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Paul Gronke

@pgronke.bsky.social

920 followers 110 following 90 posts

Professor, director, gardener, and a few other things. I mainly do elections. Follow my work at HTTP://EVIC.reed.edu LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-gronke-83452311/

Videos

Political science 46%

Economics 14%

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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 14h

This to me is the central challenge. With 40 years of statistical programming under my belt — all the way back to APL and Fortran — I can fashion highly focused queries and evaluate the results.

Not sure what I’d do if I were teaching stats.

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 14h

This has not been my experience, not by a long shot.

I find the LLMs produce workable code for most of my low level needs, dramatically reduce my search time for more complex tasks, and have helped complete tasks that otherwise would be beyond my capabilities.

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 3d

Why would you want to give free college tuition to a rich family? That’s a silly proposal.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Tom Clark, Rosemary A. Joyce , and 6 more Brendan Nyhan, Tom Clark, Rosemary A. Joyce, Daniel W. Drezner, R. M. Wilson, Dean Eckles, Paul Gronke, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Robert Mackey @robertmackey.bsky.social · 3d

The Oregon Republican Party tried to help Donald Trump make the case for military intervention in Portland with an image of a fiery protest — but since Portland is calm, they had to fabricate one by merging old photos of police in Ecuador and protesters in Brazil www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Republicans post fake image of Oregon protest – using photos of South America

A federal judge had blocked Trump’s request to deploy California national guard to Portland

www.theguardian.com

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Reposted by Dorothy Bishop, Joshua S. Weitz, Scott L. Greer , and 4 more Dorothy Bishop, Joshua S. Weitz, Scott L. Greer, Ryan Enos, Aaron Sojourner, Paul Gronke, Catherine D’Ignazio

Nancy Kanwisher @nancykanwisher.bsky.social · 3d

I am proud of MIT, where our branch of AAUP has voted unanimously to endorse this statement urging MIT leadership and the MIT Corporation to reject the Compact wholesale
docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Letter Regarding Compact

MIT Chapter of the American Association of University Professors October 6, 2025 Statement on the “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” MIT has been invited by the federal governmen...

docs.google.com

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3d

My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:

Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 27d

4/ I may be missing something, but confirmed my sense with @electionstudies.bsky.social .

Nothing statistically incorrect in the book -- that's important to note. I was just surprised to see that fairly elaborate weight adjustment suggested right up front. for use of the ANES.

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 27d

3/ .. in the book and post

"If we want to make inferences about the entire U.S. population, we need to adjust the weights."

I don't think that's correct. You can make inferences about the population percentage who voted, for instance, just not the population NUMBER.

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 27d

2/ Using the weights provided with the ANES without the extra process the post describes does allow inference to the sample population -- as long as by this we mean statistical quantities and not population or subgroup N's.

I was surprised to see the CPS process at the start, and a statement ...2/

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 27d

@ivelasq3.bsky.social The new book on survey weighting in R is amazing but you may want to reconsider the first section on weighting the ANES (summarized at this post www.r-bloggers.com/2025/08/anes...)

I don't think many end users produce "population size" estimates, as the book describes. 1/

ANES 2024 is Out! How to Analyze the Data with R | R-bloggers

Last fall, my co-authors Stephanie Zimmer, Rebecca Powell, and I released Exploring Complex Survey Data Analysis Using R. Earlier this August, we had the joy of teaching a workshop based on the book a...

www.r-bloggers.com

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Aug 26

Not as in depth as you of course, but I have found that the hallucination rate has gone WAY down in the past 12-18 months. I almost never get fake packages / commands any more.

Reposted by Paul Gronke

Governor Gavin Newsom @governor.ca.gov · Aug 26

A glimpse into Trump's make-believe world of "giant water valves" in Northern California…

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Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Jennifer A. Richeson , and 4 more Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Jennifer A. Richeson, Tom Clark, Steve Peers, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Paul Gronke

Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · Jul 30

JD Vance is suddenly opposed to gerrymandering. Someone tell Greg Abbott.

@JDVance on X: The gerrymander in California is outrageous. Of their 52 congressional districts, 9 of them are Republican. That means 17 percent of their delegation is Republican when Republicans regularly win 40 percent of the vote in that state.

How can this possibly be allowed?

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Reposted by Paul Gronke

Evan Bernick, a finite mode with a smol hooman and a lorg floof @evanbernick.bsky.social · Jul 23

BREAKING: The Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to excavate from Antarctic ice an extraterrestrial life-form, colloquially known as “The Thing,” that assimilates, then imitates, other organisms en route to planetary conquest. The liberals dissent.

Katie Buehler @bykatiebuehler.bsky.social · Jul 23

BREAKING: The Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to remove three members of the Consumer Product Safety Commission despite an ongoing legal battle over his authority to fire them without cause. The liberals dissent.
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...

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Reposted by Anna G. Busse, Joanna Bryson, David Lazer , and 8 more Anna G. Busse, Joanna Bryson, David Lazer, Linda J. Skitka, Ben Bond‐Lamberty, İhsan Yılmaz, Bryan D. Jones, Erol Akçay, Paul Gronke, Anna Grzymała-Busse, Matthew P. McAllister

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Jul 9

The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House.

When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.

For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.

Infographic titled “One Court, Two Standards” compares how the Supreme Court used emergency powers to rule on lower-court injunctions against the Biden and Trump administrations. Two panels show:
• Biden Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 21 cases. All 21 cases are represented by red squares, indicating that 0% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS.
• Trump Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 86 cases. 66 green squares and 20 red squares show that 77% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS.

Key takeaway box below reads:
“Using its ‘shadow docket,’ the Supreme Court granted emergency relief to lift 77% of lower-court injunctions against the Trump administration. It lifted 0% of those against the Biden administration.”

Sources and notes below include: CourtListener data through July 7, 2025; analysis by Adam Bonica.

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Reposted by Simon Hix, Fabrizio Gilardi, Sara Wallace Goodman , and 1 more Simon Hix, Fabrizio Gilardi, Sara Wallace Goodman, Paul Gronke

EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · Jun 29

📣 Mark your calendars: The first-ever EPSS Conference will be held in Belfast, 18–20 June 2026

Organized under our new not-for-profit model.

➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/

More details soon, so watch this space.

See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️

Belfast 2026 – EPSS

epssnet.org

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Reposted by Paul Gronke

electionline @electionline.bsky.social · Jun 26

In the newser this week, a look at the declining job satisfaction among local election administrators, esp in small jurisdictions. That, plus so much more election news and info (and an Emmy winner!): electionline.org/electionline...

electionline Weekly - electionline

electionline.org

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 26

Looks like mine is much older - mid 1970s. "Super Deluxe" brand. Yours is a relative youth!

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 25

This decision to reverse an earlier decision that threw out a grants package is ultimately a good news story.

Learning when to lead and when to defer isn't easy. Glad to see the 7 members were willing to admit their error.

Now let's see if the lesson sticks.

www.wweek.com/news/city/20...

Amid Outcry, City Council Restores Portland Children’s Levy Grants Package

Close to ten BIPOC executive directors of nonprofit organizations testified to the council, railing them for rejecting the funding recommendations.

www.wweek.com

Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 25

That's so funny. I looked up the manufacturer. They dominated the desk fan market for something like 30 years.

For my office, it's really important because it's in a renovated house with 1920s duct work. The AC doesn't get pushed at all, but the fan makes it work.

And it looks really cool!

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Reposted by Paul Gronke

FairVote @fairvote.bsky.social · Jun 25

NYC just used #RankedChoiceVoting in its city primaries.

FairVote CEO Meredith Sumpter explains how RCV delivered more choice, more competition, and better campaigns for NYC voters. 👀

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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 24

I read Wikipedia now I have heard of both of them! 🤫

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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 24

He was acting Mayor!

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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 24

POTUS and administration claims about the results of the bombing were nearly a complete fabrication / fantasy/ wishful thinking?

I’m shocked!

Reposted by Paul Gronke

Derek Willis @dwillis.bsky.social · Jun 24

Every time I hear about the dangers of electing inexperienced people to be a NYC mayor, I think about how Vincent Impellitteri, an absolute nobody, became acting mayor, lost the primary and then won running as the “Experience Party” candidate:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent...

Vincent R. Impellitteri - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

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Dan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · Jun 24

NEW: NSF will be kicked out of their building. Announcement will be made tomorrow by HUD Sec. and Governor of VA. HUD will take over the NSF building over the next two years.

NSF staffer: "There is no planning for NSF, no identified future location, appropriation for a new building or a move."

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Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 9

Sad to be missing #esra2025 due to a series of flight delays that would get me there a day late.

But there in spirit with the topsiders and pastel shirt I put aside to go to the reception, and the bagels I made for the early morning flight.

#electionscience #aesra #esra2025