Christina Pagel | Lightnews

Prof Christina Pagel

@chrischirp.bsky.social

65K followers 1.2K following 2.1K posts

Prof Operational Research , @UCL_CORU, passionate about health care, women in STEMs, defending liberal democracy (!). Member of @independentsage, posts personal. https://www.trumpactiontracker.info/

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Christina Pagel FMedSci HonFFPH is a German-British mathematician and professor of operational research at University College London (UCL) within UCL's Clinical Operational Research Unit (CORU), which applies operational research, data analysis and mathematical modelling to topics in healthcare. She was Director of UCL CORU from 2017 to 2022 and is currently Vice President of the UK Operational Research Society. She also co-leads, alongside Rebecca Shipley, UCL's CHIMERA research hub which analyses data from critically ill hospital patients. .. more

Public Health 39%

Medicine 29%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Michelle Kelly‐Irving, Christina Pagel

Heather Stewart @guardianheather.bsky.social · 1h

It seems a stretch to describe this as a “step” unless it’s off a diving board:

Graph of ONS data on net migration showing a very sharp decline over the past two years

Reposted by Christina Pagel

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1h

But that's not what's happened. The rise in emigration is from non-EU citizens not young British people. That *is* what anti-immigration voters supposedly wanted.

Reposted by Peter Holmes, Mary Corcoran, Christina Pagel

Michael Savage @michaelsavage.bsky.social · 2h

NEW: BBC tells staff they cannot quote Trump line removed from Reith Lecture

BBC News article & Media Show prevented from repeating Rutger Bregman’s corruption allegation in its coverage… of whether the BBC censored his speech!

BBC/Trump fallout continues

www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...

BBC tells staff they cannot quote Trump line removed from Reith Lecture

Journalists not allowed to repeat Rutger Bregman’s corruption claims against US president in coverage of edit

www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Will Jennings , and 6 more Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Andrew Scott, Leigh Sparks, Simon Wren‐Lewis, Jonathan Hopkin, Christina Pagel

Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 3h

Headline on The World at One just now:

"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".

Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?

Reposted by Andrew Leyshon, David Merrett, Christina Pagel

Sam Bright @writesbright.bsky.social · 3h

I'm constantly shocked (but not surprised) by how little we discuss the additional financial burden placed on young people by the Clegg-Cameron student loan regime.

@rmcunliffe.bsky.social is one of the few journalists who brings it up continuously - once again in the wake of the budget 👇

Rachel Reeves hits young graduates with a double stealth tax

The Chancellor plans to raise as much money from freezing loan repayment thresholds as from the mansion tax

www.newstatesman.com

Reposted by Nicholas A. Christakis, Christina Pagel

Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 3h

China’s fertility rate has fallen to one, continuing a long decline that began before and continued after the one-child policy—

The 1970s were a decade shaped by fears about overpopulation. As the world’s most populous country, China was never far from the debate.

China’s fertility rate has fallen to one, continuing a long decline that began before and continued after the one-child policy.

Line chart of China’s total fertility rate from 1950 to 2023, vertical axis labeled 0 to 7 births per woman. The chart shows a peak near 7 births per woman in the mid-1960s, followed by a sharp decline through the 1970s. The one-child policy is annotated as being rolled out in 1980 when the rate was already around 3 births per woman. After 1980 the rate continues downward, falling below 2 births per woman around the 1990s and staying at or below replacement level thereafter.

Data sources in the footer: Human Fertility Database; UN WPP (2024).

Reposted by Christina Pagel

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 4h

Net migration has fallen again to 204,000, the lowest level since 2021 and is forecast to continue falling over the coming years.

Not that you would know it from the endless coverage of Britain's supposed "immigration crisis"

Reposted by Christina Pagel

Bee Boileau @beeboileau.bsky.social · 4h

Underrated part of yesterday's Budget was what's happening to public service spending in 2028-29. Spending Review settlements reopened just 5 months after the SR to account for loosely-specified 'efficiency savings' of £1.4bn in 28-29 (rising to 4bn in 29-30)

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Will Jennings, Steve Peers , and 10 more Cas Mudde, Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Tim Bale, Samuel L. Perry, Catherine E. De Vries, Ernesto Priego, Jon Green, Simon Wren‐Lewis, Jacob T. Levy, Nikolay Marinov, Aurélien Mondon, Christina Pagel

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 5h

Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...

(from my presentation at the IMF last week)

Reposted by Christina Pagel

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 6h

One big risk to the OBR forecasts has already materialised -migration is falling more quickly than their projections and that will hit growth and tax revenue.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...

UK net migration drops sharply to 204,000 in year to June - live updates

Net migration fell by around two-thirds - from 649,000 in the year to June 2024 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Jonathan Hopkin, Christina Pagel

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 7h

New post out:

"Survival - for now"

The five big risks hidden in the budget. And why the government has missed an opportunity to take control of its own destiny.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

Survival - for now

Five big risks hidden in the budget

open.substack.com

Reposted by Steve Peers, Lesley A. Hall, Peter Holmes , and 1 more Steve Peers, Lesley A. Hall, Peter Holmes, Christina Pagel

Alan Lester @alanlester.bsky.social · 7h

1/5 It was entirely predictable that The Telegraph would jump on @DavidOlusoga’s Empire series to fight its right wing culture war for control of our public history. Let’s see what they’ve done:

Reposted by Mark D. White, Daniel W. Drezner, Robert C. Richards , and 6 more Mark D. White, Daniel W. Drezner, Robert C. Richards, Tom Griffin, Michael Jones‐Correa, Kate Starbird, Brooke Harrington, Simon Lester, Christina Pagel

Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 16h

It's not just that the United States has stopped trying to promote liberal democratic ideas internationally. It's that the United States is actively trying to promote the contrary. It's trying to turn more countries into Hungary.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...

U.S. to Press Europe and Other Allies on ‘Mass Migration,’ Document Says

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Daniel W. Drezner, Christina Pagel

Fat Donald @fatdonald.bsky.social · 16h

This is what happens when you put a privileged, 14 year heroin addict in charge of health. Duh

Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 21h

that is true of almost any tax you try though isn't it?

Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 21h

yeah, so London and the South East are expensive. The additional cost is likey much less than the originally planned 2p increase on income tax though and is likely considerably less than their monthly mortgage!
My issue with it is that it's a lot of effort for not much money.

Reposted by Mark A. Lemley, Lesley A. Hall, Adrian Vickers , and 2 more Mark A. Lemley, Lesley A. Hall, Adrian Vickers, Catherine J. Frieman, Karen O’Leary

Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 21h

this is amazing news - the HPV vaccine promises to eliminate cervical cancer in countries where uptake is high.

Dr M @ivalaine.bsky.social · 1d

Vaccinating boys and girls. It works bitches.

Reposted by Steve Peers, Michael H. Whitworth, Christina Pagel

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 21h

I'm hearing criticisms of the end to the two child limit, because it was done just to mollify Labour backbenchers, at a cost of £billions.

I remember another govt delivering a referendum on EU membership, just to mollify restive backbenchers. That's costing way, way more... A little perspective?

Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 21h

it *is* a 9 bed property... I think with only 100K houses in UK over £2m it's fair enough to call them "mansions" even if some of them may not look grand.

Reposted by Els Torreele, Christina Pagel, David Darmofal

Apoorva Mandavilli @apoorvanyt.bsky.social · 21h

SCOOP: The Trump administration has instructed employees and grantees not to use U.S. funds to commemorate World AIDS Day — because the observance was started by the World Health Organization.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/h...

Trump Administration Cancels U.S. Observance of World AIDS Day

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Christina Pagel

George Takei @georgetakei.bsky.social · 21h

MAHA my ass.

A tweet from Frank Luntz reporting that a baby in Kentucky died of whooping cough, the third such death from pertussis in a year. He says the Kentucky Department of Public Health confirmed none of the infants or their mothers were vaccinated. Below is a photo of an empty medical exam room with a paper-covered exam table and medical instruments on the wall.

Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 22h

👇

Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti.bsky.social · 1d

OBR says lower net migration will hurt overall productivity

OBR report text:

2.17 Our central forecast sees potential output growth slow from 1.8 per cent in 2025 to 1.3 per cent in 2026, before picking up to 1.5 per cent by 2030 (Chart 2.5). The slowdown next year partly reflects a further fall in levels of net migration, which affects labour supply and aggregate output but has a much smaller impact on output per person. Potential output growth picks up over the rest of the forecast thanks to a recovery in TFP growth, which rises from 0.3 per cent in 2026 to 0.8 per cent in 2030

Reposted by Christina Pagel

Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 22h

It's all so supine and pathologically risk averse. A government trying to survive day to day, too scared to take the kindness of big decisive action which would repair the country and win an election. An unbelievable wasted opportunity.

Reposted by Christina Pagel

Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 22h

Downside: There is no plan and no courage. No attempt to sort the tax system. No strategy for the economy, like the one @johnspringford.bsky.social suggests here getting-out-of-the-hole.uk. Even good policies, like mansion tax, simply fiddle for pennies instead of properly reforming property tax.

Getting Britain out of the hole

A plan for the UK economy

getting-out-of-the-hole.uk

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Christina Pagel

Ben Goldacre @bengoldacre.bsky.social · 22h

I'm delighted to say we have won the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Education with our work on OpenSAFELY, inventing new methods that let researchers analyse NHS GP data while protecting everyone's privacy, and with complete transparency, in a hugely productive platform!
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-11...

OpenSAFELY team awarded Queen Elizabeth Prize for Higher and Further

Oxford’s OpenSAFELY team wins the prestigious Queen Elizabeth Prize for revolutionising secure NHS data research, protecting patient privacy while unlocking life-saving health insights.

www.ox.ac.uk

Reposted by Christina Pagel

Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 22h

Plus sides to today: Two-child benefit scrapped. Largely progressive tax implications. Good market reaction. No big spending cuts. Nightmare prospect of cutting funding to net zero etc avoided. It's a left-wing budget. Those who say there's no difference between Labour and Tories are bananas.