Drew Rappolt
@lidlwig.bsky.social
Peaked at 4th grade school spelling champion
Econ/Finance Bay Area Sports
Econ/Finance Bay Area Sports
Pinned
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Meet the first San Francisco pro women’s baseball team, which drafted Kelsie Whitmore first overall on Thursday | @sfchronicle.com
www.sfchronicle.com/sports/artic...
www.sfchronicle.com/sports/artic...
Kelsie Whitmore makes history as No. 1 pick by San Francisco in first WPBL draft
Kelsie Whitmore, who pitched for the Oakland Ballers last year, has become the first player drafted in the nascent Women’s Pro Baseball League.
www.sfchronicle.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:01 AM
Meet the first San Francisco pro women’s baseball team, which drafted Kelsie Whitmore first overall on Thursday | @sfchronicle.com
www.sfchronicle.com/sports/artic...
www.sfchronicle.com/sports/artic...
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Yes, it tells you we’re down 5% from a recent all-time high.
US stocks are feeling very iffy. We're only down 5% from the all-time high in October, but the narrative around the AI boom has definitely changed. I'm getting more and more questions if Fed rate cuts can bail out the market, which tells you something...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/can-the-fe...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/can-the-fe...
November 21, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Yes, it tells you we’re down 5% from a recent all-time high.
And I'm gonna win the lotto so good to know optimism abounds
November 20, 2025 at 9:21 PM
And I'm gonna win the lotto so good to know optimism abounds
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
everyone knows the biggest rallies happen in bear markets. but don’t forget that the largest drops also happen in bear markets
November 20, 2025 at 7:05 PM
everyone knows the biggest rallies happen in bear markets. but don’t forget that the largest drops also happen in bear markets
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
In AI, we just went from "take my money" to "prove it" and stock prices are adjusting. The End.
November 20, 2025 at 6:22 PM
In AI, we just went from "take my money" to "prove it" and stock prices are adjusting. The End.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Here's what worries the Fed (and me!): The unemployment rate is slowly drifting up. This is a clear sign of an unhealthy economy. And it's happening slowly enough that it hasn't attracted many headlines. But it really matters.
November 20, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Here's what worries the Fed (and me!): The unemployment rate is slowly drifting up. This is a clear sign of an unhealthy economy. And it's happening slowly enough that it hasn't attracted many headlines. But it really matters.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
November 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Someone other than just Miran pushing this line: "A couple of participants noted that recent changes in immigration policies would lessen housing demand and strengthen the disinflation in housing services prices."
November 19, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Someone other than just Miran pushing this line: "A couple of participants noted that recent changes in immigration policies would lessen housing demand and strengthen the disinflation in housing services prices."
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Where is the market headed in 2026?
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital breaks down his full outlook on the new episode of The Weekly Bull & Bear.
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCDtIT00DU
#macro #podcast #investing
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital breaks down his full outlook on the new episode of The Weekly Bull & Bear.
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCDtIT00DU
#macro #podcast #investing
Interview with David Cervantes - The Stock Market in 2026
In this episode of WealthVest:The Weekly Bull&Bear, Drew and Tim interviewed David Cervantes, Founder of Pine Brook Capital. They discussed David's success o...
www.youtube.com
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Where is the market headed in 2026?
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital breaks down his full outlook on the new episode of The Weekly Bull & Bear.
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCDtIT00DU
#macro #podcast #investing
David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital breaks down his full outlook on the new episode of The Weekly Bull & Bear.
👉 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyCDtIT00DU
#macro #podcast #investing
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Job postings close to pre-pandemic level but data masks underlying weakness. Wage posting up 2.5%, weak & below current inflation. Tends to lead by about 6 mos. Pockets of shortages in areas dominated by immigrants. Not zero sum. Foreign- & native- born complement instead substitute for each other.
November 17, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Job postings close to pre-pandemic level but data masks underlying weakness. Wage posting up 2.5%, weak & below current inflation. Tends to lead by about 6 mos. Pockets of shortages in areas dominated by immigrants. Not zero sum. Foreign- & native- born complement instead substitute for each other.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The stock market this year has been roughly one part AI, one part macro.
We had a government shutdown where there was a 9 or 10 digit AI spending commitment announced basically every other day, and a dearth of data.
Now, macro is clearing its throat before its chance to speak.
We had a government shutdown where there was a 9 or 10 digit AI spending commitment announced basically every other day, and a dearth of data.
Now, macro is clearing its throat before its chance to speak.
November 17, 2025 at 8:49 PM
The stock market this year has been roughly one part AI, one part macro.
We had a government shutdown where there was a 9 or 10 digit AI spending commitment announced basically every other day, and a dearth of data.
Now, macro is clearing its throat before its chance to speak.
We had a government shutdown where there was a 9 or 10 digit AI spending commitment announced basically every other day, and a dearth of data.
Now, macro is clearing its throat before its chance to speak.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
FEDWATCH: Inflation expectations “for basic food and necessities, however, show signs of a repeat of the 1970s .. This has now become the chief reason for many Fed members shifting to the inflation side of the mandate ..”
November 16, 2025 at 3:25 PM
FEDWATCH: Inflation expectations “for basic food and necessities, however, show signs of a repeat of the 1970s .. This has now become the chief reason for many Fed members shifting to the inflation side of the mandate ..”
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
3. This one's a doozy.
The world already has about 71 GW of data center capacity.
That's more electricity than the entire UK uses every moment of every day, on average.
By the end of 2027 it's projected to increase *by half*
The world already has about 71 GW of data center capacity.
That's more electricity than the entire UK uses every moment of every day, on average.
By the end of 2027 it's projected to increase *by half*
November 16, 2025 at 2:48 PM
3. This one's a doozy.
The world already has about 71 GW of data center capacity.
That's more electricity than the entire UK uses every moment of every day, on average.
By the end of 2027 it's projected to increase *by half*
The world already has about 71 GW of data center capacity.
That's more electricity than the entire UK uses every moment of every day, on average.
By the end of 2027 it's projected to increase *by half*
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
RENMAC: “.. As of August, the unemployment rate for the native born is up over the last year a touch more than the unemployment rate for the foreign born. But, what do I know? I don't have a PhD. If Hassett is in the running for Fed Chair, good luck making these arguments to the Fed staff!”
November 14, 2025 at 8:33 PM
RENMAC: “.. As of August, the unemployment rate for the native born is up over the last year a touch more than the unemployment rate for the foreign born. But, what do I know? I don't have a PhD. If Hassett is in the running for Fed Chair, good luck making these arguments to the Fed staff!”
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The problem isn’t tariffs, per se. The problem is America’s retreat from a position of constructive post-war leadership in the world, under Trump. And that won’t be as easy to reverse as scrapping a few tariffs. Trust can only be rebuilt with effort.
The trade war behind Trump’s tariffs “might be coming to a strange end,” @annielowrey.bsky.social writes—but the consequences would be messy:
What Tariffs Did
Is this the end of the trade war?
bit.ly
November 14, 2025 at 2:06 PM
The problem isn’t tariffs, per se. The problem is America’s retreat from a position of constructive post-war leadership in the world, under Trump. And that won’t be as easy to reverse as scrapping a few tariffs. Trust can only be rebuilt with effort.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Do not agree with everything from Brainard in this piece but this section is on the money IMO
www.foreignaffairs.c...
www.foreignaffairs.c...
November 13, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Do not agree with everything from Brainard in this piece but this section is on the money IMO
www.foreignaffairs.c...
www.foreignaffairs.c...
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
November 13, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
So the AEA has a code of conduct that we all agree to in order to participate in the annual meetings. Something, something, sexual misconduct, something, something.
#EpsteinFiles
#EpsteinFiles
November 13, 2025 at 3:13 AM
So the AEA has a code of conduct that we all agree to in order to participate in the annual meetings. Something, something, sexual misconduct, something, something.
#EpsteinFiles
#EpsteinFiles
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Hi everyone, I wrote a short recap of what will happen with government labor market data after the shutdown. Hope this is useful!
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
November 12, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Hi everyone, I wrote a short recap of what will happen with government labor market data after the shutdown. Hope this is useful!
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
JPM: “.. the October employment and CPI reports will ‘likely never be released.’ The November data will thus be crucial .. increases the likelihood that the Fed will be making its [December] decision in ‘foggy conditions’, possibly opening the door for the Fed to hold off on easing ..”
November 12, 2025 at 11:01 PM
JPM: “.. the October employment and CPI reports will ‘likely never be released.’ The November data will thus be crucial .. increases the likelihood that the Fed will be making its [December] decision in ‘foggy conditions’, possibly opening the door for the Fed to hold off on easing ..”
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 12, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
The brightest aurora I’ve seen in NorCal. Photograph made along Dry Creek Rd. in Healdsburg, with the iconic Timber Crest Farms barn. #kentporterphotography @pressdemo.bsky.social #substorm #Auroraborealis #northernlights #CME
November 12, 2025 at 6:41 AM
The brightest aurora I’ve seen in NorCal. Photograph made along Dry Creek Rd. in Healdsburg, with the iconic Timber Crest Farms barn. #kentporterphotography @pressdemo.bsky.social #substorm #Auroraborealis #northernlights #CME
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
She died on Thursday.
Her teammates played for the Big Ten title on Sunday.
My column on the life and legacy of Mia Hamant:
Her teammates played for the Big Ten title on Sunday.
My column on the life and legacy of Mia Hamant:
Canzano: Mia is always with them
A soccer team on a mission.
bit.ly
November 11, 2025 at 8:10 PM
She died on Thursday.
Her teammates played for the Big Ten title on Sunday.
My column on the life and legacy of Mia Hamant:
Her teammates played for the Big Ten title on Sunday.
My column on the life and legacy of Mia Hamant:
Reposted by Drew Rappolt
Gold has resumed its rise. Its rally isn't about central banks exiting out the Dollar. It's about growing fear in markets that huge debt burdens will be inflated away. Gold is one symptom of the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
November 11, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Gold has resumed its rise. Its rally isn't about central banks exiting out the Dollar. It's about growing fear in markets that huge debt burdens will be inflated away. Gold is one symptom of the "debasement trade..."
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...