Jonathan Portes
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jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes
@jdportes.bsky.social
63K followers 620 following 4.6K posts

Professor of Economics and Public Policy, King's College London; Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe. Immigration, economics, public policy. Personal views only; usual disclaimers apply.

Books: Immigration (Sage), Capitalism (Quercus)
.. more

Videos

Jonathan Daniel Portes is a professor of Economics and Public Policy at the School of Politics & Economics of King's College, London and a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe.

Source: Wikipedia
Political science 31%
Economics 28%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Holger Nehring

gabyhinsliff.bsky.social
Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social · 56m
More fuel for the ‘some top jobs are becomg impossible’ to do. Yes the leak was bad and dumb and embarrassing! But on the whole i think resign when you have demonstrably hurt someone/failed in a core duty. Nobody died of ‘having an URL people can guess’ www.theguardian.com/business/202...
OBR chair quits after inquiry into early release of Reeves’s budget
Richard Hughes departs after investigation into how official forecaster accidentally published budget 40 minutes early
www.theguardian.com

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1h
I pointed this out in May. When it comes to choosing between growth/public services and reducing (legal) migration, the government chooses the latter.

ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration_...

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

cjayanetti.bsky.social
Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti.bsky.social · 3h
Senior MPs including Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick and Darren Jones are claiming tens of thousands of pounds a year in taxpayer-funded rent expenses while either calling for or implementing benefit cuts on the poorest

By me, for the Big Issue www.bigissue.com/news/politic...
Revealed: MPs rack up huge rent expenses while pushing through cuts to benefits
MPs are allowed to rent a second home, but while they are simultaneously cutting benefits for the vulnerable, the cost feels hard to swallow.
www.bigissue.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Will Jennings , and 2 more

tpgroberts.bsky.social
Tom Roberts @tpgroberts.bsky.social · 6h
There is an actual interesting little deceit in the budget, namely ther have the OBR still forecasting based on increasing net immigration back to 300-350k whilst the Home Secretary is promising to bring it down from 200k, which does dissolve about half the headroom, but somehow we're doing vibes.
stephenkb.bsky.social Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 7h
Think this is exactly right - political journalism that is completely abstracted from policy, which was not the norm before 2017, has become the default. Impossible to have a serious attempt to either shrink what the state does or widen the tax base (have to do at least one) on that basis.
profjanegreen.bsky.social Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7h
All this budget news, claims, counter claims is confusing, but two things of consequence.

1. We're all talking about that, not any financial benefits (or losses) of the budget.

2. Yet more focus on the very weird few weeks and politics of it all. Starting to feel dangerously like a norm.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

sundersays.bsky.social
Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 6h
If the Chancellor had told the OBR what the Home Secretary says here is a firm commitment of the government, she would need > £7.5 billion of tax rises or spending cuts to afford to lift the two child limit. The fiscal forecast is based on not cutting immigration further & it drifting up to > 300k

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Simon Wren‐Lewis

sundersays.bsky.social
Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 9h
The Prime Minister and Home Secretary want to drive net migration lower than net 205k. The Chancellor could reduce borrowing £7.4 billion/year in 2029/30 using the OBR projection that it will return to net 340k later in the parliament
obr.uk/box/the-impa...
The impact of migration on the fiscal forecast - Office for Budget Responsibility
Following the upwards revision to our migration forecast, this box explored the implications of higher migration on our central forecasts for tax revenues, spending and borrowing. We also drew on alte...
obr.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

faribrad.bsky.social
Fari Bradley @faribrad.bsky.social · 22h
@ipso.co.uk
www.ipso.co.uk/making-a-com...
Making a complaint - IPSO
How to make a complaint to IPSO about an article in a newspapers, magazine or online, or the behaviour of a journalist.
www.ipso.co.uk

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 22h
This is the main issue here -they are absolutely *not* comparing "equivalent" families

bsky.app/profile/beel...
beelbeebub.bsky.social Beelbeebub @beelbeebub.bsky.social · 1d
Had a look at the "study" the article is based on.

They take a couple with children then assume the couple claim maximum disability benefits for themselves and the kids on top of UC and housing.

They then assume the working couple claim nothing at all....

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Stephen Evans , and 1 more

adamcorlett.bsky.social
Adam Corlett @adamcorlett.bsky.social · 23h
Don't Panic: Britain is not broken. The UK can do better, but we shouldn't be too gloomy about things. If you look at the stats, there's a lot to be happy with (including how happy we are): adamcorlett.com/2025/11/30/d...
Don’t Panic: Britain is not broken – adamcorlett.com
adamcorlett.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

beelbeebub.bsky.social
Beelbeebub @beelbeebub.bsky.social · 1d
Had a look at the "study" the article is based on.

They take a couple with children then assume the couple claim maximum disability benefits for themselves and the kids on top of UC and housing.

They then assume the working couple claim nothing at all....

Reposted by John Appleby, Steve Peers

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
Utter bullshit/lies from the "Centre for Social Justice" via the Express.

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
Wrote this pre-Budget but seems even more relevant now.

The obsession with OBR/forecasts (and even more so the current absurd media firestorm)is a pointless distraction from the UK's real economic and fiscal problems.

www.ft.com/content/a06d...
Blaming the OBR for the Budget maths is a waste of time
The government must explain why tax reform is necessary and desirable for fiscal sustainability
www.ft.com

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers, Stuart White

carolineslocock.bsky.social
Caroline Slocock @carolineslocock.bsky.social · 1d
Farage has vowed to cut funding to universities that undermine ‘free speech’. This is just the beginning of the Trump playbook and we know from Johnson’s time there are few constitutional guardrails to stop the abuse of power. Cosying up isn’t going to cut it.
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Cambridge University cosies up to Reform
The vice-chancellor expects Nigel Farage to model his policies on Trump and says other Russell Group members are meeting his allies
www.thetimes.com

Reposted by Catherine Baker

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 1d
Under Mahmood's current proposals, presumably would have been deported to Czechoslovakia in 1945, when it was "safe" again.
ianfraser.bsky.social Ian Fraser @ianfraser.bsky.social · 1d
R.I.P. Tom Stoppard, playwright most famous for Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead.

Born Tomas Straussler in Czechoslovakia he fled his home during the Nazi occupation and found refuge in Britain at the age of eight. He later discovered all four of his grandparents had died in the Holocaust.
Sir Tom Stoppard, playwright famed for his wit and depth, dies at 88
Winning an Oscar for the screenplay for Shakespeare In Love, he captivated the hearts of audiences for more than six decades.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Alistair Munro, Simon Wren‐Lewis , and 1 more

ianfraser.bsky.social
Ian Fraser @ianfraser.bsky.social · 1d
R.I.P. Tom Stoppard, playwright most famous for Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead.

Born Tomas Straussler in Czechoslovakia he fled his home during the Nazi occupation and found refuge in Britain at the age of eight. He later discovered all four of his grandparents had died in the Holocaust.
Sir Tom Stoppard, playwright famed for his wit and depth, dies at 88
Winning an Oscar for the screenplay for Shakespeare In Love, he captivated the hearts of audiences for more than six decades.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

yairwallach.bsky.social
Yair Wallach @yairwallach.bsky.social · 2d
Fadi and Jum'ah abu Assi, 8 and 11 years old
killed by the IDF today as they were collecting firewood near Khan Younis.
IDF spokesperson announced the airforce and ground forces "eliminated an immediate threat to IDF forces"
Fadi (8) and Jum'ah (11) Abu Assi, killed by IDF

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Mel Bartley , and 2 more

rolandmcs.bsky.social
Roland Smith @rolandmcs.bsky.social · 2d
'We have historically high welfare spending.' No we don't.

'We have a historically high proportion of working-age people not actually working.' No we don't.

'The number of Britons emigrating is skyrocketing.' No it isn't.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers

darshna.bsky.social
Darshna Soni @darshna.bsky.social · 2d
We now get Home Office press releases about immigration nearly every day. Interesting to note the language. They obviously want to be seen to be taking action, but “illegal migrants” are not the same as “asylum seekers”

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Scott L. Greer, Anand Menon , and 2 more

resolutionfoundation.org
Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 3d
Is welfare spending ''out of control''?

It's estimated to be 10.8 per cent of GDP this financial year.

That's just 0.8 per cent of GDP higher than in 2007-08, and total welfare spending has actually fallen fallen by 1.2 per cent of GDP since 2012-13⤵️ buff.ly/s5mz97u
The chart shows where spending on social security is shown as a share of GDP. As this makes plain, total welfare spending in Britain in 2025-26 is estimated to be 10.8 per cent of GDP. This is 0.8 per cent of GDP higher than it stood on the eve of the global financial crisis in 2007-08. But since 2012-13 (the peak in the post-GFC recession), total welfare spending has fallen by 1.2 per cent of GDP. Added to this, welfare spending is expected to rise by just 0.1 per cent of GDP across the forecast period until 2029-30 (after U-turns and before any decisions made at the Budget).

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Anand Menon

policyatkings.bsky.social
The Policy Institute @policyatkings.bsky.social · 3d
"The government is clamping down on migration for work and study in a way which is certainly going to have negative impacts for growth"

@jdportes.bsky.social of @ukandeu.bsky.social explains why the latest ONS figures showing a huge drop in net migration will impact economic forecasts

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

anthonypainter.bsky.social
Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 3d
I keep seeing arguments that the Government should have spent the money on services eg Sure Start rather than lifting the two-child benefit cap.

The evidence for cash transfers is very strong. And cash transfers go straight to families.

Their decision is completely evidence backed and valid.
Abstract There is abundant evidence that children in low income households do less well than their peers on a range of developmental outcomes. However, there is continuing uncertainty about how far money itself matters, and how far associations simply reflect other, unobserved, differences between richer and poorer families. The authors con-ducted a systematic review of studies using methods that lend themselves to causal interpretation. To be included, studies had to use Randomised Controlled Trials, quasi-experiments or fixed effect-style techniques on longitudinal data. The results lend strong support to the hypothesis that household income has a positive causal effect on children's outcomes, including their cognitive and social-behavioural development and their health, particularly in households with low income to begin with. There is also clear evidence of a positive causal effect of income on 'intermediate outcomes' that are important for children's development, including maternal mental health, parenting and the home environment. The review also makes a methodological contribution, identi-fying that effects tend to be larger in experimental and quasi-experimental studies than in fixed effect approaches. This finding has implications for our ability to generalise from observational studies. Keywords Poverty Family income Child development Child outcomes Maternal depression. Causal estimates Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s12187-020-09782-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Kitty Stewart K.J.Stewart@lse.ac.uk Kerris Cooper K.M.Cooper@lse.ac.uk 1 Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion (CASE), London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2A, England 2 Department of Social Policy and Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion (CASE), London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2A, England…

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

iandunt.bsky.social
Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 3d
Budget 2025: This is how you lose the world iandunt.substack.com/p/budget-202...

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

jmittra.bsky.social
James Mittra @jmittra.bsky.social · 3d
They think they can balance the country being totally hostile to a relatively small number of asylum seekers; marginally hostile to migrants needed to fill work in key sectors (health, care etc) and international students; and very attractive to high skilled migrants in high pay sectors. They can't.

Reposted by Steve Peers

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3d
The "guy making a case about low taxes" was in fact Karl Williams of the Centre for Policy Studies - author of the fictional/fabricated and now withdrawn "£234 billion" cost number cited by Katie Lam and Reform.

Funnily Amol Rajan didn't ask him about that.. 😉
mariaramirez.bsky.social María Ramírez @mariaramirez.bsky.social · 3d
And again I wonder why a super expert like Portes is not on BBC4 today instead of a guy making a case about low taxes
jdportes.bsky.social Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3d
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.

A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.

Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers

mariaramirez.bsky.social
María Ramírez @mariaramirez.bsky.social · 3d
And again I wonder why a super expert like Portes is not on BBC4 today instead of a guy making a case about low taxes
jdportes.bsky.social Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3d
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.

A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.

Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK net migration falls sharply with drop in arrivals for work and study
Provisional figures for net migration to the UK show levels dropped to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes

jamesbland.bsky.social
James Bland @jamesbland.bsky.social · 3d
I found out that something doesn't work very well. In the interest of not burying it so that someone else goes down this rabbit hole again, maybe I will try to write a paper.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Will Jennings , and 7 more

sundersays.bsky.social
Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 3d
Today's 70% fall in net migration to 205,000 was not one of the six stories in BBC ten o'clock news.

Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters

Down by 140k isn't thought to be.

Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers , and 5 more

liamthorp.bsky.social
Liam Thorp @liamthorp.bsky.social · 3d
The UK, where the day after a decision to take half a million children out of poverty, the media & political world has been full of sneering at those same children & their families, labelling them as ‘Benefits Street’, while the same people are moaning about a tax on £2m mansions. Shameful stuff.

Reposted by Martin McKee, Nando Sigona, Ben H. Ansell , and 8 more

jdportes.bsky.social
Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 3d
Fewer workers. Fewer international students. More people leaving.

A "step in the right direction" according to the PM.

Impossible to take PM/govt seriously on growth if they are deliberately reducing it (and making the fiscal position worse) *as a matter of policy*.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK net migration falls sharply with drop in arrivals for work and study
Provisional figures for net migration to the UK show levels dropped to 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Tim Bale, Paul Davies , and 2 more

zoegrunewald.bsky.social
Zoë Grünewald @zoegrunewald.bsky.social · 4d
The "don't have an extra kid if you can't afford it" brigade get awfully upset when you suggest they don't stay in their £2m house if they can't afford it, don't they?