Juan Moreno‐Cruz

Juan Moreno-Cruz

@jmorenocruz.bsky.social

17K followers 1.8K following 2.7K posts

Canada Research Chair in Energy Transitions
University of Waterloo.
https://morenocruz.org

Videos

Economics 36%

Environmental science 29%

Posts Replies Media Videos

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 17h

Haha.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/u...

House Votes to Cancel Trump’s Canada Tariffs

www.nytimes.com

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 21h

😂🥹

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 21h

Toddlers are LLMs and LLMs are toddlers:

We are never done training them.
We have no idea what goes on in their minds.
They say the darndest things.
They take all our time.
We are obsessed with them and show them off.
They keep us up at night.

Jessica Leight @leightjessica.bsky.social · 1d

Love all the hype about AI these days, I have a *long* to-do list ready
-organize all 3 kids' valentines
-put away laundry
-sleep train youngest
-address separation anxiety of other two
-clean up some stuff, in general
anyone tested any of the new models

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 23h

I bet many of you are thinking of issues of reverse causality in my statement above and the validity of any identifying assumption that could credibly result in a palusibel causal interpretation of the results and there, my friends, lies the issue.

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 23h

This is it.

I guess we could do a diff-in-diff on the role of diff-in-diff on the evalaution of outcomes, before and after the diff-in-diff revolution.

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 1d

It's ironic to see a discipline care **so much** about unbiasedness (causal inference!) at the level of a single test but then have a research production system and culture that is basically a ferocious bias generation machine. This is not good.

Reposted by Juan Moreno‐Cruz

Jessica Leight @leightjessica.bsky.social · 1d

Reposted by Philip N. Cohen, Alexander Wuttke, Daniel S. Goldberg , and 2 more Philip N. Cohen, Alexander Wuttke, Daniel S. Goldberg, Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Federica Genovese

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 1d

Reposted by Brian A. Nosek, Brendan Nyhan, James P. Collins , and 25 more Brian A. Nosek, Brendan Nyhan, James P. Collins, Ben Bond‐Lamberty, Ruth Dassonneville, Alistair Munro, Brian Schaffner, Caroline Krafft, Philip N. Cohen, Alexander Wuttke, John Holbein, Chris Hanretty, Scott Clifford, Michael Kevane, Flávio Azevedo, Max Nathan, Veli‐Matti Karhulahti, Philip Cowley, Julia Lynch, Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Patrick Präg, Marcus Credé, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Tom Louwerse, Aleksandra Urman, Samuel Coavoux, Jake Anders, Roman Senninger

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 1d

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 1d

A very sad day in Canada today. I’m so sorry for all the families in Tumbler Ridge whose lives have forever changed.

I hope this gives impetus for stricter gun laws.

I hope @mark-carney.bsky.social and the provinces understand the Canadian soul is at stake here.

Reposted by Juan Moreno‐Cruz

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 1d

Three keys to unlock AI in Africa: Power, connectivity & data

In this week's episode of Ideas in Development, Rose Mutiso joined @deenamousa.com & @olihanney.bsky.social to spell out the fundamentals that need to be in place for AI to take off in #Africa: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5td...

AI in Africa with Rose Mutiso

YouTube video by VoxDev

www.youtube.com

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 1d

110 kidnappings per 100,000.

There are 7 times more ICE kidnappings in the US than the next next country, Ecuador, with 15.15

worldpopulationreview.com/country-rank...

Jen Bendery @jbendery.bsky.social · 1d

A stunning detail the ICE chief shared in this hearing that was supposed to be a brag, except it isn't: ICE has arrested 379,000 people between Jan. 2025-Jan. 2026 -- but only 8,700 were suspected gang members or known suspected terrorists.

That's 2%! www.huffpost.com/entry/latest...

Congresswoman Uses Simple Math To Show How Broken ICE Is

www.huffpost.com

Reposted by Meredith Broussard, Jason Mittell, Amanda Lotz , and 30 more Meredith Broussard, Jason Mittell, Amanda Lotz, Mary Bosworth, Nandita Sharma, Margaret Mitchell, Will Jennings, Peter Thorne, Steven French, David Feldman, Martin Tomko, Peter Campbell, Jacob Montgomery, Joseph Schafer, Paul E. Smaldino, Linda Martín Alcoff, Michelle Everson, Melanie C. Green, Michael Zimmer, Stephen D. Murphy, Graham Webster, Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Samantha Brennan, Michael D. McDonald, Jessica Vitak, Woodrow Hartzog, Sam Kamin, Meredith Farkas, Magda Teter, Suzanne Conklin Akbari, Evan Roberts, David Neilson, Kevin Grant

WeRateDogs @weratedogs.com · 1d

we need to talk about that Ring Super Bowl ad

Jen Bendery @jbendery.bsky.social · 1d

Congresswoman Uses Simple Math To Show How Broken ICE Is

www.huffpost.com

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

Yes, of course. I forgot to mention that proximity to Banff facilitates osmosis.

Reposted by Juan Moreno‐Cruz

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 2d

🆕 Excited to announce our free online lecture series on Industrial Development

To mark the release of our new VoxDevLit next week, with Senior Editors Francesco Amodio & Markus Poschke, we have organised a series of lectures on the key topics related to industrialisation.

Link to register below ⤵️

Reposted by Juan Moreno‐Cruz

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 2d

My introduction promises a conversation the results are not entirely prepared to have

Reposted by Juan Moreno‐Cruz

Oliver Hanney @olihanney.bsky.social · 2d

🆕 Can AI take off in Africa?

Today on Ideas in Development, Rose Mutiso (African Tech Futures Lab) joins @deenamousa.com & I to discuss the need for an energy and digital infrastructure revolution on the continent + how to make it happen.

Listen now @voxdev.bsky.social: voxdev.org/topic/techno...

AI in Africa: Barriers, opportunities and policy

Can AI take off in Africa? Rose Mutiso joins us to discuss the need for an energy and digital infrastructure revolution on the continent, and how to make it happen.

voxdev.org

Reposted by Joshua Goodman, Ingo Rohlfing, Juan Moreno‐Cruz

Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 2d

"Academic publishing as it currently exists is dead."

This is probably overstated, but if you're an early-career academic, it's worth taking seriously that tenured Stanford professors who've been working with AI more than most are saying things like this out loud now.

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

Apparently, they fired all the Spanish-speaking journalists.

The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 3d

Analysis: Weeks before he set foot on the stage, Bad Bunny’s halftime performance had already become a media event.

But if you were looking for political commentary, the closest that you got was when he said “God bless America” in English.

Analysis | Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show was expected to provoke. Did it?

The Bad Bunny Super Bowl show nodded to injustices in Puerto Rico but mostly evoked wholesome family values that meshed with the more sentimental commercials.

www.washingtonpost.com

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

Hey now, we know triple axels, safety grips and run backs better than anyone who has spent a few minutes watching CBC Gem.

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

I’m surprised by how quickly I become an expert in winter sports I’ve never attempted to do and have almost never seen.

That what a PhD in Economics trained me for.

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

Hopefully someone can jump in, but the way in understood it is reverse vertical means you can still rank the trait, but the sign of the ranking is not stable. The ranking goes from more is better to less is better. The instability can come from context, the outcome, or the historical period.

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

Also great to see Moscona, @nathannunn.bsky.social and Robinson in the same paper.

Three generations of the best development economists represented.

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

As always, the framework they provide is illuminating to the point that after seeing it, you cannot unsee it.

It is what my econ professor Francisco Gonzalez would call ex-post obvious. It is so clear you think you knew it before, but you didn't.

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

I think Jesus's call to love indiscriminately and without limits is kind of giving you the answer, America.

Reposted by Ben Barr, Nathan Nunn, Kris Inwood , and 1 more Ben Barr, Nathan Nunn, Kris Inwood, Peter Bergman

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

Everyone working in development economics should read this chapter.

They provide evidence that what works in development is less about finding universally good levers and more about designing interventions compatible with locally embedded social structures.

www.nber.org/papers/w3481...

Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 2d

It's the Goldilocks age. Except everything hurts.

Reposted by Thomas Arnold, Juan Moreno‐Cruz

Melanie Mitchell @melaniemitchell.bsky.social · 2d

I wrote about the late philosopher Brian Cantwell Smith, and his profound thinking about AI and the nature of intelligence.

aiguide.substack.com/p/on-brian-c...