Marcus Crede
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marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede
@marcuscrede.bsky.social
1.2K followers 390 following 650 posts

Grumpy IO psychologist with an interest in research methods, meta-science and personality. Views are my own and not those of my employer.
Begrawe my hart op Klein Tambotieboom en strooi my as oor die Bosveld horison

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Business 15%
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Reposted by Marcus Credé

lakens.bsky.social
Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · 1d
Babbage, 1830, discussing the problem that scientists selectively report findings that they want to be true.

Confirmation bias is a strong human tendency. This is why we need to design science in a way that prevents conformation bias from leading us away from the truth.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 3d
The crap proliferates at a rate that is impossible to keep correcting and most attempts at correction go unnoticed because psychology is so awful at training folks at methods and statistics. I've spent the last +15 years trying to correct the nonsense with very little impact.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 4d
Since publishers apparently can't pay reviewers or even associate editors I will take a simple thank you from the AE who asked you to do hours of unpaid work.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 4d
Oh look! I got a "reviewer certificate" from APA. Apparently I can post it on LinkedIn or share it on social media to "showcase my skills". Is someone at APA being paid to come up with this cringey nonsense?

Reposted by Brian A. Nosek, Dan Goldhaber, Brendan Nyhan , and 32 more

ryancbriggs.net
Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 4d
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 6d
Was it mediated by something that you measured at the same time by asking the same group of managers? Can you please generalize this to all humanity. publish it in AMJ and talk about this at the next TED conference? Your Dean will thank you.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 6d
Much? "Most" or ">90%" is probably what you are looking for, although the base rate may be particularly high in the fields of management and organizational behavior.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 7d
Now I know who you mean. What an ass.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 8d
I am a methods editor for two journals so most papers that pass the regular reviewers can passed on to me for a methods review and then I also do a lot of other "regular" reviews for other journals. I don't publish that much myself.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 8d
Ugh. Now I'm worried that it is one of my colleagues.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 8d
I probably review 40-50 papers for every one that I submit. It's nuts that so many people simply refuse to review.

Reposted by Julia Lynch, Beatriz Gallardo Paúls, Ann Bartow , and 3 more

ashevenell.bsky.social
Amelia Shevenell @ashevenell.bsky.social · 8d
Trust me, the woman of academia are not at all surprised by the number of academic men orbiting Epstein.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 10d
I'm coding articles for a review project and because I am coding alphabetically I am noticing just how often authors basically write the same article year after year after year. No new ideas, recycled writing, same awful methods and/or statistical errors. Great to see peer review at work.

Reposted by Marcus Credé

conradhackett.bsky.social
Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 10d
The pandemic caused a lot of change. Some changes that show up in survey data result from changes in survey methods. For example, a rise in the share of Spaniards identifying with no religion coincides with a switch from in-person to phone surveys. Read more: sociologicalscience.com/download/vol...
Chart shows the percent of Spaniards claiming no religion in a monthly survey rose in tandem with a switch in survey mode from in-person interviews to phone interviews.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 11d
I always have my students read Dunnette's (1963) "Fads, fashions, and folderol". It's eerie how almost every sentence of that paper/address applies to psychology in the 2020s.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 12d
Red red wine by UB40. My wife uses this to punish me.
charlypudding.bsky.social Charly, smiling politely @charlypudding.bsky.social · Mar 29
Fuck your favourite song. Tell me your least favourite song. The one that makes you die inside the moment you hear the first 3 seconds.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 13d
Cool stuff but I am wondering if your section on profile correlations needs to take into account what Wood and Furr (2015) refer to as the normative-desirability confound.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 14d
I'll happily toot my own horn here: Power posing, grit, and collective intelligence.
Our take downs:
open.lnu.se/index.php/me...
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27845531/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29016184/

The power posing one is probably most accessible.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 14d
South African undergrad:
1. Micro economics
2. Macro economics
3. Differential Equations
4. Fundamentals of Actuarial Math (brutally hard)
5. Real Analysis (worse)

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 14d
Agreed that it seemed like that but am proud that at my US institution psychology majors are very likely to have exactly those five courses you list.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 16d
So so so gross.
cingraham.bsky.social Chris Ingraham @cingraham.bsky.social · 16d
Here’s Duke behavioral economist Dan Ariely asking Jeffrey Epstein for “the name and email of the redhead that was here with you.” This is four years after Epstein’s 2008 conviction for procuring a child for prostitution.
kjhealy.co Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 16d
Doo do doo

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 16d
Thanks for the kind offer. I've gotten some input from someone else who agrees with my interpretation. I've published with Gelman but don't want to bother him with such a small issue.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen, Beatriz Gallardo Paúls, Marcus Credé , and 1 more

theonion.com
The Onion @theonion.com · 16d
“Doctors won’t tell you this, but you don’t need medication for a tapeworm—all you need is the natural power of friction,” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said as he dropped to the floor, lifted his legs high, and dragged his ass along the White House carpet during a press conference.
RFK Jr. Demonstrates How To Remove Tapeworm By Scooting Ass Across Carpet
WASHINGTON—In an address touting the practice as a completely drug-free method to relieve the common affliction, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. demonstrated Thursday how ...
theonion.com

Reposted by Lisa W. Fazio, Ben H. Ansell, Scott L. Greer , and 11 more

cingraham.bsky.social
Chris Ingraham @cingraham.bsky.social · 16d
Here’s Duke behavioral economist Dan Ariely asking Jeffrey Epstein for “the name and email of the redhead that was here with you.” This is four years after Epstein’s 2008 conviction for procuring a child for prostitution.
kjhealy.co Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 16d
Doo do doo

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 16d
Write to the authors or editor.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 16d
Is there anyone willing to take a quick look at a recent paper that seems to make the "difference between significance and non-significance is significant" error? I want to make sure that I've not misread something before proceeding.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 17d
Yale - a mediocre TEDx conference with dormitories that costs $90k to attend.
aetiology.bsky.social Tara C. Smith @aetiology.bsky.social · 17d
OH COME ON. Brooks knows fuck-all about "society at large".
"To help address rising public skepticism of higher education, Yale is launching a new program that will expand access to the transformative work of universities. Started by President Maurie McInnis, the Presidential Senior Fellowship will bring to campus experts to foster respectful debate and bridge the academy with society at large. As part of this effort, author and columnist David Brooks will join the Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs as a Presidential Senior Fellow starting February 1. Read more in Yale News: bit.ly/49QpJoY #Yale"

Reposted by Cameron Campbell, Alan Richardson, Silvia Secchi , and 5 more

aetiology.bsky.social
Tara C. Smith @aetiology.bsky.social · 17d
OH COME ON. Brooks knows fuck-all about "society at large".
"To help address rising public skepticism of higher education, Yale is launching a new program that will expand access to the transformative work of universities. Started by President Maurie McInnis, the Presidential Senior Fellowship will bring to campus experts to foster respectful debate and bridge the academy with society at large. As part of this effort, author and columnist David Brooks will join the Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs as a Presidential Senior Fellow starting February 1. Read more in Yale News: bit.ly/49QpJoY #Yale"

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 17d
This. Most academics that I know don't have teams of researchers to work with and they hardly ever get to go to conferences or lean on their "peer communities" and "mentors" for support.

marcuscrede.bsky.social
Marcus Crede @marcuscrede.bsky.social · 21d
Is it just me or does it seem a little gross when the editor of a leading journal publishes 9 articles in his own journal in the first three years of his editorship?