Paul E. Johnson | Lightnews

Paul Johnson

@paulrjohnson.net

1.6K followers 800 following 860 posts

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him

Website: https://paulrjohnson.net
Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

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Paul E. Johnson is an American historian and professor emeritus at University of South Carolina.

Source: Wikipedia

Philosophy 17%

History 15%

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Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Nov 11

I recently wrote a blog post about the impact of clubs’ financial resources on football outcomes.

paulrjohnson.net/blog/2024-10...

The TL;DR is that the rich stay winning (shocking, I know), but I thought I’d put together a little thread of some of the findings because Always Be Posting.

Analysing Money’s Effect on Football Using Multilevel Regression – Paul Johnson

What if I told you that we can use statistics to laugh at the silly football teams too?

paulrjohnson.net

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Reece Jones, Kim L. Scheppele , and 30 more Joanna Bryson, Reece Jones, Kim L. Scheppele, Elizabeth Sharrow, Elizabeth Saunders, John Horgan, Steve Peers, Mary Feeney, Paul E. Johnson, Bonnie Honig, Julia Lynch, Nazita Lajevardi, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Els Torreele, Jen Schneider, David Rosnick, Anders Sundnes Løvlie, Paul Fisher, John Kenneth White, Alfie Kohn, Raúl Pacheco-Vega, Hisham Zerriffi, Ian Bruff, Melanie O’Brien, Uwe M. Martens, John H. Knox, Nicole Guenther Discenza, Suzanne Conklin Akbari, Jaap Kooijman, Ernesto Castañeda, Stuart Shapiro, Kristina McElheran, Carly D. Ziter

Margaret Killjoy @margaret.bsky.social · 2d

I came to Minneapolis to report on what's going on, and one of the main questions I showed up with is "just what is the scale of the resistance?" After all, we're all used to the news calling Portland a "war zone" or whatever when it's just some protests in one part of town.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 3d

Don't worry some of us are just doing shit and infrequent work so we're not going anywhere

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 3d

So bummed by the fbref news I haven't checked on the real news. Something to look forward to tomorrow, I'm sure it's going great.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 4d

Just to reiterate: Fuck Opta.

Grace Robertson 🏳️‍⚧️ @graceonfootball.com · 4d

Opta's position seems to be "FBRef bad, FIFA and gambling companies good". Interesting.

Danny Page @danny.page · 4d

interesting timing. (h/t @afhstewart.bsky.social) inside.fifa.com/tournament-o...

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 4d

Damn. This sucks. Fuck Opta, but thanks to everyone at FBref for all the amazing work they've done over the years to get good quality data out in the open. Think the conversation around the sport has been much better for their efforts, and will suffer massively now.

James Nalton @jdnalton.bsky.social · 4d

Down with this sort of thing 👎

"FBref & Stathead Data Update

Posted by sean on January 20, 2026

"At Sports Reference we have taken great pride in the role FBref has played over the last seven years as an expansive source for soccer fans all over the world. Unfortunately, last week the provider of our advanced soccer data sent us a letter terminating our access to their data feeds and requiring the deletion of their data from the site immediately. As a result, we have removed the provider's data from FBref and Stathead in compliance with their demand.

The data provider has asserted that our use of the data violated our agreement. Their demand came unexpectedly despite our long-standing and good-faith operation of FBref and Stathead. We have operated the sites in a consistent manner from their creation (well before the signing of this agreement) through today, and we have always welcomed open and frank discussions about how the sites operate.

Any effort to retain access to this advanced data would have been costly and uncertain. Under the circumstances, we have decided to comply with the termination notice.

This creates a significant gap in the stats offered on FBref and Stathead. We are heartbroken both for our users who have come to rely upon this product and for our team that has spent thousands of hours bringing these stats to life and supporting our users. We are especially upset by the massive step back this creates in access for women's advanced soccer data. Data Democratization is a core Sports Reference value and the removal of this data is a sad day for all of us.

We will take time to assess possible paths forward. FBref will continue to present the deep historic basic data we have for over one hundred competitions, but if we present advanced data in the future it will certainly have a dramatically smaller scale.

Please do not send requests for data or access to a product that no longer exists. The advanced data has been deleted and cannot be provided."

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Grace Robertson 🏳️‍⚧️ @graceonfootball.com · 4d

Opta's position seems to be "FBRef bad, FIFA and gambling companies good". Interesting.

Danny Page @danny.page · 4d

interesting timing. (h/t @afhstewart.bsky.social) inside.fifa.com/tournament-o...

FIFA select Stats Perform as first official worldwide betting data and betting streaming rights distributor, including exclusive World Cup 2026™ rights

FIFA today announced that it has selected sports AI and data pioneer Stats Perform as its first-ever official betting data and streaming rights distributor.

inside.fifa.com

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

James Nalton @jdnalton.bsky.social · 4d

Feels like public access to interesting and useful soccer football data is getting worse rather than better. It probably peaked when FBref had Statsbomb data, other sites had Opta data, Soccerway existed in its original form, and WyScout was more accessible.

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

James Nalton @jdnalton.bsky.social · 4d

Down with this sort of thing 👎

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Danny Page @danny.page · 4d

Like you can get even more granular than FBRef ever did on FotMob.

Basic xG totals was against the agreement? What?

FotMob shot map with expected goals for each shot

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 4d

Sure seems like a good time to reconsider that Palantir deal...

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 4d

So many British people are clearly unaware of the downside risks and consequences of the Greenland crisis, including, many people whose job it is to inform the country about it:

Britain is underprepared for this crisis

Keir Starmer needs to make clear the stakes over Greenland

www.ft.com

Reposted by Will Jennings, Paul E. Johnson, Paul Nightingale

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 4d

So many British people are clearly unaware of the downside risks and consequences of the Greenland crisis, including, many people whose job it is to inform the country about it:

Britain is underprepared for this crisis

Keir Starmer needs to make clear the stakes over Greenland

www.ft.com

Reposted by Andrew Scott, Martin Paul Eve, Lesley A. Hall , and 3 more Andrew Scott, Martin Paul Eve, Lesley A. Hall, Paul E. Johnson, Holger Nehring, Lorna Hughes

LaindonFeminist: Labour led by Keir for me @viviane49.bsky.social · 13d

I wonder what Londoners know that the rest of the country don’t?

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 17d

This shit is wild. As a (quite large) straight, white man, I get to enjoy a safety that others are not afforded, but even so I notice a difference between London and Southampton. It's so rare to get any grief in London. But I still get people from elsewhere telling me how unsafe London is!

Zoë Crowther @zoecrowther.bsky.social · Dec 11

The "London = most dangerous place on the planet" discourse is still going strong on Twitter

I've actually been surprised by how little I've felt threatened as a woman in London (having lived in Tooting and Peckham)

I loved growing up in Nottingham, but I had much, much worse experiences there tbh

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · 18d

Just slid around on the very icy front step to my house and I am certain I just escaped death.

Reposted by Scott L. Greer, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Chris Hanretty , and 2 more Scott L. Greer, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Chris Hanretty, Paul E. Johnson, Jens Rydgren

Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 22d

By way of preparing for teaching and making sense of current events, I spent today trying to synthesise the demand-side literature on democratic backsliding (see figure below). The starting point of most of this literature is simple: Do voters punish politicians who violate democratic norms, or do

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Jan Van Haaren @janvanhaaren.be · 26d

Continuing the tradition, I have compiled an end-of-year overview of the soccer analytics content that I liked the most in 2025. This edition includes pointers to about 200 resources, including research papers, blog posts, news articles, podcasts, and webinars.

janvanhaaren.be/posts/soccer...

Soccer Analytics 2025 Review – Jan Van Haaren

Collection of the soccer analytics content that I liked the most in 2025!

janvanhaaren.be

Reposted by Roger A. Pielke, John McLaren, Philip N. Cohen , and 12 more Roger A. Pielke, John McLaren, Philip N. Cohen, Paul E. Johnson, Juan Cole, Smith, Alan Richardson, David R. Miller, Els Torreele, Brian Keegan, Aurélien Mondon, Mark Rice, Richard M. Carpiano, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Dan Immergluck

Michael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social · Dec 24

This is genuinely horrifying. Fact-free far-right agitprop given accolades by credible media across the political spectrum.

Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.social · Dec 22

Congratulations to Stephen Macedo & Frances Lee, whose book In Covid's Wake has been recognized as:

⭐ A @newyorker.com Best Book of the Year
⭐ An @economist.com Book of the Year
⭐ A @wsj.com Best Book of the Year

Learn more about this eye-opening book: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

In Covid's Wake: How Our Politics Failed Us by Stephen Macedo and Frances Lee. A New Yorker Best Book of the Year; An Economist Best Book of the Year; A Wall Street Journal Best Book of the Year

Reposted by Scott L. Greer, Lesley A. Hall, Paul E. Johnson , and 4 more Scott L. Greer, Lesley A. Hall, Paul E. Johnson, Brian Keegan, Alberto Corsín Jiménez, Richard M. Carpiano, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.social · Dec 22

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Dec 20

Me every time anyone that has ever used a computer disagrees with me

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · Dec 20

personally getting very irritated by the unbelievable arrogance of the data boys

Simpler Times Rememberer @reedonly.bsky.social · Dec 20

when we said “defer electoral strategy to the actual politicians running for actual offices” we meant “after calculating wins above replacement somehow”

Reposted by Rosemary A. Joyce, Paul E. Johnson

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · Dec 20

personally getting very irritated by the unbelievable arrogance of the data boys

Simpler Times Rememberer @reedonly.bsky.social · Dec 20

when we said “defer electoral strategy to the actual politicians running for actual offices” we meant “after calculating wins above replacement somehow”

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Dec 20

I'm a doppelbock guy now.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Dec 20

My frustration with it is that he's actually not bad. He's raw. Clearly still a novice. But he has some tools. Instead of doing this shit he could drop down a weight and try fight for some domestic belts where he isn't embarrassing himself and the sport.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Dec 18

I was going to pick up some fancy beers for Christmas Day and then drink some less fancy but still fancy beers for Thursday. But Borough Market hates me specifically so I can't.

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Dec 18

Borough Market closing at 5pm on a Thursday (it's the new Friday, haven't they heard?) this close to Christmas is a fucking travesty. Oh yeah I guess I can just go fuck myself huh Borough Market?

Paul Johnson @paulrjohnson.net · Dec 12

How the fuck are you gonna drive the train then?!

Reposted by Paul E. Johnson

Laurent Pech 🇺🇦 @profpech.bsky.social · Dec 12

"The fact that the United States has crossed the line into competitive authoritarianism does not mean that its democratic decline has reached a point of no return. Trump’s authoritarian offensive is now unmistakable, but it is reversible"

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...