Paul Gronke
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pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke
@pgronke.bsky.social
950 followers 110 following 98 posts

Professor, director, gardener, and a few other things. I mainly do elections.

Follow my work at HTTP://EVIC.reed.edu
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-gronke-83452311/

Videos
Political science 46%
Economics 14%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Paul Gronke

gettingviggy.bsky.social
Neil Vigdor @gettingviggy.bsky.social · 4d
Austin Peay State University in Tennessee also reinstated Darren Michael, a tenured acting professor whose post about Charlie Kirk’s killing inflamed conservatives. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/u...
University to Pay $500,000 to Professor It Fired Over Charlie Kirk Post
www.nytimes.com

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 7d
This football game is nuts

Reposted by Mor Naaman, Paul Gronke, David S. Tanenhaus

parkermolloy.com
Parker Molloy @parkermolloy.com · 8d
This all seems pretty unbecoming of a FIFA Peace Prize winner

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 25d
I don’t know how he can claim we are the hottest country since he’s closing the NCAR.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 25d
You misread the 36.0% approval rating, it’s really 360!

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · 25d
I want someone to cut prices 500%

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Nov 5
I loved the analysis of the impact of free buses -- what they really need to do is make bus lanes!

I'm encouraged that he seemed to understand he has to get along with Albany. A bit disappointed in some of the tone of the speech, but heck, he was excited. Give him that.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Nov 5
Understand the need to fill space, a reminder that Harris won 68% of the vote in NYC. There were also three deeply flawed contenders.

Not underplaying the amazing Mamdani campaign and his talents, but IMO this is a lot more about campaigning (and shitty opponents) than ideology.

Time will tell.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Nov 5
I dig the excitement he is generating and that he's saying different things. But NYC is incredibly difficult to govern and I hope he ends up figuring out how to navigate that and doesn't end up being constantly frustrated.

We shall see. I don't interpret a lot from a result in NYC.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Nov 5
You look only to the parents but not to the differences in their ages which seems to me quite important in this case.

Also: Columbia vs Chicago.

Not sure what to do with San Francisco but who is?

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Brendan Nyhan, Tom Shakespeare , and 7 more

spockresists.bsky.social
Mr. Spock 🖖 @spockresists.bsky.social · Oct 27
Here is Gregory Bovino, the man in charge of ICE agents in Chicago.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Oct 9
This to me is the central challenge. With 40 years of statistical programming under my belt — all the way back to APL and Fortran — I can fashion highly focused queries and evaluate the results.

Not sure what I’d do if I were teaching stats.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Oct 9
This has not been my experience, not by a long shot.

I find the LLMs produce workable code for most of my low level needs, dramatically reduce my search time for more complex tasks, and have helped complete tasks that otherwise would be beyond my capabilities.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Oct 7
Why would you want to give free college tuition to a rich family? That’s a silly proposal.

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Tom Clark, Rosemary A. Joyce , and 6 more

robertmackey.bsky.social
Robert Mackey @robertmackey.bsky.social · Oct 7
The Oregon Republican Party tried to help Donald Trump make the case for military intervention in Portland with an image of a fiery protest — but since Portland is calm, they had to fabricate one by merging old photos of police in Ecuador and protesters in Brazil www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Republicans post fake image of Oregon protest – using photos of South America
A federal judge had blocked Trump’s request to deploy California national guard to Portland
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Dorothy Bishop, Joshua S. Weitz, Scott L. Greer , and 6 more

Nancy Kanwisher @nancykanwisher.bsky.social · Oct 7
I am proud of MIT, where our branch of AAUP has voted unanimously to endorse this statement urging MIT leadership and the MIT Corporation to reject the Compact wholesale
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Letter Regarding Compact
MIT Chapter of the American Association of University Professors October 6, 2025 Statement on the “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” MIT has been invited by the federal governmen...
docs.google.com

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, David Lazer, Joshua S. Weitz , and 16 more

brendannyhan.bsky.social
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · Oct 6
My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:

Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Sep 12
4/ I may be missing something, but confirmed my sense with @electionstudies.bsky.social .

Nothing statistically incorrect in the book -- that's important to note. I was just surprised to see that fairly elaborate weight adjustment suggested right up front. for use of the ANES.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Sep 12
3/ .. in the book and post

"If we want to make inferences about the entire U.S. population, we need to adjust the weights."

I don't think that's correct. You can make inferences about the population percentage who voted, for instance, just not the population NUMBER.

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Sep 12
2/ Using the weights provided with the ANES without the extra process the post describes does allow inference to the sample population -- as long as by this we mean statistical quantities and not population or subgroup N's.

I was surprised to see the CPS process at the start, and a statement ...2/

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Sep 12
@ivelasq3.bsky.social The new book on survey weighting in R is amazing but you may want to reconsider the first section on weighting the ANES (summarized at this post www.r-bloggers.com/2025/08/anes...)

I don't think many end users produce "population size" estimates, as the book describes. 1/
ANES 2024 is Out! How to Analyze the Data with R | R-bloggers
Last fall, my co-authors Stephanie Zimmer, Rebecca Powell, and I released Exploring Complex Survey Data Analysis Using R. Earlier this August, we had the joy of teaching a workshop based on the book a...
www.r-bloggers.com

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Aug 26
Not as in depth as you of course, but I have found that the hallucination rate has gone WAY down in the past 12-18 months. I almost never get fake packages / commands any more.

Reposted by Paul Gronke

governor.ca.gov
Governor Gavin Newsom @governor.ca.gov · Aug 26
A glimpse into Trump's make-believe world of "giant water valves" in Northern California…
A fictional giant faucet.

Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Jennifer A. Richeson , and 4 more

brandonfriedman.bsky.social
Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · Jul 30
JD Vance is suddenly opposed to gerrymandering. Someone tell Greg Abbott.
@JDVance on X: The gerrymander in California is outrageous. Of their 52 congressional districts, 9 of them are Republican. That means 17 percent of their delegation is Republican when Republicans regularly win 40 percent of the vote in that state. How can this possibly be allowed?

Reposted by Paul Gronke

evanbernick.bsky.social
Evan Bernick, a finite mode with a smol hooman and a lorg floof @evanbernick.bsky.social · Jul 23
BREAKING: The Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to excavate from Antarctic ice an extraterrestrial life-form, colloquially known as “The Thing,” that assimilates, then imitates, other organisms en route to planetary conquest. The liberals dissent.
bykatiebuehler.bsky.social Katie Buehler @bykatiebuehler.bsky.social · Jul 23
BREAKING: The Supreme Court allows President Donald Trump to remove three members of the Consumer Product Safety Commission despite an ongoing legal battle over his authority to fire them without cause. The liberals dissent.
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...

Reposted by Anna G. Busse, Joanna Bryson, David Lazer , and 8 more

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Jul 9
The Supreme Court’s “shadow docket” has cast very different shadows depending on which party holds the White House.

When lower courts blocked Trump admin policies, SCOTUS intervened on an emergency basis to lift those orders in 77% of cases.

For the Biden administration, that number was 0%.
Infographic titled “One Court, Two Standards” compares how the Supreme Court used emergency powers to rule on lower-court injunctions against the Biden and Trump administrations. Two panels show: • Biden Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 21 cases. All 21 cases are represented by red squares, indicating that 0% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS. • Trump Administration: Lower courts blocked policies in 86 cases. 66 green squares and 20 red squares show that 77% of injunctions/TROs were lifted by SCOTUS. Key takeaway box below reads: “Using its ‘shadow docket,’ the Supreme Court granted emergency relief to lift 77% of lower-court injunctions against the Trump administration. It lifted 0% of those against the Biden administration.” Sources and notes below include: CourtListener data through July 7, 2025; analysis by Adam Bonica.

Reposted by Simon Hix, Fabrizio Gilardi, Sara Wallace Goodman , and 1 more

epssnet.bsky.social
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · Jun 29
📣 Mark your calendars: The first-ever EPSS Conference will be held in Belfast, 18–20 June 2026

Organized under our new not-for-profit model.

➡️ epssnet.org/belfast-2026/

More details soon, so watch this space.

See you all in Belfast! 🇬🇧☘️
Belfast 2026 – EPSS
© 2025 – European Political Science CIC
epssnet.org

Reposted by Paul Gronke

electionline.bsky.social
electionline @electionline.bsky.social · Jun 26
In the newser this week, a look at the declining job satisfaction among local election administrators, esp in small jurisdictions. That, plus so much more election news and info (and an Emmy winner!): electionline.org/electionline...
electionline Weekly - electionline
electionline.org

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 26
Looks like mine is much older - mid 1970s. "Super Deluxe" brand. Yours is a relative youth!

pgronke.bsky.social
Paul Gronke @pgronke.bsky.social · Jun 25
This decision to reverse an earlier decision that threw out a grants package is ultimately a good news story.

Learning when to lead and when to defer isn't easy. Glad to see the 7 members were willing to admit their error.

Now let's see if the lesson sticks.

www.wweek.com/news/city/20...
Amid Outcry, City Council Restores Portland Children’s Levy Grants Package
Close to ten BIPOC executive directors of nonprofit organizations testified to the council, railing them for rejecting the funding recommendations.
www.wweek.com