big shout out re. this new & important report, from a team led by @cwolfram.bsky.social. I was honored to be part of the working group.

Read her thread, then the report!
cwolfram.bsky.social
Catherine Wolfram @cwolfram.bsky.social · 21d
I'm delighted to announce the release of the Flagship Report of the Global Climate Policy Project at Harvard and MIT Working Group on Climate Coalitions on "Building a Climate Coalition: Aligning Carbon Pricing, Trade, and Development."

ceepr.link/3VmgC7g

A 🧵 on what we do/find:
ceepr.link
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing

cwolfram.bsky.social
I'm delighted to announce the release of the Flagship Report of the Global Climate Policy Project at Harvard and MIT Working Group on Climate Coalitions on "Building a Climate Coalition: Aligning Carbon Pricing, Trade, and Development."

ceepr.link/3VmgC7g

A 🧵 on what we do/find:
ceepr.link
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing, Peter Holmes

scottlincicome.bsky.social
"Lesotho Sends Trade Delegation to US to Plead for Lower Tariffs" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The country ranks 167th in gdp per capita (PPP); has 40% of its population living in poverty; and has 24-28% unemployment.

Shameful stuff.
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing

kylemeng.com
Today marks a major development in U.S. climate policy.

Gov. Newsom, the CA Assembly & Senate just released the final cap-and-trade—now called cap-and-invest—reauthorization bill: AB 1207. 1/

#climatesky #energysky
leginfo.legislature.ca.gov
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing

bbkogan.bsky.social
100 years from now when transportation is fully autonomous, people aren’t gonna believe we used to drive ourselves around

“So people just had to get really good at driving so no one died in crashes?”

“Oh, people died all the time. There were actually more car deaths than murders every year.”
News: Sen. Josh Hawley is serious about banning self-driving cars, tells me he's planning legislation on this soon. "I think we ought to ban autonomous vehicles," he told me, calling them "not safe" and saying it would be "terrible for working people" if they become the norm. 1:53 PM • 9/9/25 • 18K Views
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by Kimberly A. Clausing — Reposted by: Dani Rodrik, Richard S.J. Tol

kclausing.bsky.social
Because we need more abusive tax shelters in the world...

Trump Administration Halts I.R.S. Crackdown on Major Tax Shelters www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...
Trump Administration Halts I.R.S. Crackdown on Major Tax Shelters
www.nytimes.com
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing, Mark D. White, David Rothschild , and 6 more

reichlinmelnick.bsky.social
🚨The Supreme Court today gives Trump a license to engage in racial profiling, with Justice Kavanaugh writing in concurrence to expressly endorse ICE and Border Patrol targeting any Latinos they observe in Los Angeles speaking Spanish and then demanding their papers.
Here, those circumstances include: that there is an extremely high number and percentage of illegal immigrants in the Los Angeles area; that those individuals tend to gather in certain locations to seek daily work; that those individuals often work in certain kinds of jobs, such as day labor, landscaping, agriculture, and construction, that do not require paperwork and are therefore especially attractive to illegal immigrants; and that many of those illegally in the Los Angeles area come from Mexico or Central America and do not speak much English. Cf. Brignoni-Ponce, 422 U.S., at 884-885 (listing "[a]ny number of factors" that contribute to reasonable suspicion of illegal presence). To be clear, apparent ethnicity alone cannot furnish reasonable suspicion; under this Court's case law regarding immigration stops, however, it can be a KAVANAUGH, J., concurring "relevant factor" when considered along with other salient factors. Id., at 887. Under this Court's precedents, not to mention common sense, those circumstances taken together can constitute at least reasonable suspicion of illegal presence in the United States. Importantly, reasonable suspicion means only that immigration officers may briefly stop the individual and inquire about immigration status. If the person is a U.S. citizen or otherwise lawfully in the United States, that individual will be free to go after the brief encounter. Only if the person is illegally in the United States may the stop lead to further immigration proceedings.
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Reposted by: Kimberly A. Clausing, Jonathan Portes, Joanna Bryson , and 23 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Highest level of support since Gallup started asking this question a quarter century ago
Americans' Views on Immigration's Effect on the U.S. On the whole, do you think immigration is a good thing or a bad thing for this country today? — % Good thing - - % Bad thing 100% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 79 17 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 The percentages who volunteer that the effects are "mixed" or who do not have an opinion are not shown. GALLUP®
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