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Lucas Leemann

Lucas Leemann

@lucasleemann.bsky.social

2.3K followers 1.9K following 12 posts

Professor University of Zurich @ipz.bsky.social — interested in comparative politics & data science — representation, participation, direct democracy — @leewas.bsky.social — @bjpols.bsky.social — DigDemLab — Co-founder of
https://leewas.ch/ .. more

Political science 37%

Economics 12%

more

Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · 21h

𝟟𝟝% «𝕒𝕘𝕤𝕖𝕚𝕥», 𝟟𝟠.𝟚𝟠% «𝕘𝕞𝕒𝕔𝕙𝕥»: Mit seiner design-basierten Umfragemethode höchster Güte lag @leewas.bsky.social bei der «Zukunftsinitiative» besonders nah am wahren Ergebnis – so nahe wie kein anderes Umfrageinstitut.

Schon um 12:02h zeigte die Abstimmungsnadel 78.4% NEIN (Schlussresultat: 78.3%)

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · 1d

Wenn eine Abstimmung eine Art Neuauflage einer früheren Abstimmung ist:

Korrelation des Ja-Anteils bei der 99%-Initiative (2021) & der heutigen «Zukunftsinitiative» für eine Erbschaftssteuer

Grafik: @leewas.bsky.social
cc @lucasleemann.bsky.social @mariostauble.bsky.social @rfrbrghs.bsky.social

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · 1d

Die legendäre @leewas.bsky.social -Abstimmungsnadel tickt – mit Liveprognose in Echtzeit!

Jetzt den Abstimmungssonntag verfolgen: tagesanzeiger.ch

cc @lucasleemann.bsky.social @mariostauble.bsky.social #abst25 #chvote #ServiceCitoyen #Erbschaftssteuer

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

Mario Stäuble @mariostauble.bsky.social · 1d

Heute stimmt die Schweiz über eine 50%-Erbschaftssteuer für Reiche ab – und über einen Bürgerdienst für alle, a.k.a «Service Citoyen». Wir berichten im Ticker: www.tagesanzeiger.ch/abstimmung-n...

Um 12 Uhr läuft auch unsere Live-Hochrechnung an, die wir zusammen mit @leewas.bsky.social betreiben.

Abstimmungen im Ticker: Wie hart wird die Schlappe für die Juso-Initiative und den Service Citoyen?

Die Schweizer Stimmbevölkerung entscheidet heute über eine Erbschaftssteuer für Superreiche und darüber, ob künftig auch Frauen ins Militär oder den Zivildienst müssen. Laut Umfragen stehen die Chancen beider Vorlagen schlecht.

www.tagesanzeiger.ch

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Lucas Leemann

Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 1d

Today, Swiss voters will vote on two nation-wide referendums (popular initiatives):

▪️on replacing compulsory military service with a civic duty extended to women ( #ServiceCitoyen)

▪️on introducing an inheritance tax ( #Erbschaftssteuer) for the very rich
to fund measures to fight climate change

Reposted by Nils B. Weidmann, Lucas Leemann, Jason Reifler , and 2 more Nils B. Weidmann, Lucas Leemann, Jason Reifler, Christian Breunig, Claudia Diehl

Aurélia Bardon @aureliabardon.bsky.social · 7d

📣 We're hiring a postdoc in political science for our ReJust project @uni-konstanz.de!

Project with Dirk Leuffen @leuffen.bsky.social and Urs Fischbacher

3-year position | Deadline: Dec. 15, 2025 | Start: April 2026

Please share widely 🙏

Postdoctoral Research Position

Deadline: 15.12.2025

stellen.uni-konstanz.de

Reposted by Tim Bale, Stefan Müller, Lucas Leemann , and 2 more Tim Bale, Stefan Müller, Lucas Leemann, Philip Cowley, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 10d

NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)

Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

Reposted by Will Jennings, Alexander Wuttke, Lucas Leemann , and 5 more Will Jennings, Alexander Wuttke, Lucas Leemann, Robert Huber, Markus Wagner, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Tarik Abou‐Chadi, David Darmofal

Magda Breyer @mabreyer.bsky.social · 10d

New article out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social with Tabea Palmtag and @dpzollinger.bsky.social 📝
We use open-ended survey questions (in Germany) to assess how and among whom social status shifts are perceived. This tests cultural backlash narratives in voters' perceptions.

🔗 doi.org/10.1177/0010...

Abstract
It is widely accepted in political science – and remarkably established in public discourse – that status anxieties fuel a far right backlash against progressive politics. This narrative suggests that right-wing conservatives perceive the status of women, racial, or sexual minorities as threatening. Using open-ended survey questions fielded in Germany, we show that women and minorities indeed figure in people’s perceptions of status hierarchies, but in very specific ways: First, overall, people still perceive status as largely socioeconomically determined. Second, sociocultural groups figure in perceptions of who is gaining/losing status, less so in perceptions of the top/bottom of society. Third, more than conservative voters, it is social progressives who mention women and minorities as “winners”. While on race/ethnicity, we find evidence for a backlash, on gender and sexuality we find more evidence for a progressive momentum. This matters for progressive politics today and for how we empirically study status concerns.

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · 12d

𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐊𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐭𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐛𝐞𝐢 𝐝𝐞𝐫 «𝐈𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐟ü𝐫 𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐙𝐮𝐤𝐮𝐧𝐟𝐭»: Gemäss der 2. Welle der @20min.ch/Tamedia-Umfrage von @leewas.bsky.social wird die Juso-Initiative von 75% der Befragten abgelehnt.

Bemerkenswert ist der Altersgraben (15%-Pkte).

@peligro.bsky.social @lucasleemann.bsky.social

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · 12d

𝐌ä𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐧𝐮𝐧 𝐚𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐠𝐞𝐠𝐞𝐧 𝐒𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞-𝐂𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐲𝐞𝐧-𝐈𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞: Gemäss der 2. Welle der @20min.ch/Tamedia-Umfrage von @leewas.bsky.social ist die Zustimmung eingebrochen. Mit aktuell 26% Ja dürfte das Anliegen chancenlos sein.

Bemerkenswert ist der Meinungsumschwung bei den Männern

@lucasleemann.bsky.social

Reposted by Lucas Leemann, Jonathan Hopkin, M Josep

Delia Zollinger @dpzollinger.bsky.social · 25d

How are contemporary cleavage structures stabilized in times of declining mass social and political organizations?

In this new paper with @davidattewell6.bsky.social @bjpols.bsky.social, we suggest that homogeneous social (educational) networks provide part of the answer.

tinyurl.com/49cs8jwp

Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core

Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization - Volume 55

Reposted by Lucas Leemann, Silja Häusermann

Reto Bürgisser @retobuergisser.bsky.social · 26d

Share widely with your students in Switzerland 🇨🇭thinking about a PhD @eui-eu.bsky.social

𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET

@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.

👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...

PhD Prep Talk: Switzerland

Meet an EUI Researcher and alumnus from your country!

Reposted by Lucas Leemann, Dimiter Toshkov, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

Sascha Riaz @riazsascha.bsky.social · 27d

New paper with @mhamjediers.bsky.social

German judges have discretion to apply rehabilitative juvenile criminal law (Jugendstrafrecht) or punitive adult criminal law to 18–20-year-old offenders. We show that immigrant youths are ~10 percentage points less likely to be sentenced under juvenile law

British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 27d

NEW -

Anti-Immigrant Bias in the Choice Between Punitive and Rehabilitative Justice - https://cup.org/49vUfVa

- @riazsascha.bsky.social & @mhamjediers.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract of a study on bias in judicial decisions affecting juvenile criminal offenders, emphasizing the impact on immigrant offenders and suggesting reforms for a more equitable justice system.

Reposted by Lucas Leemann, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 27d

NEW -

Anti-Immigrant Bias in the Choice Between Punitive and Rehabilitative Justice - https://cup.org/49vUfVa

- @riazsascha.bsky.social & @mhamjediers.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract of a study on bias in judicial decisions affecting juvenile criminal offenders, emphasizing the impact on immigrant offenders and suggesting reforms for a more equitable justice system.

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

Adrienne Fichter @adfichter.bsky.social · Oct 31

💥 💥 BREAKING: Der Schweizer Armeechef Thomas Süssli will kein Microsoft. 💥 💥

Süssli fordert:

➡️ eine Exitstrategie aus Microsoft:
➡️ eine IT-Infrastruktur für sensitive Daten
➡️ eine Schweizer Open-Source-Lösung.

(und OpenDesk von ZenDis😉)

Read the full story ⬇️
www.republik.ch/2025/10/31/d...

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · Oct 30

Happy to share that my article with Miguel Rueda and Shuning Ge is out for early view at @bjpols.bsky.social.

We show that the level of aggregation at which electoral results are published affects election integrity.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Do More Disaggregated Electoral Results Deter Aggregation Fraud? | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core

Do More Disaggregated Electoral Results Deter Aggregation Fraud? - Volume 55

www.cambridge.org

Reposted by Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Cas Mudde , and 51 more Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Cas Mudde, Ben H. Ansell, Jan W. Mueller, Guntram B. Wolff, Christian Odendahl, Richard S.J. Tol, Colin F. Camerer, Robbert Sanderman, David Brady, Gabriel Felbermayr, Steven Van de Walle, Tomasz Mickiewicz, Alistair Munro, Michael A. Clemens, Cyrus Samii, Lucas Leemann, Francesco Saraceno, Laia Balcells, Andrew Curry, Paul Lehmann, Guy Grossman, John Mullahy, Joshua Goodman, David Dorn, Ingo Rohlfing, Daniel W. Drezner, Iikka Korhonen, Robert C. Richards, Aaron Sojourner, Daniel Huppmann, Julia Lynch, Rita Hamad, Stephen D. Murphy, Nazita Lajevardi, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Miguel Á. Malo, Henry Farrell, Dean Eckles, Maria Abreu, Dana R. Fisher, Jason Lyall, Brian Weatherson, Brooke Harrington, Bård Harstad, Christina Pagel, Jürgen Janger, Nicolai von Ondarza, Karsten Mäuse, Dietmar Fehr, Bartosz Bartkowski, Adam Tooze, Anita Gohdes

Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · Oct 10

I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

🧵 1/7

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

Electoral Studies @electoralstudies.bsky.social · Oct 9

...which neatly ties to research on the effect of prepaid postage in particular. We have not one but two papers here for you! One by Jenny Yin, Thomas Willi and @lucasleemann.bsky.social on the effect of prepaid postage on turnout in Switzerland

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Reposted by Lucas Leemann, Rosie Campbell

Electoral Studies @electoralstudies.bsky.social · Oct 9

Today is #WorldPostDay, marking the establishment of the Universal Postal Union—a UN agency coordinating postal policies globally. The post revolutionised communication and is an increasingly common voting method, so to mark the occasion, here are some of our recent articles on postal voting... 📫 ✉️

Reposted by Stefanie Walter, Lucas Leemann, Christian Rauh , and 1 more Stefanie Walter, Lucas Leemann, Christian Rauh, Roman Senninger

Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · Oct 8

🚨 New(ish) Publication Alert! Delighted to see my article Credit Claiming in the EU @thejop.bsky.social I explore a classic question for accountability in Europe: when and why do govs claim credit for the work of the EU and shift blame onto Brussels to avoid responsibility? doi.org/10.1086/732970

Credit Claiming in the European Union | The Journal of Politics: Vol 87, No 3

Incumbents in multilevel systems are assumed to exploit uncertainty of responsibility by claiming credit and shifting blame, yet little is known about when and how they engage in these rhetorical stra...

Reposted by Lucas Leemann, Chris Hanretty, Janne Tukiainen

Francesca R. Jensenius @fr-jensenius.bsky.social · Oct 8

Very happy to be able to share the polling-level dataset on Indian Parliamentary Elections 2009, 2014, 2019 that we have been working on for more than a decade. Both the data and the data descriptor are open access: rdcu.be/eujHH

@statsvitenskap.bsky.social @unioslo-svfak.bsky.social

Screen shot of the title and abstract of the article I am talking about

Reposted by Lucas Leemann, Nicolai von Ondarza

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · Oct 2

𝗚𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗵𝗲𝗶𝘁𝘀𝗸𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻 – 𝗱𝗮𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝘁 𝗔𝗯𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗿ä𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀𝘁𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺 𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝘀 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗵ä𝗹𝘁𝗻𝗶𝘀 𝘇𝘂𝗿 𝗘𝗨 𝗻𝗲𝘂 𝗶𝗻 𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝗼𝗽3: Das und vieles mehr zeigt die neue @20min.ch -/Tamedia-Wahlumfrage von @leewas.bsky.social

cc @lucasleemann.bsky.social

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

Le Temps @letemps.ch · Oct 1

Dernier entré, Martin Pfister est le conseiller fédéral le plus populaire

Dernier entré, Martin Pfister est le conseiller fédéral le plus populaire

Reposted by Sara B. Hobolt, Stefan Müller, Stefanie Walter , and 5 more Sara B. Hobolt, Stefan Müller, Stefanie Walter, Lucas Leemann, Thomas M. Meyer, Miriam Rehm, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · Sep 30

What's the difference between @epssnet.bsky.social and the "old" EPSA, and why you should come to our conference in Belfast in June 2026: epssnet.org/uncategorize...

Difference Between EPSS and EPSA: What to Know for 2026

Confused about the difference between EPSS and EPSA? Learn how they differ in governance, structure, and their 2026 conferences.

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · Sep 30

𝗠𝗲𝗵𝗿𝗵𝗲𝗶𝘁 𝗳ü𝗿 𝗘𝗶𝗻𝗵𝗲𝗶𝘁𝘀𝗸𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗸𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗶 𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗪ä𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗵𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗻 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝘄𝗲𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗶𝗲𝗻: Das und vieles mehr zeigen die Zusatzauswertungen in der @20min.ch -/Tamedia-Nachbefragung von LeeWas zu den eidgenössischen Volksabstimmungen vom 28. Sept. 2025.

cc @lucasleemann.bsky.social #chvote #abst25

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · Sep 29

Der vollständige Bericht der @20min.online -/Tamedia-Nachbefragung von @leewas.bsky.social ist nun online: leewas.ch/referenzen/

@tagesanzeiger.bsky.social
@peligro.bsky.social @marcbrup.bsky.social
@yannickwiget.bsky.social
@mathiaslutz.bsky.social
@lucasleemann.bsky.social

#chvote #abst25 #EID

Berichte | LeeWas

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · Sep 28

Die legendäre @leewas.bsky.social -Abstimmungsnadel tickt und tickt….

….mit aktuell knappem Ja zur E-ID (± 1.4%)

cc @tagesanzeiger.bsky.social
@peligro.bsky.social @marcbrup.bsky.social
@yannickwiget.bsky.social
@mathiaslutz.bsky.social #chvote #abst25 #EID

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

Mario Stäuble @mariostauble.bsky.social · Sep 28

Live-Hochrechnung zu den Abstimmungen:
Abschaffung Eigenmietwert – rund 60 Prozent ja.
E-ID – auf Messers Schneide. Jetzt 51 Prozent Nein, aber Fehlerbereich noch 2,5 Prozent. Alle Prognosen hier: www.tagesanzeiger.ch/karten-und-g...

Karten und Grafiken: Die Schweiz stimmt ab: Alle Resultate im Überblick

Die Stimmberechtigten entscheiden über die Abschaffung des Eigenmietwerts und die E-ID. Auch alle Ergebnisse der kantonalen Abstimmungen finden Sie in dieser Übersicht.

www.tagesanzeiger.ch

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

Mathias Lutz @mathiaslutz.bsky.social · Sep 28

Abschaffung des Eigenmietwerts: 62,9% JA
E-ID-Gesetz: 50,4% JA
So die ersten Prognosen unserer #Hochrechnungen zum #Abstimmungssonntag mit
@leewas.bsky.social

Liveprognosen verfolgen:
www.tagesanzeiger.ch/790131388382
#CHvote #Abst25 #Eigenmietwert #eID

Reposted by Lucas Leemann

LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · Sep 28

Die legendäre @leewas.bsky.social -Abstimmungsnadel tickt – mit Liveprognose in Echtzeit!

Jetzt den Abstimmungssonntag verfolgen: tagesanzeiger.ch

cc @lucasleemann.bsky.social #abst25 #chvote #Eigenmietwert #EID