Lavenham Teacher
@robknapp.bsky.social
Primary School Assistant Head Teacher, politics obsessive, Oxford United fan, wildlife enthusiast and lover of science fiction.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
A result which both illustrates the magnitude of the Reform threat and the problems with Labour’s “Farage is right, don’t vote for him” response. 37 point Lab to Reform swing. Labour go from first to 4th as anti-Reform vote splits 3 ways. Combined Lab/LD/Grn vote larger than Reform vote.
Red Hall & Lingfield (Darlington) Council By-Election Result:
➡️ RFM: 37.7% (New)
🌳 CON: 17.3% (-22.5)
🔶 LDM: 17.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 16.8% (-37.1)
🌍 GRN: 9.8% (+3.6)
🙋 Ind: 1.0% (New)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.
➡️ RFM: 37.7% (New)
🌳 CON: 17.3% (-22.5)
🔶 LDM: 17.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 16.8% (-37.1)
🌍 GRN: 9.8% (+3.6)
🙋 Ind: 1.0% (New)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2023.
December 12, 2025 at 12:31 PM
A result which both illustrates the magnitude of the Reform threat and the problems with Labour’s “Farage is right, don’t vote for him” response. 37 point Lab to Reform swing. Labour go from first to 4th as anti-Reform vote splits 3 ways. Combined Lab/LD/Grn vote larger than Reform vote.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
This should be the biggest story in the country right now. The sitting US President was extorting state lawmakers from his own party by threatening to withhold public money if they didn’t gerrymander for him.
I don’t know how else to say it…
I don’t know how else to say it…
December 12, 2025 at 4:21 AM
This should be the biggest story in the country right now. The sitting US President was extorting state lawmakers from his own party by threatening to withhold public money if they didn’t gerrymander for him.
I don’t know how else to say it…
I don’t know how else to say it…
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Good and important piece by @chrisgiles.ft.com. One implication: if you look at the revised figures for 2014-5, then frankly any talk that 2015 was a 'shock' win for David Cameron starts to look really silly and you just go 'oh yeah, figures': www.ft.com/content/5aff...
The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
A huge pessimistic bias in our national accounts leads us to doom and gloom which turns out to be nonsense
www.ft.com
December 12, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Good and important piece by @chrisgiles.ft.com. One implication: if you look at the revised figures for 2014-5, then frankly any talk that 2015 was a 'shock' win for David Cameron starts to look really silly and you just go 'oh yeah, figures': www.ft.com/content/5aff...
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
The big, big self-delusion at the heart of almost everything Labour is doing wrong is that through some old-time Labour economics you can avoid having an electoral coalition that looks a lot like 'Labour in 2024, Australian Labor in 2025, the Canadian Liberals in 2025' or indeed 'Harris in 2024'.
There’s more writing than wall at this point.
❗ Reform GAIN from Labour
Red Hall and Lingfield (Darlington) council by-election result:
REF: 38.4% (+38.4)
CON: 17.2% (-22.7)
LDEM: 17.2% (+17.2)
LAB: 16.6% (-37.2)
GRN: 9.7% (+3.5)
IND: 1.0% (+1.0)
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~28% (-3)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
Red Hall and Lingfield (Darlington) council by-election result:
REF: 38.4% (+38.4)
CON: 17.2% (-22.7)
LDEM: 17.2% (+17.2)
LAB: 16.6% (-37.2)
GRN: 9.7% (+3.5)
IND: 1.0% (+1.0)
+/- 2023
Estimated turnout: ~28% (-3)
andrewteale.me.uk/previews
December 12, 2025 at 12:35 PM
The big, big self-delusion at the heart of almost everything Labour is doing wrong is that through some old-time Labour economics you can avoid having an electoral coalition that looks a lot like 'Labour in 2024, Australian Labor in 2025, the Canadian Liberals in 2025' or indeed 'Harris in 2024'.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
December 10, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
“This is a reset of the transatlantic relationship like nothing else in living memory. No one alive has gone through this. America’s foreign policy, on paper at least, is more overtly hostile to Europe than China or Russia’s.”
inews.co.uk/opinion/us-p...
inews.co.uk/opinion/us-p...
The US is now a potent threat to Europe. No one alive has ever seen this
The radicals in the White House have made their agenda plain
inews.co.uk
December 11, 2025 at 12:23 PM
“This is a reset of the transatlantic relationship like nothing else in living memory. No one alive has gone through this. America’s foreign policy, on paper at least, is more overtly hostile to Europe than China or Russia’s.”
inews.co.uk/opinion/us-p...
inews.co.uk/opinion/us-p...
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Nigel Farage's electoral coalition now runs from James Orr to Bonnie Blue. Talk about cross-pressured.
anyway, leaving you with the news that Bonnie Blue has come out for Reform, unclear if before/after getting arrested in Bali (if you don't know who Bonnie Blue is i do not recommend googling) www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
How Bonnie Blue made her political bed with Nigel Farage
Plus: resignations from Boris Johnson’s cabinet; Starmer’s Christmas parties; a mistaken political identity; and when Rick Astley didn’t let down his audience
www.thetimes.com
December 11, 2025 at 12:33 AM
Nigel Farage's electoral coalition now runs from James Orr to Bonnie Blue. Talk about cross-pressured.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Imagine the right-wing reaction if Starmer or Biden had proposed something like this
Citizens of countries including the UK and France will have to disclose the past five years of their social media history to visit the US even though they are covered by visa waiver schemes, under new proposals by the Trump administration.
www.ft.com/content/683b...
www.ft.com/content/683b...
US to require social media disclosure for visa-waiver requests
Change would affect visitors from countries including the UK, France and Australia
www.ft.com
December 10, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Imagine the right-wing reaction if Starmer or Biden had proposed something like this
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
The most charitable way you can describe the US Liberal consensus on the Occupation is "I want Israel to want a two-state solution".
In many ways "I support a two-state solution" was just the de facto thought terminating cliche of the bipartisan consensus for the last thirty or so years. Its purpose was to stifle more substantive and direct conversation about the myriad ways in which USG policy impacts the conflict.
See for example a few months ago when the ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee said that he does not believe in recognizing the State of Palestine, but that he is still for two states. What exactly will the second state be?
December 10, 2025 at 9:47 PM
The most charitable way you can describe the US Liberal consensus on the Occupation is "I want Israel to want a two-state solution".
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Something every 2026/28 Dem should commit to is investigations of any company that did deals with Trump. A kind of forward guidance to get companies to think twice in advance of what’s coming.
Fox News will applaud this but can you imagine their coverage if President Biden hatched a secret plan to take over Fox News and revamp its programming to be nicer to him
New WSJ reporting: "During a December visit to Washington, David Ellison offered assurances to Trump administration officials that if he bought Warner, he'd make sweeping changes to CNN, a common target of President Trump's ire, people familiar with the matter said..."
December 9, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Something every 2026/28 Dem should commit to is investigations of any company that did deals with Trump. A kind of forward guidance to get companies to think twice in advance of what’s coming.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
When the whole truth comes out, we will need decades of truth, reconciliation, restitution and de-Nazification.
BREAKING: At one point, the Pentagon considered sending boat strike survivors to CECOT torture prison in El Salvador to avoid discovery in US courts. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
Inside the Pentagon’s Scramble to Deal With Boat Strike Survivors
www.nytimes.com
December 10, 2025 at 4:52 AM
When the whole truth comes out, we will need decades of truth, reconciliation, restitution and de-Nazification.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
I read this future of war / we’re not ready piece with interest and it’s strikingly shallow.
Surveillance and targeting have advanced, yes. That’s in my 2018 book. Much of the rest reads like tech company hype marketing.
AI will make bio weapons that target one person! Well, it sure can’t now.
Surveillance and targeting have advanced, yes. That’s in my 2018 book. Much of the rest reads like tech company hype marketing.
AI will make bio weapons that target one person! Well, it sure can’t now.
Opinion | This Is the 21st-Century Arms Race. Can America Keep Up?
Innovations in A.I., synthetic biology and quantum computing are set to change war.
www.nytimes.com
December 9, 2025 at 1:09 PM
I read this future of war / we’re not ready piece with interest and it’s strikingly shallow.
Surveillance and targeting have advanced, yes. That’s in my 2018 book. Much of the rest reads like tech company hype marketing.
AI will make bio weapons that target one person! Well, it sure can’t now.
Surveillance and targeting have advanced, yes. That’s in my 2018 book. Much of the rest reads like tech company hype marketing.
AI will make bio weapons that target one person! Well, it sure can’t now.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons is a fascinating approach to government
December 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons is a fascinating approach to government
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
But the good news is, by doing this, we defeated racism in the UK.
Government has now - belatedly -published the impact assessment for the changes to skilled worker and care worker visas announced in May.
Impact is estimated between -£2 billion and £-10 billion (central - £10 billion).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6937e6...
Impact is estimated between -£2 billion and £-10 billion (central - £10 billion).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6937e6...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
December 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
But the good news is, by doing this, we defeated racism in the UK.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Look, this is Europe. We barely reacted to a big European state doing not-particularly-covert assassinations on our own soil, and you want us to change our posting habits in response to a *tweet*? If you want urgency in the face of obvious challenges, go to the Middle East!
Pretty crazy that nearly all of the EU Commission is still on X even as Elon Musk is literally talking about destroying the EU.
You can leave X. It's really not that difficult.
You can leave X. It's really not that difficult.
So what's the outcome?
2️⃣5️⃣ of the 27 Commissioners have posted in the last week
2️⃣4️⃣ of the 27 generally post every week (Albuquerque has never been on X, Ribera is sporadic, McGrath has somehow stopped)
0️⃣ have stopped as a result of what Twitter has become since the Musk takeover
2️⃣5️⃣ of the 27 Commissioners have posted in the last week
2️⃣4️⃣ of the 27 generally post every week (Albuquerque has never been on X, Ribera is sporadic, McGrath has somehow stopped)
0️⃣ have stopped as a result of what Twitter has become since the Musk takeover
December 7, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Look, this is Europe. We barely reacted to a big European state doing not-particularly-covert assassinations on our own soil, and you want us to change our posting habits in response to a *tweet*? If you want urgency in the face of obvious challenges, go to the Middle East!
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
The number of global deaths of children under-5 is projected to increase this year (from 4.6m to 4.8m) for the first time this century. (FT)
The price of aid cuts.
The price of aid cuts.
December 8, 2025 at 9:29 AM
The number of global deaths of children under-5 is projected to increase this year (from 4.6m to 4.8m) for the first time this century. (FT)
The price of aid cuts.
The price of aid cuts.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Mind you, Nick Timothy hasn't been shy about his racism. "Not all cultures are equal"... British citizens aren't British if I say so...
December 8, 2025 at 9:41 AM
Mind you, Nick Timothy hasn't been shy about his racism. "Not all cultures are equal"... British citizens aren't British if I say so...
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
‘Kids can’t buy them anywhere’: how Pokémon cards became a stock market for millennials
‘Kids can’t buy them anywhere’: how Pokémon cards became a stock market for millennials
A surprising economic bubble is making it hard for anyone to buy Pokémon cards – especially children
www.theguardian.com
December 8, 2025 at 12:43 PM
‘Kids can’t buy them anywhere’: how Pokémon cards became a stock market for millennials
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Am quite sure there are US diplomats and politicians who reached out to European governments to say this document is lunacy and we're working to make sure what is described within doesn't happen. But even so, for the US to basically make undermining Europe the top foreign priority...
I really can't believe that the European Commission's response to Trump's NSS was:
"“We welcome the strong priority the Strategy places on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. Europe and the United States share a responsibility in supporting a just and lasting peace"
"“We welcome the strong priority the Strategy places on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. Europe and the United States share a responsibility in supporting a just and lasting peace"
December 8, 2025 at 7:40 AM
Am quite sure there are US diplomats and politicians who reached out to European governments to say this document is lunacy and we're working to make sure what is described within doesn't happen. But even so, for the US to basically make undermining Europe the top foreign priority...
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
I really don't think he's saying that, tho. More that there's a genuine risk of fascist authoritarianism under Reform of the sort we've never seen before under the Tories. Which I don't think is a surprising thing for him to think. Or, tbh, wrong.
December 7, 2025 at 9:05 PM
I really don't think he's saying that, tho. More that there's a genuine risk of fascist authoritarianism under Reform of the sort we've never seen before under the Tories. Which I don't think is a surprising thing for him to think. Or, tbh, wrong.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
It might stop the Greens hitting 30%, but the Greens aren't trying to hit 30%, and they don't need to hit 30% to cause Starmer problems
But there's another issue - it could make people who *do* care about this stuff likelier to try and stop *Labour* at GE29 for fear of govt dependent on the Greens
But there's another issue - it could make people who *do* care about this stuff likelier to try and stop *Labour* at GE29 for fear of govt dependent on the Greens
FWIW, the NATO line worked on Corbyn which is why I suspect that Starmer thinks that it will work on Polanski.
Ahh a low-salience issue and then a vote for Bart is a vote for anarchy. You can see the political geniuses behind the present disaster at work.
December 7, 2025 at 8:32 PM
It might stop the Greens hitting 30%, but the Greens aren't trying to hit 30%, and they don't need to hit 30% to cause Starmer problems
But there's another issue - it could make people who *do* care about this stuff likelier to try and stop *Labour* at GE29 for fear of govt dependent on the Greens
But there's another issue - it could make people who *do* care about this stuff likelier to try and stop *Labour* at GE29 for fear of govt dependent on the Greens
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
I can't imagine Zelenskyy needs much persuasion not to do something that would be militarily foolish for Ukraine and politically catastrophic for him. I also assume that neither he nor any serious European leader thinks that a US security guarantee would be worth anything while Trump is in power.
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Europe is persuading Zelensky not to agree to withdraw troops from Donbas, — Bloomberg
"Europe's main goal is to avoid a situation in which an exhausted Zelensky would be forced to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian Donbas and agree to a deal without serious American security guarantees."
"Europe's main goal is to avoid a situation in which an exhausted Zelensky would be forced to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian Donbas and agree to a deal without serious American security guarantees."
December 7, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I can't imagine Zelenskyy needs much persuasion not to do something that would be militarily foolish for Ukraine and politically catastrophic for him. I also assume that neither he nor any serious European leader thinks that a US security guarantee would be worth anything while Trump is in power.
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
Spot on, Mr. Rather. 🎯 💯
December 7, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Spot on, Mr. Rather. 🎯 💯
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
This genuinely is an important part of a newsletter! You do need to have some sense of “I am getting this from a person”. This is one reason why I ripped off the bottom of John Authers’ newsletter. (The others being that the world is depressing and I wanted there to be some joy in it)
In a minority of one but I'd rather have his albums of the year, thoughts on Edwyn Collins final tour and what televising both Arsenal teams at the same time says about the future of the women's game.
December 7, 2025 at 11:10 AM
This genuinely is an important part of a newsletter! You do need to have some sense of “I am getting this from a person”. This is one reason why I ripped off the bottom of John Authers’ newsletter. (The others being that the world is depressing and I wanted there to be some joy in it)
Reposted by Lavenham Teacher
The tech oligarchs are the most organised, determined anti democratic force we’ve seen this side of World War II
For way too long this has been ignored, elided and under estimated
What someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time
For way too long this has been ignored, elided and under estimated
What someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time
A Palantir billionaire just called for public hangings.
“It's time to bring back masculine leadership to protect our most vulnerable,” writes Joe Lonsdale.
This is where Silicon Valley authoritarianism is heading:
www.thenerdreich.com/joe-lonsdale...
“It's time to bring back masculine leadership to protect our most vulnerable,” writes Joe Lonsdale.
This is where Silicon Valley authoritarianism is heading:
www.thenerdreich.com/joe-lonsdale...
Joe Lonsdale Calls For Public Hangings
Silicon Valley radicalization escalates
www.thenerdreich.com
December 6, 2025 at 10:03 PM
The tech oligarchs are the most organised, determined anti democratic force we’ve seen this side of World War II
For way too long this has been ignored, elided and under estimated
What someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time
For way too long this has been ignored, elided and under estimated
What someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time