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Paul Johnson

@paulrjohnson.net

1.6K followers 780 following 750 posts

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him Website: https://paulrjohnson.net Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

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Paul E. Johnson is an American historian and professor emeritus at University of South Carolina.

Source: Wikipedia

Philosophy 17%

History 15%

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Nov 11

I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes.

paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...

The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.

Analysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul Johnson

What if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?

paulrjohnson.net

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Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Annie Kelly @annieknk.bsky.social · 11d

With this ringing endorsement, if you'd like to understand what deeply evil nonsense the literal President of the United States is promoting now please do listen! on.soundcloud.com/0SJT1Mcqx8ks...

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Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Ipsos in the UK @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social · 11d

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos

📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009
📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives

Headline voting intention: September 2025
Reform UK 34%
Labour 22%
Conservative 14%
Lib Dems 12%
Green Party 12%
Other 6%
Reform lead = +12

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 14d

It is so incredibly grim that this is happening, that folks don't seem to believe it is happening (or do not appreciate the extent), and that Labour have been so weak in their response.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 14d

I have had a large number of people say they simply did not understand the extent without posting the actual examples. Hence my approach to doing so

It remains the case that compelling evidence of just how much we are tolerating has yet to wake up those with actual responsibility and power yo act.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 15d

Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Paul E. Johnson

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 14d

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 15d

Quite. So many Labour people on this website visibly have no idea of just how bad things have got for ethnic minorities since they came on, and how their visible indifference lands.

Amrk @amrk.bsky.social · 15d

Also frankly I am quite desperate! A party that’s at best ambivalent on the question of whether I’m English and wants to deport my friends is 9 points ahead in the polls and the current leader is floundering and visibly out of his depth!

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 14d

It drives me insane that no one seems to be able to make a case for the North without demonizing London. I think everyone, including a lot of ordinary folks in London, could benefit from lifting up some of the big cities up North so they can compete with London.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 15d

Burnham’s positioning in the NS and Telegraph is essentially “I will continue to deny the constraints like Keir Starmer, while being even more explicitly hostile to London and the South, where a majority of parliamentary seats are”. Hard to see how that works well for Labour.

Michael @michaeljsc.bsky.social · 15d

not enthused by the Burnham Manifesto as set out here archive.is/9ylaW

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 15d

Michael @michaeljsc.bsky.social · 15d

not enthused by the Burnham Manifesto as set out here archive.is/9ylaW

archive.is

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 16d

Southampton Football Club

The Ineffable Horror of Joe Muggs @joemuggs.bsky.social · 17d

What’s the most Tory-coded thing you actively love?

Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.

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Reposted by Paul E. Johnson, Matthew Kelly, Catherine J. Frieman

The Ineffable Horror of Joe Muggs @joemuggs.bsky.social · 17d

What’s the most Tory-coded thing you actively love?

Me: Essex. Elgar. Country pubs.

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Reposted by Anna O. Law, Paul E. Johnson, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Reposted by Tim Bale, Paul E. Johnson

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 22d

"the hard data suggests that the largest of the UK’s very real problems are no more being caused by mass immigration than they are by a group of charity fundraisers rowing past Great Yarmouth"

on.ft.com/3IsyVVu

@timharford.ft.com with his facts and reasonableness

The UK’s problems aren’t caused by immigration

It’s not hard to see how so many came to worry about the issue. But the data isn’t there

on.ft.com

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 22d

That's the one! Cheers.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 22d

What is the name of the bare bones #rstats package that replicates a lot of dplyr functionality? I've completely forgotten what it is called (and I am hoping I didn't make it up in my head).

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Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · 23d

“If you would look away from the words of Charlie Kirk, from what else would you look away?”

Ta-Nehisi Coates nailes it again.

Charlie Kirk, Redeemed: A Political Class Finds Its Lost Cause

By ignoring the rhetoric and actions of the Turning Point USA founder, pundits and politicians are sanitizing his legacy.

www.vanityfair.com

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Richard S.J. Tol, Dorothy Bishop , and 10 more Jonathan Portes, Richard S.J. Tol, Dorothy Bishop, Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Andrew Scott, Paul E. Johnson, Tom Griffin, Graham Dutfield, Pauline Stafford, James Connelly, Colm O’Cinneíde, Simon Lester

Zoë Grünewald @zoegrunewald.bsky.social · 23d

Kemi Badenoch refusing to acknowledge that Tommy Robinson is "far-right", now on LBC, and refusing to condemn Elon Musk's words. In fact she says what Musk said *isn't* incitement. So what would be incitement then? How violent would his words have to be before he was deemed a threat to this country?

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Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Brendan Nyhan, Jon Green , and 2 more Lisa W. Fazio, Brendan Nyhan, Jon Green, Paul E. Johnson, Mirya R. Holman

Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 23d

Chotiner interview with @lilymasonphd.bsky.social

www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...

Where Political Violence Comes From

Is our era of extreme partisanship to blame?

www.newyorker.com

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Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Tom Usher @tomusher.bsky.social · 23d

I think really all my life all I’ve ever seen and heard is pretending bad things are actually good and good things are actually bad from politicians and the political media. But the reaction to this weekends protest is maybe some of the most powerful pretending I’ve ever seen

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Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders, Will Jennings, Kai Arzheimer , and 3 more Elizabeth Saunders, Will Jennings, Kai Arzheimer, Paul E. Johnson, Steven Fielding, Christina Pagel

Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 24d

superb column from @stephenkb.bsky.social

“racism does not diminish through rising GDP but through the willingness of politicians to argue against it….”

www.ft.com/content/fbbd...

Starmer and Badenoch are handling the far-right march all wrong

A look back to the days of Enoch Powell suggests a better model

www.ft.com

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Calling in sick because I had to replace my coffee beans with baked beans.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Follow-up: What is our position on drinking pre-workout like a morning coffee?

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Is it okay to call in sick because you don't have any coffee beans?

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Is it okay to call in sick because you don't have any coffee beans?

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Paul E. Johnson , and 3 more Jonathan Portes, Will Jennings, Paul E. Johnson, Simon Wren‐Lewis, Stuart White, Stijn Smismans

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 25d

There is a serious failure in UK govt, politics & media to take sufficiently seriously what Musk said & meant with "fight back or die"

= Violence (interethnic civil war) is inevitable so pre-emptive violence - vs migrants, minorities & political opponents - is necessary to avoid existential erasure

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 26d

The common sense meaning should make this Elon Musk's "rivers of blood" moment

Though I think he goes further than Enoch Powell in a couple of important ways

Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 26d

Elon Musk spoke by video to Tommy Robinson's anti-immigrant rally in the UK today.

"You're in a fundamental situation here where, whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you," said Musk. "You either fight back or you die."

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Chess is the game where you don't have any hair and you cheat your way to victory.

Reposted by Andrew Scott, Paul E. Johnson, Enzo Rossi , and 2 more Andrew Scott, Paul E. Johnson, Enzo Rossi, Aurélien Mondon, Maria Sobolewska

Dorian Lynskey @dorianlynskey.bsky.social · 25d

The myth that racism is primarily driven by economic conditions must die, especially on the left. It is a misdiagnosis and a kind of excuse

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Why don't the teams just play good? Have they considered that tactic? #epl-live

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Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Brendan Nyhan, Paul E. Johnson , and 4 more Jan W. Mueller, Brendan Nyhan, Paul E. Johnson, Robert Black, Alan Richardson, David R. Miller, Raúl Pacheco-Vega

jen sometimes aph 🌻 @bunnibytz.bsky.social · 25d

via @mkraju.bsky.social

Fetterman: “If you actually compare [Trump] to an actual autocrat, it is not just that… This is not an autocrat. This is a product of a democratic election.”

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Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders, Will Jennings, Paul E. Johnson , and 3 more Elizabeth Saunders, Will Jennings, Paul E. Johnson, Paul Nightingale, Federica Genovese, Christina Pagel

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 25d

As I say, it really does demonstrate why political leadership on racism matters - a non-trivial chunk of people will follow where leaders of their big party move. Heath and Wilson proved that in 1968, and Starmer and Badenoch are proving it in 2025.

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Also possible I am just scarred by the 2-2. Up there with the worst moments I have had as a fan haha

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Even if we get our shit together I don't feel confident going to Fratton Park. Always feels like Pompey have the beating of us even when we are the better side haha

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

It is an amazing experience! Highly recommend it.

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 25d

Think we should be expecting more from this team, and have at times shown flashes of that this season, but yeah weren't at the races today. It brings me no joy to report that your lot definitely didn't look like a team at risk of relegation today haha