Fred Hicks
@deadlyfredly.bsky.social
President of Evil Hat (I publish Fate, Blades in the Dark, Monster of the Week, Thirsty Sword Lesbians, &c). Liberal in politics, reposting, & use of the block button. Be advised, I limit parasociality when I can. Permanently in AMA mode (so ask).
Pinned
Fred Hicks
@deadlyfredly.bsky.social
· Oct 25
And perhaps most importantly, there is no "right" level of appetite for risk. It's something you'll have to come to on your own and, should circumstances change, possibly revise.
The thing you *shouldn't* do is find someone successful and emulate their posture.
The thing you *shouldn't* do is find someone successful and emulate their posture.
The fact that I am here and able to share numbers and give looks under the hood is because we’ve survived.
Survivor bias is in effect. If you’re not also learning from companies that failed you’re ignoring a ton of relevant data.
Survivor bias is in effect. If you’re not also learning from companies that failed you’re ignoring a ton of relevant data.
The company list goes by orders of magnitude. The delta here is likely a fair bit gentler than a power-of-ten factor.
February 13, 2026 at 10:05 PM
The company list goes by orders of magnitude. The delta here is likely a fair bit gentler than a power-of-ten factor.
Reposted by Fred Hicks
This kind of thing is exactly what we want to do more of on our podcast Talk of the Table.
If you had your pick, who would you want to hear from? What aspects of their businesses would be most interesting and useful to explore?
If you had your pick, who would you want to hear from? What aspects of their businesses would be most interesting and useful to explore?
February 13, 2026 at 8:52 PM
This kind of thing is exactly what we want to do more of on our podcast Talk of the Table.
If you had your pick, who would you want to hear from? What aspects of their businesses would be most interesting and useful to explore?
If you had your pick, who would you want to hear from? What aspects of their businesses would be most interesting and useful to explore?
Probably but those tend to be a modest proportion.
February 13, 2026 at 10:02 PM
Probably but those tend to be a modest proportion.
Reposted by Fred Hicks
In terms of what cures are being lost:
- Epstein-Barr virus is perhaps the major trigger for multiple sclerosis
- herpes simplex virus causes cold sores, genital herpes, infections in babies, deadly meningitis
- shingles virus causes an intensely painful disease
- Epstein-Barr virus is perhaps the major trigger for multiple sclerosis
- herpes simplex virus causes cold sores, genital herpes, infections in babies, deadly meningitis
- shingles virus causes an intensely painful disease
February 13, 2026 at 5:44 AM
In terms of what cures are being lost:
- Epstein-Barr virus is perhaps the major trigger for multiple sclerosis
- herpes simplex virus causes cold sores, genital herpes, infections in babies, deadly meningitis
- shingles virus causes an intensely painful disease
- Epstein-Barr virus is perhaps the major trigger for multiple sclerosis
- herpes simplex virus causes cold sores, genital herpes, infections in babies, deadly meningitis
- shingles virus causes an intensely painful disease
So I'd say if you build up enough of your smaller tier games, they round out the revenue as a "line" of their own. For EHP even if you don't count our (mostly out of print) Fate line, there's AGON, Band of Blades, Improv for Gamers, Apocalypse Keys, Girl by Moonlight, Deathmatch Island, and Stewpot.
February 13, 2026 at 8:43 PM
So I'd say if you build up enough of your smaller tier games, they round out the revenue as a "line" of their own. For EHP even if you don't count our (mostly out of print) Fate line, there's AGON, Band of Blades, Improv for Gamers, Apocalypse Keys, Girl by Moonlight, Deathmatch Island, and Stewpot.
As far as those rest go, with very few exceptions they all did well enough to cover costs and then some, so it's more magnitude here than pass/fail — helped along in part by the rising tide of the overall catalog's successes.
February 13, 2026 at 8:43 PM
As far as those rest go, with very few exceptions they all did well enough to cover costs and then some, so it's more magnitude here than pass/fail — helped along in part by the rising tide of the overall catalog's successes.
To render it specific, a ton of our sales revenue comes from a small number of titles or lines — Blades in the Dark, Monster of the Week, Thirsty Sword Lesbians, Scum and Villainy are fairly consistently top four, and the monetary gap between the top tier and the rest can be pretty significant.
February 13, 2026 at 8:43 PM
To render it specific, a ton of our sales revenue comes from a small number of titles or lines — Blades in the Dark, Monster of the Week, Thirsty Sword Lesbians, Scum and Villainy are fairly consistently top four, and the monetary gap between the top tier and the rest can be pretty significant.
I think that's a pretty fair characterization of what my own experiences and observations suggest. Growth *and* stability come from a catalog more than from any one individual game. If it's from just one big hit, you might have growth, but stability is volatile & tied to that one game.
February 13, 2026 at 8:43 PM
I think that's a pretty fair characterization of what my own experiences and observations suggest. Growth *and* stability come from a catalog more than from any one individual game. If it's from just one big hit, you might have growth, but stability is volatile & tied to that one game.
Reposted by Fred Hicks
I don't know who keeps doing this but you have to stop I'm begging you
February 13, 2026 at 2:21 AM
I don't know who keeps doing this but you have to stop I'm begging you
Could be that, could be an exciting license, etc. Every pathway upwards is gonna be a bit per-situation bespoke.
February 13, 2026 at 12:30 AM
Could be that, could be an exciting license, etc. Every pathway upwards is gonna be a bit per-situation bespoke.
Yeah that would be great stuff
February 12, 2026 at 7:03 PM
Yeah that would be great stuff
off the top of my head, artwork, editing, proofreading, some graphic design and layout (tho we staff for that, plus project management, so those are often not factored in there and are instead a part of personnel), art direction, indexing, other ancillary activities & misc work for hire
February 12, 2026 at 7:03 PM
off the top of my head, artwork, editing, proofreading, some graphic design and layout (tho we staff for that, plus project management, so those are often not factored in there and are instead a part of personnel), art direction, indexing, other ancillary activities & misc work for hire
I tend to question assertions about things “we all already know”.
All is a very large population, an ignorance is abundantly supplied.
All is a very large population, an ignorance is abundantly supplied.
February 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM
I tend to question assertions about things “we all already know”.
All is a very large population, an ignorance is abundantly supplied.
All is a very large population, an ignorance is abundantly supplied.
Probably an aspect of some of the cost factors in that list, yes. Tho we do source our stuff domestically in nearly all cases at this point, so when tariffs etc fuck us, they’re doing it indirectly, by hitting the upstream supply chain.
February 12, 2026 at 6:57 PM
Probably an aspect of some of the cost factors in that list, yes. Tho we do source our stuff domestically in nearly all cases at this point, so when tariffs etc fuck us, they’re doing it indirectly, by hitting the upstream supply chain.
There’s also an element of willingness there; maybe Evil Hat could push higher if we extended ourselves into a bigger risk position, significantly expanded staff, etc. But we are comfortable at our current size and going up the ladder just feels like more work.
February 12, 2026 at 6:54 PM
There’s also an element of willingness there; maybe Evil Hat could push higher if we extended ourselves into a bigger risk position, significantly expanded staff, etc. But we are comfortable at our current size and going up the ladder just feels like more work.
Decades of work at steady growth plus a TON of luck that your lower tier offerings will get noticed and taken up by audiences (and influencers) from the next tier up, at least based on how we got from the indie pool to the bottom rung on the ladder out of the pool.
February 12, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Decades of work at steady growth plus a TON of luck that your lower tier offerings will get noticed and taken up by audiences (and influencers) from the next tier up, at least based on how we got from the indie pool to the bottom rung on the ladder out of the pool.
And as always, a) see the pinned post on my profile for important context, and b) remember that we've been around for about 20 years at this point and it took 20 of those 20 years to get *to* this point.
February 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
And as always, a) see the pinned post on my profile for important context, and b) remember that we've been around for about 20 years at this point and it took 20 of those 20 years to get *to* this point.
Context, this is for a company that has fewer than 100 physical titles in its catalog, one full-time employee (me), about 6 all-year part-timers; other hires are a bunch of as-needed contractors (e.g., editors, artists, et al), many of our top products done in partnership as a royalty split deal.
February 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Context, this is for a company that has fewer than 100 physical titles in its catalog, one full-time employee (me), about 6 all-year part-timers; other hires are a bunch of as-needed contractors (e.g., editors, artists, et al), many of our top products done in partnership as a royalty split deal.
How'd we spend $1.429M? ~ $111k on marketing (mostly for crowdfunds), $156k on product development, $112k on the operational cost of running the company, $257k on paying our staff, $306k on manufacturing products (mostly books), $339k in royalty payments as owed, $147k on shipping & warehousing.
February 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
How'd we spend $1.429M? ~ $111k on marketing (mostly for crowdfunds), $156k on product development, $112k on the operational cost of running the company, $257k on paying our staff, $306k on manufacturing products (mostly books), $339k in royalty payments as owed, $147k on shipping & warehousing.
Don't sweat Evil Hat taking that sort of loss. It's normal and healthy and obviously we're still around and functioning fine. I don't love it, sure, but it also means no real tax burden for the past year, and we operate with a buffer that can absorb that scale of loss if we don't make a habit of it.
February 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Don't sweat Evil Hat taking that sort of loss. It's normal and healthy and obviously we're still around and functioning fine. I don't love it, sure, but it also means no real tax burden for the past year, and we operate with a buffer that can absorb that scale of loss if we don't make a habit of it.
Just to look at 2025, last year our gross income was $1.266M — about $443k of which was from crowdfunding, $723k from general sales, and $20k from other sources (like royalties-we-were-owed).
That's gross income, though. Our expenses exceeded it, totaling around $1.429M, for a net loss of $162k.
That's gross income, though. Our expenses exceeded it, totaling around $1.429M, for a net loss of $162k.
February 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Just to look at 2025, last year our gross income was $1.266M — about $443k of which was from crowdfunding, $723k from general sales, and $20k from other sources (like royalties-we-were-owed).
That's gross income, though. Our expenses exceeded it, totaling around $1.429M, for a net loss of $162k.
That's gross income, though. Our expenses exceeded it, totaling around $1.429M, for a net loss of $162k.
In the article, some inferences made about our income were based on what is ultimately a partial, more sales-volume-oriented (as opposed to revenue-oriented) public view of our quarterly sales reporting. That got the numbers in the ballpark, but they do tend to swing about widely from year to year.
February 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
In the article, some inferences made about our income were based on what is ultimately a partial, more sales-volume-oriented (as opposed to revenue-oriented) public view of our quarterly sales reporting. That got the numbers in the ballpark, but they do tend to swing about widely from year to year.
This is a good perspective on the orders of magnitude in the TTRPG publishing industry, and by and large positions us correctly at the bottom-most named tier (while acknowledging that there's a broad swath of indie designers further down). cannibalhalflinggaming.com/2026/02/11/f...
Five Tiers of RPG Publishing
Hasbro’s annual earnings came out this week, so I took a look. It is truly staggering how much Wizards of the Coast has changed the company since they were acquired; when looking at unadjusted earn…
cannibalhalflinggaming.com
February 12, 2026 at 3:21 PM
This is a good perspective on the orders of magnitude in the TTRPG publishing industry, and by and large positions us correctly at the bottom-most named tier (while acknowledging that there's a broad swath of indie designers further down). cannibalhalflinggaming.com/2026/02/11/f...