Anthony Wells
@anthonyjwells.bsky.social
Head of European Political & Social Research at YouGov. Dartfordian. Hates agree-disagree statements.
This is very good from Peter - and basically shows how the British Polling Council rules are supposed to work.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
How Whitehall suppressed the truth about the doctors strike
The Times was fed a front-page story that misled its readers
kellnerp.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:01 AM
This is very good from Peter - and basically shows how the British Polling Council rules are supposed to work.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-whiteh...
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Why a media scoop about Labour's internal polling is less exciting than that makes it sound - and also some rather strange things in the details of how a poll about striking doctors has been covered buff.ly/oK0gbtu
The misleading mystique of "internal polling"
Welcome to the 187th edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), which takes a look at “internal polling” and why a media scoop about Labour’s internal polling is not nearly as insightful as it may seem.
buff.ly
November 16, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Why a media scoop about Labour's internal polling is less exciting than that makes it sound - and also some rather strange things in the details of how a poll about striking doctors has been covered buff.ly/oK0gbtu
Reposted by Anthony Wells
I am not impressed by the polling some people keep sending me on assisted dying: buff.ly/wErlwoC
November 4, 2025 at 10:18 AM
I am not impressed by the polling some people keep sending me on assisted dying: buff.ly/wErlwoC
Reposted by Anthony Wells
There's going to be a lot of focus on the topline -- that polling was more accurate than in 2016 and 2020 but still biased towards Dems on average by 2.7 pp -- but I want to highlight some of the other findings I found most interesting
🚨It's finally here!🚨
AAPOR's Taskforce on 2024 Pre-Election Polling report is out!
Full report: /https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2024-Pre-Election-Polling_Report.pdf
Executive summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
AAPOR's Taskforce on 2024 Pre-Election Polling report is out!
Full report: /https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2024-Pre-Election-Polling_Report.pdf
Executive summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 6:56 PM
There's going to be a lot of focus on the topline -- that polling was more accurate than in 2016 and 2020 but still biased towards Dems on average by 2.7 pp -- but I want to highlight some of the other findings I found most interesting
Reposted by Anthony Wells
We either exclude or reassign undecideds in voting intention polls because the purpose is to get a picture of how people would vote, and 'don't know' isn't an option in the voting booth.
I don't see a justification for it when being uncertain, conflicted, or uninformed is a valid position.
I don't see a justification for it when being uncertain, conflicted, or uninformed is a valid position.
October 15, 2025 at 7:43 AM
We either exclude or reassign undecideds in voting intention polls because the purpose is to get a picture of how people would vote, and 'don't know' isn't an option in the voting booth.
I don't see a justification for it when being uncertain, conflicted, or uninformed is a valid position.
I don't see a justification for it when being uncertain, conflicted, or uninformed is a valid position.
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Great blog dissecting a badly conducted, badly presented and badly reported poll. Stuff like this damages the credibility of polling (and of poll reporting).
My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
Peers beware
Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Great blog dissecting a badly conducted, badly presented and badly reported poll. Stuff like this damages the credibility of polling (and of poll reporting).
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Shocked, SHOCKED that this person is doing this thing again
My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
Peers beware
Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 7:30 AM
Shocked, SHOCKED that this person is doing this thing again
Reposted by Anthony Wells
My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
Peers beware
Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 5:56 AM
My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
Reposted by Anthony Wells
A very good read.
My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware
Peers beware
Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying
kellnerp.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 7:06 AM
A very good read.
I am very much of the "you should publish null findings" school of thought. This isn't really that, but as you might imagine the original inspiration of this was the media fuss around Adolescence, and horror stories about what young men thought.
And, well, see for yourself
bsky.app/profile/youg...
And, well, see for yourself
bsky.app/profile/youg...
🧵/ Our major new study on young men, masculinity, and misogyny questions the extent to which Gen Z men are really more likely to hold misogynist views than older generations of men
October 14, 2025 at 4:00 PM
I am very much of the "you should publish null findings" school of thought. This isn't really that, but as you might imagine the original inspiration of this was the media fuss around Adolescence, and horror stories about what young men thought.
And, well, see for yourself
bsky.app/profile/youg...
And, well, see for yourself
bsky.app/profile/youg...
Reposted by Anthony Wells
This is my regular reminder to everyone that jstor is open to the general public now; a free account there will give you access to 100 papers a year.
regrettably if you try to point this out online you'll get yelled out by 79208 journalists going OH SO YOU WANT JOURNALISTS TO STARVE??? even if you're, say, a journalist yourself, and point out that while there are clearly no easy answers, the status quo isn't exactly working for society
September 29, 2025 at 1:19 PM
This is my regular reminder to everyone that jstor is open to the general public now; a free account there will give you access to 100 papers a year.
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Absolute must-read from @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social. It's hard to imagine how Labour could be getting it more wrong - not least by talking up the replacement of the Conservatives by Reform, which will only accelerate the cannibalisation of the former's vote by the latter!
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
September 29, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Absolute must-read from @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social. It's hard to imagine how Labour could be getting it more wrong - not least by talking up the replacement of the Conservatives by Reform, which will only accelerate the cannibalisation of the former's vote by the latter!
Reposted by Anthony Wells
The actual findings of this poll aren't as overwhelming as the headline and opening paragraphs make out. The 67% who supposedly support criminalising buying sex is reached by excluding the 36% of respondents who neither support nor oppose the policy. Only 43% actually support it.
Public backs plan to criminalise people who buy sex from prostitutes
EXCLUSIVE: Polling shows MSP Ash Regan has voters on her side as she tries to criminalise sex buying.
www.dailyrecord.co.uk
September 29, 2025 at 9:42 AM
The actual findings of this poll aren't as overwhelming as the headline and opening paragraphs make out. The 67% who supposedly support criminalising buying sex is reached by excluding the 36% of respondents who neither support nor oppose the policy. Only 43% actually support it.
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Some lovely polling published by the Policy Inst at KCL today on partial quotations www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-insti...
September 23, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Some lovely polling published by the Policy Inst at KCL today on partial quotations www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-insti...
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Feel like we should bring back the old twitter follow friday to boost good people on here who maybe didn't get an initial boost from the starter packs.
So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.
So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.
September 19, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Feel like we should bring back the old twitter follow friday to boost good people on here who maybe didn't get an initial boost from the starter packs.
So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.
So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.
Reposted by Anthony Wells
These estimates of public support for violence (from www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/o...) are inflated - *much* higher than what we and others have found using question wording that reduces acquiescence bias: brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-... The vast majority of Americans reject political violence.
September 16, 2025 at 12:21 PM
These estimates of public support for violence (from www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/o...) are inflated - *much* higher than what we and others have found using question wording that reduces acquiescence bias: brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-... The vast majority of Americans reject political violence.
Reposted by Anthony Wells
would have been good to see some push back from edsall on this. it's incredibly important to get these numbers right, and this unfortunately does not pass muster
These estimates of public support for violence (from www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/o...) are inflated - *much* higher than what we and others have found using question wording that reduces acquiescence bias: brightlinewatch.org/accelerated-... The vast majority of Americans reject political violence.
September 16, 2025 at 6:44 PM
would have been good to see some push back from edsall on this. it's incredibly important to get these numbers right, and this unfortunately does not pass muster
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Peter Mandelson Sacking Day seems to come around sooner every decade. My SKETCH of Today in "No! Not Peter! Not again?"
Oh Mandy … | Robert Hutton | The Critic Magazine
Some of us are old enough to remember where we were every time Peter Mandelson resigned. His departures from high office are like royal weddings: a chance to freeze a moment in our nation’s long story…
thecritic.co.uk
September 11, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Peter Mandelson Sacking Day seems to come around sooner every decade. My SKETCH of Today in "No! Not Peter! Not again?"
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
September 11, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Ever struggle to explain why your research is relevant? Sometimes the data just does it for you! 👇
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Has anyone seen a more dramatic poll discrepancy than this one from Spain nationwide polling? CIS has PSOE +9.0pp, while NCReport has PP +9.4pp *over the exact same fieldwork*! 🤯😅
Reposted by Anthony Wells
An interesting analysis – which isn’t reflected in ‘would you consider voting for X’ data (which suggests Reform *is* reaching parts UKIP didn’t).
There’s no contradiction: Reform is reaching more voters, but only because of Con/Lab collapse.
Suggests ‘Reform Modernisation’ narrative is overdone.
There’s no contradiction: Reform is reaching more voters, but only because of Con/Lab collapse.
Suggests ‘Reform Modernisation’ narrative is overdone.
I think some people may be slipping into the fallacy of assuming "UK Radical Right Vote Intention High" implies that the UK Radical Right has gotten more popular.
It's actually substantially more unpopular than UKIP in 2014.
What's different is that the Cons. are *waay* more unpopular than 2014.
It's actually substantially more unpopular than UKIP in 2014.
What's different is that the Cons. are *waay* more unpopular than 2014.
September 10, 2025 at 2:25 PM
An interesting analysis – which isn’t reflected in ‘would you consider voting for X’ data (which suggests Reform *is* reaching parts UKIP didn’t).
There’s no contradiction: Reform is reaching more voters, but only because of Con/Lab collapse.
Suggests ‘Reform Modernisation’ narrative is overdone.
There’s no contradiction: Reform is reaching more voters, but only because of Con/Lab collapse.
Suggests ‘Reform Modernisation’ narrative is overdone.
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Somewhat sensationalist headline here obscures some really interesting research - which tallies with other available tracking data - on shifting attitudes to climate in the UK.
Below are a few quick thoughts on how to understand this, in my view 👇 t.co/gDqlQgQBHn
Below are a few quick thoughts on how to understand this, in my view 👇 t.co/gDqlQgQBHn
September 9, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Somewhat sensationalist headline here obscures some really interesting research - which tallies with other available tracking data - on shifting attitudes to climate in the UK.
Below are a few quick thoughts on how to understand this, in my view 👇 t.co/gDqlQgQBHn
Below are a few quick thoughts on how to understand this, in my view 👇 t.co/gDqlQgQBHn
Reposted by Anthony Wells
🚨NEW DATA 🚨
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0
You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...
You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0
You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...
You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
BES 2024 Random Probability Survey Release Note v1.0.0 - The British Election Study
www.britishelectionstudy.com
September 1, 2025 at 9:16 AM
🚨NEW DATA 🚨
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0
You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...
You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0
You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/...
You can find our release note here:
www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
Sigh. "Might consider doing x" does not equal "set to do x".
August 22, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Sigh. "Might consider doing x" does not equal "set to do x".
Reposted by Anthony Wells
In polling world, “synthetic sampling” (using LLMs to replace human respondents) has been getting a lot of attention recently. Last wk, Ipsos announced a synthetic panel!
But does it actually work? Here’s a white paper I wrote: “Your Polls on ChatGPT”
report.verasight.io/synthetic-sa...
But does it actually work? Here’s a white paper I wrote: “Your Polls on ChatGPT”
report.verasight.io/synthetic-sa...
Synthetic Sampling Report | Verasight
A report on the challenges of "synthetic sampling" for public opinion polling.
report.verasight.io
August 19, 2025 at 1:22 PM
In polling world, “synthetic sampling” (using LLMs to replace human respondents) has been getting a lot of attention recently. Last wk, Ipsos announced a synthetic panel!
But does it actually work? Here’s a white paper I wrote: “Your Polls on ChatGPT”
report.verasight.io/synthetic-sa...
But does it actually work? Here’s a white paper I wrote: “Your Polls on ChatGPT”
report.verasight.io/synthetic-sa...
Reposted by Anthony Wells
Had it been presented with comment, that comment might have noted the good reasons not to take these answers at face value.
In hotly politicised contexts, poll responses are often expressive rather than sincere: that is, people give what they know is the right answer to support their side. (1/3)
In hotly politicised contexts, poll responses are often expressive rather than sincere: that is, people give what they know is the right answer to support their side. (1/3)
August 8, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Had it been presented with comment, that comment might have noted the good reasons not to take these answers at face value.
In hotly politicised contexts, poll responses are often expressive rather than sincere: that is, people give what they know is the right answer to support their side. (1/3)
In hotly politicised contexts, poll responses are often expressive rather than sincere: that is, people give what they know is the right answer to support their side. (1/3)