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Jay Shambaugh

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Jay C. Shambaugh is an American economist who served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs at the… more

Jay Shambaugh
H-index: 31
Economics 93%
Business 2%
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by Jay Shambaugh

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
My high school AP US history teacher taught us that John Adams was the most important person in the founding of our democracy because he lost to the opposition party and went home.
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by Jay Shambaugh

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
You can always learn a great deal about today when reading @trevondlogan.bsky.social write about our history.
trevondlogan.bsky.social
Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 16d
A short 🧵 so everyone can learn that political violence is nothing new in America.

Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7

by Trevon D. Logan — Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Claudia Sahm, Peter Beresford , and 4 more

trevondlogan.bsky.social
A short 🧵 so everyone can learn that political violence is nothing new in America.

Of the 1,331 Black officials who served during Reconstruction, 158 (10.4%) were subjected to political violence. 1/7
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by Jay Shambaugh

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
The Trump admin backing off the ban of noncompetes is gratuitously bad policy. When I was Director of @hamiltonproject.org we did lots of work highlighting the bad effects on workers, wages, and the economy that comes with limiting workers ability to switch jobs.This will hurt people and the economy
reuters.com
Reuters @reuters.com · Sep 6
Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements reut.rs/4njejxQ
Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements
President Donald Trump's administration abandoned on Friday the U.S. government's legal defense of a rule adopted under former President Joe Biden that had banned agreements commonly signed by workers not to join rivals of their employers or launch competing businesses.
reut.rs
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh

reuters.com
Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements reut.rs/4njejxQ
Trump administration drops defense of ban on employee 'noncompete' agreements
President Donald Trump's administration abandoned on Friday the U.S. government's legal defense of a rule adopted under former President Joe Biden that had banned agreements commonly signed by workers not to join rivals of their employers or launch competing businesses.
reut.rs
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh

gregdaco.bsky.social
#Manufacturing purchasing managers are severely depressed:

❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc"
❗️"Too much uncertainty"
❗️"Unstable" policy
❗️"Worse than Great Recession"
❗️"Layoffs" 15%
❗️"It's survival"
❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"
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by David Feldman — Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Jonathan Portes, Michael Barnett , and 15 more

tderyugina.bsky.social
The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.

docs.google.com/document/d/1...
7 86 130

Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Joanna Bryson, Claudia Sahm , and 8 more

sarahoconnorft.ft.com
Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...
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by Jay Shambaugh

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Good summary of Trump’s statement he fired Fed governor Lisa Cook. He cannot fire her without cause and it does not appear there is cause. Undermining the Fed will not generate an immediate crisis, but undermining the Fed and the rule of law is bad for the economy and country over time.
pkrugman.bsky.social
Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · Aug 26
I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
In the Matter of Lisa Cook
Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.
paulkrugman.substack.com
1 4 6

by Paul Krugman — Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Brendan Nyhan, John McLaren , and 5 more

pkrugman.bsky.social
I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...
In the Matter of Lisa Cook
Trump’s attempt to fire a Fed governor is illegal. Now we find out whether that matters.
paulkrugman.substack.com
50 710 2.2K

Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Dani Rodrik, Jan W. Mueller , and 22 more

bencasselman.bsky.social
Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
bencasselman.bsky.social
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 26
President Trump said he is firing Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, "effective immediately." It's his most direct assault yet on Fed independence -- and a step that it is far from clear he can legally take.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
Trump Says He Is Removing Lisa Cook From Federal Reserve Board
www.nytimes.com
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by Jay Shambaugh — Reposted by: Claudia Sahm, Antonio Fatás

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
This is something the Administration would know if they read Lisa Cook’s work instead of attacking her. Arguably, her research has never been more relevant to the Fed’s mission. One has to assume innovation and biz formation by immigrants is falling right now.
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by Jay Shambaugh — Reposted by: Claudia Sahm

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Important article by @bencasselman.bsky.social Tariffs and cuts to key programs get attention and will do immediate damage. But Trump is also undermining long run growth. I’d add to Ben’s list: Trump is making parts of the population feel less secure which reduces innovation and entrepreneurship.
bencasselman.bsky.social
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 22
The U.S. has enjoyed a decades-long economic advantage thanks to its reputation as the safest place in the world for investors to put their money and for entrepreneurs to build their businesses.

President Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... #EconSky
Trump’s Attacks on Institutions Threaten a Bulwark of Economic Strength
www.nytimes.com
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by Jay Shambaugh — Reposted by: Claudia Sahm, Brendan Nyhan, Tom Clark , and 4 more

bencasselman.bsky.social
The U.S. has enjoyed a decades-long economic advantage thanks to its reputation as the safest place in the world for investors to put their money and for entrepreneurs to build their businesses.

President Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b... #EconSky
Trump’s Attacks on Institutions Threaten a Bulwark of Economic Strength
www.nytimes.com
58 72 210

by Jay Shambaugh

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
This will get lost in the shuffle of so many damaging high profile actions by this Administration. But this is just gratuitously bad. The government should support competition and try to help make sure consumers, workers, and small biz don’t get squeezed by huge firms’ market power.
martingaynor.bsky.social
Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · Aug 14
This is a step backwards. A whole of government approach to competition is crucial. This administration could have replaced the EO with one of their own. They didn’t - which accentuates concerns that they’re not committed to supporting and promoting competition. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Revocation of Executive Order on Competition
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1.
www.whitehouse.gov
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by Martin Gaynor — Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh

martingaynor.bsky.social
This is a step backwards. A whole of government approach to competition is crucial. This administration could have replaced the EO with one of their own. They didn’t - which accentuates concerns that they’re not committed to supporting and promoting competition. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Revocation of Executive Order on Competition
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1.
www.whitehouse.gov
1 4

by Jay Shambaugh — Reposted by: Aaron Sojourner

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
@jasonfurman.bsky.social is appropriately blunt and brutal in his assessment of Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and his atrocious nomination of EJ Antoni. Given the chaos Trump has unleashed on the economy, it’s important to have data to track it. This step undermines the data.
jasonfurman.bsky.social
Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · Aug 14
I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission.

Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...
Opinion | Why Economists Are Worried About Trump’s B.L.S. Changes
Most of us just accept that government economic data is the best possible estimate of the economy. That could change, and that would be bad for all of us.
www.nytimes.com
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Aaron Sojourner, Lauren Hersch Nicholas

jasonfurman.bsky.social
I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission.

Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...
Opinion | Why Economists Are Worried About Trump’s B.L.S. Changes
Most of us just accept that government economic data is the best possible estimate of the economy. That could change, and that would be bad for all of us.
www.nytimes.com
4 21 81

by Erica L. Groshen — Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Joshua L. Rosenbloom, Trevon D. Logan , and 3 more

ericagroshen.bsky.social
Ending publication of monthly Current Economic Statistics (CES) would violate the will of Congress as expressed federal law.

It would also violate OMB's Statistical Policy Directive 3, which governs all Principal Federal Economic Indicators, including the CES.
www.bls.gov/bls/statisti...
www.bls.gov
4 14 33

by Douglas A. Irwin — Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Nicholas A. Christakis, Keith Head , and 1 more

douglasirwin.bsky.social
The US Constitution forbids export taxes but I guess this payment isn't a "tax" but a payout....🤔 www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/t...
U.S. Government to Take Cut of Nvidia and AMD A.I. Chip Sales to China
www.nytimes.com
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Claudia Sahm, Timothy J. Bartik , and 3 more

jedkolko.bsky.social
For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.

No longer.

Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Aaron Sojourner, Antonio Fatás

jasonfurman.bsky.social
This is awful. Reliable economic data is a key strength of the US economy.

When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises.

I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh

laurenhlb.bsky.social
I guess we're past the point of persuasion, but don't say we didn't warn you.

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
Proposed SNAP cuts would permanently undermine recession readiness and responsiveness - The Hamilton Project
Lauren Bauer and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach warn that the budget bill would undermine SNAP's role as an automatic stabilizer during recessions.
www.hamiltonproject.org
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Martin McKee, Ron Boschma , and 8 more

volts.wtf
Elon Musk casually, and illegally, dismantled USAID. According to a new study in the Lancet, that action will lead to *14 million* premature deaths between 2025 and 2030.

Again: Elon Musk is directly responsible for 14 million coming deaths. 4.5 million will be children.
Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
USAID funding has significantly contributed to the reduction in adult and child mortality across low-income and middle-income countries over the past two decades. Our estimates show that, unless the a...
www.thelancet.com
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh

fbermingham.bsky.social
Xi is *this* close to saying "overcapacity". On the tip of his tongue!

China needs to “lawfully regulate enterprises’ disorderly low-price competition, guide companies to improve product quality, promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity”

www.scmp.com/economy/chin...
China’s Xi singles out ‘disorderly low-price competition’ for attention
Officials have favoured a vaguer term – “involutionary competition” – but president cut to the chase at top-level economic meeting.
www.scmp.com
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by Jay Shambaugh

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
USAID programs have had meaningful impacts around the world, saving lives and bolstering U.S. soft power.

The cuts by the Trump admin have already killed thousands and millions more will die over the next few years. A tragedy.
agawande.bsky.social
Atul Gawande @agawande.bsky.social · Jul 1
STAGGERING: This new study of 133 countries is the first to estimate the impact of all USAID’s work. In 2 decades, it has saved *92M* lives. Current cuts, if not reversed, are forecast to cost up to *14M* lives thru 2030. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
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by Michael A. Clemens — Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Joanna Bryson, Steven Heydemann , and 14 more

agawande.bsky.social
STAGGERING: This new study of 133 countries is the first to estimate the impact of all USAID’s work. In 2 decades, it has saved *92M* lives. Current cuts, if not reversed, are forecast to cost up to *14M* lives thru 2030. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
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by Jay Shambaugh

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
Sometimes in policy, there are tradeoffs, but this 1 horrible bill is just awful in all dimensions.

It blows out the debt and deficit leaving us worse prepared for real challenges

Does serious damage to the safety net

Crushes US clean energy industry

Undermines long run growth

Truly awful
kclausing.bsky.social
Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · Jun 30
One silver lining I see in this terrible OBBB bill is that the entire expert community is aligned against it. That speaks to the integrity of that community.

But it also shows nearly universal acknowledgement that this utterly unprincipled bill will generate costs that far exceed any benefits.
whitehouse.senate.gov
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse @whitehouse.senate.gov · Jun 30
Today, a chamber that once filled me with wonderment made me feel disgust.
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Reposted by: Jay Shambaugh, Kimberly A. Clausing

kclausing.bsky.social
One silver lining I see in this terrible OBBB bill is that the entire expert community is aligned against it. That speaks to the integrity of that community.

But it also shows nearly universal acknowledgement that this utterly unprincipled bill will generate costs that far exceed any benefits.
whitehouse.senate.gov
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse @whitehouse.senate.gov · Jun 30
Today, a chamber that once filled me with wonderment made me feel disgust.
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by Jay Shambaugh

jaycshambaugh.bsky.social
This story does an excellent job walking through why PEPFAR has been so critical to saving lives and what a successful program it has been. Destroying it and so much else of our overseas aid quickly and haphazardly has been a disaster for people and for US reputation and soft power.
jonlambert.bsky.social
Jonathan Lambert @jonlambert.bsky.social · Jun 13
Take some time to read this really powerful portrait from @gabrielleemanuel.bsky.social on the difference PEPFAR has made in one little girl's life, and how it's unraveled after the Trump administration's cuts to foreign aid, which the House voted to codify yesterday.
www.npr.org/sections/goa...
An AIDS orphan, a pastor and his frantic search for the meds that keep her alive
In the wake of U.S. aid cuts, Pastor Billy is reminded of his twin sister's death from AIDS. He doesn't want 9-year-old Diana, who's HIV-positive, to meet the same fate.
www.npr.org
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