Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
Now: Principal Economist @rooseveltinstitute.org & Roosevelt Forward. Then: @equitablegrowth |@JECDems | @amprog | @RFF | @UCSDecon | @BrookingsEcon.
This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
https://rooseveltinstitute.org/authors/michael-madowitz/
This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
https://rooseveltinstitute.org/authors/michael-madowitz/
Pinned
Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
· Sep 12
Refreshed this
Ping if I missed you!
Ping if I missed you!
Billy Valentine wept.
Despite the Florida ice box, Orange Juice futures have done absolutely nothing this year @teconomics $NG_F $UNG #natgas
February 1, 2026 at 5:37 PM
Billy Valentine wept.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Trump's aggressive and arbitrary immigration enforcement could devastate the care sector. Immigrants are nearly 30% of direct care jobs, and 40% of home health aides
February 1, 2026 at 2:45 PM
Trump's aggressive and arbitrary immigration enforcement could devastate the care sector. Immigrants are nearly 30% of direct care jobs, and 40% of home health aides
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
I am happy about this pick but reminder that @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social should never have been fired in the first place
"Trump Picks Veteran Staffer to Head Bureau of Labor Statistics: Brett Matsumoto, the next chief, has worked as an economist at the BLS since 2015."
Excellent choice! www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
Excellent choice! www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
Exclusive | Trump Picks Veteran Staffer to Head Bureau of Labor Statistics
Brett Matsumoto, the next chief, has worked as an economist at the BLS since 2015.
www.wsj.com
January 31, 2026 at 10:01 PM
I am happy about this pick but reminder that @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social should never have been fired in the first place
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
The argument that tariffs only increase prices (once) and not inflation strikes me as extremely dumb given the experience of the oil shocks of the 1970s
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/o...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/o...
Opinion | ‘I Have Been Dismayed About Warsh’s Tone’: Three Economists Debate Trump’s Pick for the Fed
www.nytimes.com
January 31, 2026 at 10:04 PM
The argument that tariffs only increase prices (once) and not inflation strikes me as extremely dumb given the experience of the oil shocks of the 1970s
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/o...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/o...
Celebrate good things
From the ever insightful @bencasselman.bsky.social with analysis by former BLS Commissioner & Friends of BLS co-chair Bill Beach and others
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/b...
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/b...
Trump Names ‘Data Nerd’ to Lead Labor Statistics Agency
www.nytimes.com
January 31, 2026 at 10:07 PM
Celebrate good things
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
#ICYMI: Our top stories of the week
✅ A FAST way to tax the ultrarich
✅ Why Trump’s housing plan misses the mark
✅ Defending free speech on campus
More in the #RooseveltRundown ⬇️
https://bit.ly/4c93Fai
✅ A FAST way to tax the ultrarich
✅ Why Trump’s housing plan misses the mark
✅ Defending free speech on campus
More in the #RooseveltRundown ⬇️
https://bit.ly/4c93Fai
A FAST Way to Tax the Ultrarich
Roosevelt Rundown: How to Actually Tax the Ultrarich, What We’re Talking About, and What We’re Reading
rooseveltinstitute.org
January 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM
#ICYMI: Our top stories of the week
✅ A FAST way to tax the ultrarich
✅ Why Trump’s housing plan misses the mark
✅ Defending free speech on campus
More in the #RooseveltRundown ⬇️
https://bit.ly/4c93Fai
✅ A FAST way to tax the ultrarich
✅ Why Trump’s housing plan misses the mark
✅ Defending free speech on campus
More in the #RooseveltRundown ⬇️
https://bit.ly/4c93Fai
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
I’m always ride or die with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, but I thought his Odd Lots episode on Warsh yesterday was particularly good.
January 31, 2026 at 12:22 PM
I’m always ride or die with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, but I thought his Odd Lots episode on Warsh yesterday was particularly good.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
I've interacted with Brett over the past few years. He's been professional, knowledgeable, and strikes me as a dedicated civil servant.
"Trump Picks Veteran Staffer to Head Bureau of Labor Statistics: Brett Matsumoto, the next chief, has worked as an economist at the BLS since 2015."
Excellent choice! www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
Excellent choice! www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
Exclusive | Trump Picks Veteran Staffer to Head Bureau of Labor Statistics
Brett Matsumoto, the next chief, has worked as an economist at the BLS since 2015.
www.wsj.com
January 30, 2026 at 9:48 PM
I've interacted with Brett over the past few years. He's been professional, knowledgeable, and strikes me as a dedicated civil servant.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Important 🧵 from our Principal Economist on today's Federal Reserve Chair announcement:
Let's be clear: The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed threatens harm to American workers and families.
The subdued market reaction isn’t an endorsement—w/o a majority of FOMC votes, he'd be unlikely to shift policy significantly. bit.ly/49PZleT
My take 👇
The subdued market reaction isn’t an endorsement—w/o a majority of FOMC votes, he'd be unlikely to shift policy significantly. bit.ly/49PZleT
My take 👇
Trump taps Kevin Warsh to chair Federal Reserve
The choice ends a monthslong search for a successor to Jerome Powell, who has resisted fierce White House pressure to lower interest rates.
bit.ly
January 30, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Important 🧵 from our Principal Economist on today's Federal Reserve Chair announcement:
Let's be clear: The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed threatens harm to American workers and families.
The subdued market reaction isn’t an endorsement—w/o a majority of FOMC votes, he'd be unlikely to shift policy significantly. bit.ly/49PZleT
My take 👇
The subdued market reaction isn’t an endorsement—w/o a majority of FOMC votes, he'd be unlikely to shift policy significantly. bit.ly/49PZleT
My take 👇
Trump taps Kevin Warsh to chair Federal Reserve
The choice ends a monthslong search for a successor to Jerome Powell, who has resisted fierce White House pressure to lower interest rates.
bit.ly
January 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Let's be clear: The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed threatens harm to American workers and families.
The subdued market reaction isn’t an endorsement—w/o a majority of FOMC votes, he'd be unlikely to shift policy significantly. bit.ly/49PZleT
My take 👇
The subdued market reaction isn’t an endorsement—w/o a majority of FOMC votes, he'd be unlikely to shift policy significantly. bit.ly/49PZleT
My take 👇
I have, once again, picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue
71% chance that Powell exits once his chairmanship is done @kalshi
Highest since Jan 10
kalshi.com/markets/k...
Highest since Jan 10
kalshi.com/markets/k...
January 30, 2026 at 1:11 PM
I have, once again, picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue
ICYMI, this is one of the coolest projects I’ve peeked behind the curtain on.
If you’re a tax nerd this mechanism is worth your time to understand
If you’re a tax nerd this mechanism is worth your time to understand
Readers, today is the exciting launch day for my book!
How to Tax the Ultrarich
bit.ly/4rk6wBM
In partnership with the great economic policy team @rooseveltinstitute.org
A few threads will follow. 1st, the key takeaway: even w/ *this* Supreme Court, we can tax wealth at the federal level.
1/12
How to Tax the Ultrarich
bit.ly/4rk6wBM
In partnership with the great economic policy team @rooseveltinstitute.org
A few threads will follow. 1st, the key takeaway: even w/ *this* Supreme Court, we can tax wealth at the federal level.
1/12
How to Tax the Ultrarich
Learn about the Fair Share Tax (FAST), a practical, constitutionally sound plan to tax the ultrarich, close loopholes, and prevent dynastic wealth accumulation.
bit.ly
January 30, 2026 at 12:27 PM
ICYMI, this is one of the coolest projects I’ve peeked behind the curtain on.
If you’re a tax nerd this mechanism is worth your time to understand
If you’re a tax nerd this mechanism is worth your time to understand
This is either a stupid, hawkish pick or the beginning of the end of Fed independence.
Good times!
Good times!
So it looks like Trump is going to nominate Warsh. Couple of thoughts:
1. Lol at the whole Rick Rieder stuff last week. Good plot twist at the end of this season of The Apprentice.
2. Feels like an odd pick to me. Warsh was almost always hawkish & wrong during 2006-11.
www.ft.com/content/e227...
1. Lol at the whole Rick Rieder stuff last week. Good plot twist at the end of this season of The Apprentice.
2. Feels like an odd pick to me. Warsh was almost always hawkish & wrong during 2006-11.
www.ft.com/content/e227...
Donald Trump preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair
US president says he will announce nominee to replace Jay Powell on Friday morning
www.ft.com
January 30, 2026 at 9:14 AM
This is either a stupid, hawkish pick or the beginning of the end of Fed independence.
Good times!
Good times!
was waiting for this to come back up.
absolutely devastating and not quite scary
absolutely devastating and not quite scary
It’s a phenomenal time for everyone to revisit this piece from Sam Bell on Kevin Warsh from the last time this was about to happen medium.com/@sam_a_bell/...
Jared Kushner for Fed Chair?
A powerful, no-holds-barred New York scion paves the way for his smooth operating, ill-equipped son-in-law to wield the kind of awesome…
medium.com
January 30, 2026 at 3:36 AM
was waiting for this to come back up.
absolutely devastating and not quite scary
absolutely devastating and not quite scary
I don’t speak bond vigilante fluently, but I know enough to get by and…
Interesting move higher in the 10 year yield as rumors of Kevin Warsh nomination to be Fed Chairman gather pace.
January 30, 2026 at 1:59 AM
I don’t speak bond vigilante fluently, but I know enough to get by and…
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
If it’s Warsh things are going to be rough. The man has trashed the central bank as it currently stands and he appears to flipped long held economic views in pursuit of the job, raising worries about his integrity.
Sure sounds like Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed Chair choice
His views mostly change based on which master he intends to serve, and general partisan convenience.
Thought rates were too low until...November 2024. What a shocker
Tired: Data-dependence
Wired: Presidential-dependence
His views mostly change based on which master he intends to serve, and general partisan convenience.
Thought rates were too low until...November 2024. What a shocker
Tired: Data-dependence
Wired: Presidential-dependence
January 30, 2026 at 1:53 AM
If it’s Warsh things are going to be rough. The man has trashed the central bank as it currently stands and he appears to flipped long held economic views in pursuit of the job, raising worries about his integrity.
At least Jay is gonna stay on the FRB now. Great pension!
January 30, 2026 at 1:56 AM
At least Jay is gonna stay on the FRB now. Great pension!
Plus ça change?
A new Fed head would expose Trump's empty promises on trade
After years of talking about improving the trade deficit, Trump’s short list of Federal Reserve Chair candidates suggests his administration is poised to make it larger.
www.foxbusiness.com
January 30, 2026 at 1:24 AM
Plus ça change?
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Super useful post from @aleximas.bsky.social suggesting his substack will be a must read.
New post: What is the impact of AI on productivity?
I review all of the studies and data that I can find and try to provide a synthesis.
A disagreement emerges: micro studies find positive benefits but these benefits are yet to show up in the macro data.
aleximas.substack.com/p/what-is-th... 🧵
I review all of the studies and data that I can find and try to provide a synthesis.
A disagreement emerges: micro studies find positive benefits but these benefits are yet to show up in the macro data.
aleximas.substack.com/p/what-is-th... 🧵
What is the impact of AI on productivity?
Reconciling the micro and the macro evidence
aleximas.substack.com
January 30, 2026 at 12:03 AM
Super useful post from @aleximas.bsky.social suggesting his substack will be a must read.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
These are challenging times for writing an economic policy look-ahead for 2026, but we did our best. Key issues to keep an eye on for the year ahead: AI, the labor market, and rising health care and energy costs.
🧵New SIEPR Policy Brief looks at the U.S. #economy's biggest risks and opportunities to shed light on what could go right or wrong in 2026, from SIEPR's Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social, @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Erika McEntarfer. Read in link 👇
January 29, 2026 at 10:43 PM
These are challenging times for writing an economic policy look-ahead for 2026, but we did our best. Key issues to keep an eye on for the year ahead: AI, the labor market, and rising health care and energy costs.
Jesus, this is grim in an economy that needs to add 6k home health aides a month just to deal with population aging
January 29, 2026 at 6:01 PM
Jesus, this is grim in an economy that needs to add 6k home health aides a month just to deal with population aging
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Guy Berger (@macromostly)
Is the labor market going to accelerate in 2026?
substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 5:33 PM