Drew Rappolt
@lidlwig.bsky.social
Peaked at 4th grade school spelling champion
Econ/Finance Bay Area Sports
Econ/Finance Bay Area Sports
Pinned
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Here's what worries the Fed (and me!): The unemployment rate is slowly drifting up. This is a clear sign of an unhealthy economy. And it's happening slowly enough that it hasn't attracted many headlines. But it really matters.
November 20, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Here's what worries the Fed (and me!): The unemployment rate is slowly drifting up. This is a clear sign of an unhealthy economy. And it's happening slowly enough that it hasn't attracted many headlines. But it really matters.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
November 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Someone other than just Miran pushing this line: "A couple of participants noted that recent changes in immigration policies would lessen housing demand and strengthen the disinflation in housing services prices."
November 19, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Someone other than just Miran pushing this line: "A couple of participants noted that recent changes in immigration policies would lessen housing demand and strengthen the disinflation in housing services prices."
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Where is the market headed in 2026?
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital breaks down his full outlook on the new episode of The Weekly Bull & Bear.
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCDtIT00DU
#macro #podcast #investing
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital breaks down his full outlook on the new episode of The Weekly Bull & Bear.
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCDtIT00DU
#macro #podcast #investing
Interview with David Cervantes - The Stock Market in 2026
In this episode of WealthVest:The Weekly Bull&Bear, Drew and Tim interviewed David Cervantes, Founder of Pine Brook Capital. They discussed David's success o...
www.youtube.com
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Where is the market headed in 2026?
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital breaks down his full outlook on the new episode of The Weekly Bull & Bear.
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCDtIT00DU
#macro #podcast #investing
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital breaks down his full outlook on the new episode of The Weekly Bull & Bear.
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCDtIT00DU
#macro #podcast #investing
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Job postings close to pre-pandemic level but data masks underlying weakness. Wage posting up 2.5%, weak & below current inflation. Tends to lead by about 6 mos. Pockets of shortages in areas dominated by immigrants. Not zero sum. Foreign- & native- born complement instead substitute for each other.
November 17, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Job postings close to pre-pandemic level but data masks underlying weakness. Wage posting up 2.5%, weak & below current inflation. Tends to lead by about 6 mos. Pockets of shortages in areas dominated by immigrants. Not zero sum. Foreign- & native- born complement instead substitute for each other.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The stock market this year has been roughly one part AI, one part macro.
We had a government shutdown where there was a 9 or 10 digit AI spending commitment announced basically every other day, and a dearth of data.
Now, macro is clearing its throat before its chance to speak.
We had a government shutdown where there was a 9 or 10 digit AI spending commitment announced basically every other day, and a dearth of data.
Now, macro is clearing its throat before its chance to speak.
November 17, 2025 at 8:49 PM
The stock market this year has been roughly one part AI, one part macro.
We had a government shutdown where there was a 9 or 10 digit AI spending commitment announced basically every other day, and a dearth of data.
Now, macro is clearing its throat before its chance to speak.
We had a government shutdown where there was a 9 or 10 digit AI spending commitment announced basically every other day, and a dearth of data.
Now, macro is clearing its throat before its chance to speak.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
FEDWATCH: Inflation expectations “for basic food and necessities, however, show signs of a repeat of the 1970s .. This has now become the chief reason for many Fed members shifting to the inflation side of the mandate ..”
November 16, 2025 at 3:25 PM
FEDWATCH: Inflation expectations “for basic food and necessities, however, show signs of a repeat of the 1970s .. This has now become the chief reason for many Fed members shifting to the inflation side of the mandate ..”
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
3. This one's a doozy.
The world already has about 71 GW of data center capacity.
That's more electricity than the entire UK uses every moment of every day, on average.
By the end of 2027 it's projected to increase *by half*
The world already has about 71 GW of data center capacity.
That's more electricity than the entire UK uses every moment of every day, on average.
By the end of 2027 it's projected to increase *by half*
November 16, 2025 at 2:48 PM
3. This one's a doozy.
The world already has about 71 GW of data center capacity.
That's more electricity than the entire UK uses every moment of every day, on average.
By the end of 2027 it's projected to increase *by half*
The world already has about 71 GW of data center capacity.
That's more electricity than the entire UK uses every moment of every day, on average.
By the end of 2027 it's projected to increase *by half*
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
RENMAC: “.. As of August, the unemployment rate for the native born is up over the last year a touch more than the unemployment rate for the foreign born. But, what do I know? I don't have a PhD. If Hassett is in the running for Fed Chair, good luck making these arguments to the Fed staff!”
November 14, 2025 at 8:33 PM
RENMAC: “.. As of August, the unemployment rate for the native born is up over the last year a touch more than the unemployment rate for the foreign born. But, what do I know? I don't have a PhD. If Hassett is in the running for Fed Chair, good luck making these arguments to the Fed staff!”
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The problem isn’t tariffs, per se. The problem is America’s retreat from a position of constructive post-war leadership in the world, under Trump. And that won’t be as easy to reverse as scrapping a few tariffs. Trust can only be rebuilt with effort.
The trade war behind Trump’s tariffs “might be coming to a strange end,” @annielowrey.bsky.social writes—but the consequences would be messy:
What Tariffs Did
Is this the end of the trade war?
bit.ly
November 14, 2025 at 2:06 PM
The problem isn’t tariffs, per se. The problem is America’s retreat from a position of constructive post-war leadership in the world, under Trump. And that won’t be as easy to reverse as scrapping a few tariffs. Trust can only be rebuilt with effort.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Do not agree with everything from Brainard in this piece but this section is on the money IMO
www.foreignaffairs.c...
www.foreignaffairs.c...
November 13, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Do not agree with everything from Brainard in this piece but this section is on the money IMO
www.foreignaffairs.c...
www.foreignaffairs.c...
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
November 13, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
So the AEA has a code of conduct that we all agree to in order to participate in the annual meetings. Something, something, sexual misconduct, something, something.
#EpsteinFiles
#EpsteinFiles
November 13, 2025 at 3:13 AM
So the AEA has a code of conduct that we all agree to in order to participate in the annual meetings. Something, something, sexual misconduct, something, something.
#EpsteinFiles
#EpsteinFiles
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Hi everyone, I wrote a short recap of what will happen with government labor market data after the shutdown. Hope this is useful!
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
November 12, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Hi everyone, I wrote a short recap of what will happen with government labor market data after the shutdown. Hope this is useful!
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
JPM: “.. the October employment and CPI reports will ‘likely never be released.’ The November data will thus be crucial .. increases the likelihood that the Fed will be making its [December] decision in ‘foggy conditions’, possibly opening the door for the Fed to hold off on easing ..”
November 12, 2025 at 11:01 PM
JPM: “.. the October employment and CPI reports will ‘likely never be released.’ The November data will thus be crucial .. increases the likelihood that the Fed will be making its [December] decision in ‘foggy conditions’, possibly opening the door for the Fed to hold off on easing ..”
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 12, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The brightest aurora I’ve seen in NorCal. Photograph made along Dry Creek Rd. in Healdsburg, with the iconic Timber Crest Farms barn. #kentporterphotography @pressdemo.bsky.social #substorm #Auroraborealis #northernlights #CME
November 12, 2025 at 6:41 AM
The brightest aurora I’ve seen in NorCal. Photograph made along Dry Creek Rd. in Healdsburg, with the iconic Timber Crest Farms barn. #kentporterphotography @pressdemo.bsky.social #substorm #Auroraborealis #northernlights #CME
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
She died on Thursday.
Her teammates played for the Big Ten title on Sunday.
My column on the life and legacy of Mia Hamant:
Her teammates played for the Big Ten title on Sunday.
My column on the life and legacy of Mia Hamant:
Canzano: Mia is always with them
A soccer team on a mission.
bit.ly
November 11, 2025 at 8:10 PM
She died on Thursday.
Her teammates played for the Big Ten title on Sunday.
My column on the life and legacy of Mia Hamant:
Her teammates played for the Big Ten title on Sunday.
My column on the life and legacy of Mia Hamant:
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Gold has resumed its rise. Its rally isn't about central banks exiting out the Dollar. It's about growing fear in markets that huge debt burdens will be inflated away. Gold is one symptom of the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
November 11, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Gold has resumed its rise. Its rally isn't about central banks exiting out the Dollar. It's about growing fear in markets that huge debt burdens will be inflated away. Gold is one symptom of the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
Just rudimentary math here but using current avg rates per Mortgage news daily and extending it out a bit for 50 yr term (mkt will want more duration spread from 30 v 50)
320k 15 yr (5.8%) = $2665.89
30 yr (6.3%) = 1980.71
50 yr (7%) = 1925.40
50 yr (7.22%) = 1979.46
Doesn't seem much a help to me
320k 15 yr (5.8%) = $2665.89
30 yr (6.3%) = 1980.71
50 yr (7%) = 1925.40
50 yr (7.22%) = 1979.46
Doesn't seem much a help to me
While a 50 year mortgage might lower monthly payments, it drastically increases total interest and slows equity growth. Stimulating demand without fixing supply would likely raise prices. The core issue in the housing market isn't financing; it's the lack of supply.
November 10, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Just rudimentary math here but using current avg rates per Mortgage news daily and extending it out a bit for 50 yr term (mkt will want more duration spread from 30 v 50)
320k 15 yr (5.8%) = $2665.89
30 yr (6.3%) = 1980.71
50 yr (7%) = 1925.40
50 yr (7.22%) = 1979.46
Doesn't seem much a help to me
320k 15 yr (5.8%) = $2665.89
30 yr (6.3%) = 1980.71
50 yr (7%) = 1925.40
50 yr (7.22%) = 1979.46
Doesn't seem much a help to me
I'm pretty sure I blew my Math Final in college as had tickets that afternoon to see it opening day and realized about 25% of the way thru if i actually tried i would be seriously late to the flick.....that was also when i realized i needed a semester off as was completely burned out
I saw Phantom Menace in theaters the weekend it came out and that was the first time I considered a movie could truly suck
November 10, 2025 at 7:08 PM
I'm pretty sure I blew my Math Final in college as had tickets that afternoon to see it opening day and realized about 25% of the way thru if i actually tried i would be seriously late to the flick.....that was also when i realized i needed a semester off as was completely burned out
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
‘The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends.’ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
BOJ Summary of Opinions Show Next Rate-Hike Nearing
The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wa...
www.wsj.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:25 PM
‘The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends.’ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Future SF Giant. They will go hard at him
Tatsuya Imai's posting will officially be approved by the Saitama Seibu Lions.
November 10, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Future SF Giant. They will go hard at him
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
