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northcarolinaexpat.bsky.social
Jonathan Parker
@northcarolinaexpat.bsky.social
48 followers 41 following 12 posts

Teacher of policy and research methods. Researcher of higher education and pedagogy. Long distance running keeps me from coming unglued.

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Education 30%
Public Health 19%
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Reposted by Michael E. Mann, Anna O. Law, Richard S.J. Tol , and 25 more

josephpolitano.bsky.social
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · Aug 11
An "economist" so dumb I had to explain to him how the import price index works last month will now lead the BLS, kill me
a tweet from EJ Antoni that reads "Import prices just came in WAAAY below expectations: June was up just 0.1% M/M, -0.2% Y/Y, while May saw a huge downward revision from flat to -0.4% M/M; still waiting for tariffs to be passed on by foreign producers..." I replied "The import price index measure pre-tariff prices, the fact that pre-tariff prices are basically flat means Americans are paying the tariffs. Though I wouldn’t expect a Heritage foundation guy like yourself to be smart enough to understand basic stuff like that."
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Reposted by Dani Rodrik, Jonathan Portes, Cas Mudde , and 45 more

chadbourn.bsky.social
Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · Aug 10
BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen has confirmed that the entire Al Jazeera team in Gaza City has been killed.
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Aug 10
Woo hoo!
qjeharvard.bsky.social
The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · Aug 10
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment*
Abstract. Student loans with income-contingent repayment insure borrowers against income risk but can reduce their incentives to earn more. Using a change
doi.org

Reposted by Stephen J. Redding, Jonathan Parker

qjeharvard.bsky.social
The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · Aug 10
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment*
Abstract. Student loans with income-contingent repayment insure borrowers against income risk but can reduce their incentives to earn more. Using a change
doi.org
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker, Trevon D. Logan, Aaron Sojourner

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · Aug 8
The President firing the BLS Commissioner last week stirred up many criticisms agency. One that I found most troubling is the idea that the private sector could do it better. No, there's no substitute for the BLS as I argue in my
@opinion.bloomberg.com piece: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
The BLS Can’t Be Replaced by the Private Sector
Government statistical agencies provide breadth and context that private firms can’t match.
www.bloomberg.com
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Aug 7
Hazy August morning with sailboats
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Aug 6
Trump is the gift that keeps giving to China via @FT
I’m happy that the U.S. is supporting the people and economy of China, but we should be doing that by lifting us all up, not pulling America down.

on.ft.com/4ooVDOq
Trump is the gift that keeps giving to China
The US president is upending a quarter of a century of American policy in the Indo-Pacific
on.ft.com
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Reposted by Aaron Sojourner

profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Aug 4
Yup. Definitely out on TIPS, but maybe Treasuries too?
Trump already told you: “I’ve made a fortune using debt, and if things don’t work out, I renegotiate the debt…You go back and you say, hey guess what, the economy crashed, I’m gonna give you back half.”
pkwsj.bsky.social
Paul Kiernan @pkwsj.bsky.social · Aug 4
If inflation figures are less accurate, or if investors suspect they’re subject to political influence, it could chill the $2 trillion market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS.
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
Trump vs. the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Why This Firing Could Burn Your Finances
🔎 This is an online version of Spencer's Markets A.M. newsletter. Get investing insights in your inbox each weekday by signing up here—it’s free. 📧 Jerome Powell is a household name, at least to reade...
www.wsj.com
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker

pkwsj.bsky.social
Paul Kiernan @pkwsj.bsky.social · Aug 4
If inflation figures are less accurate, or if investors suspect they’re subject to political influence, it could chill the $2 trillion market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS.
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
Trump vs. the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Why This Firing Could Burn Your Finances
🔎 This is an online version of Spencer's Markets A.M. newsletter. Get investing insights in your inbox each weekday by signing up here—it’s free. 📧 Jerome Powell is a household name, at least to reade...
www.wsj.com
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Reposted by Nicholas A. Christakis, Jonathan Parker, Karen Benjamin Guzzo , and 1 more

crampell.bsky.social
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · Aug 2
Just remembering I wrote this ~3 weeks ago. For once wishing I’d been wrong. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | First thing we do, let’s fire all the statisticians
The Trump administration’s strategy in dealing with tough numbers: Don’t count them.
www.washingtonpost.com
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Reposted by Christian Odendahl, Margaret Mitchell, Richard S.J. Tol , and 46 more

dynarski.bsky.social
Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · Aug 2
Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal
August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker

aaronsojourner.org
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · Aug 2
Then former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social interviewed @econofact.bsky.social.
econofact.org/podcast/the-...
The Vital Importance of Good Economic Statistics (Re-broadcast) | Chats
A discussion with Erica Groshen on the role of the BLS, the importance of good data for decision-making, and concerns about political interference degrading the integrity of government statistics.
econofact.org
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Aug 2
Heartfelt thank you for your service.

Reposted by Scott L. Greer, Jonathan Parker, Michael A. Clemens , and 5 more

dynarski.bsky.social
Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · Aug 2
Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Aug 2
On the one hand, Wow!
On the other hand, not surprising that “the more you suffer, the more it shows you really care” was written by someone with a PhD.
gamerstavernshow.com
Darryl Mott 💀 @gamerstavernshow.com · Aug 1
If you want a weird but true fact to talk about:

Dexter Holland, lead singer of The Offspring, was instrumental in this. His doctorial thesis in molecular biology was sequencing mRNA in HIV. The paper was also heavily cited in creating the COVID-19 vaccine.
faineg.bsky.social
Faine Greenwood @faineg.bsky.social · Aug 1
It feels like we should be making a bigger deal of “we actually did in fact find a cure for AIDS”
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Aug 2
Does Trump now appoint Ghislaine Maxwell to head the BLS or to the empty Fed Board seat?
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Reposted by Claudia Sahm, Axel Bruns, Jonathan Parker , and 5 more

bencasselman.bsky.social
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · Aug 2
For months, people have been asking me whether I still trusted gov’t data. My answer was always the same: The stats agencies faced longstanding challenges, some of which Trump was making worse. But there was no sign of political meddling.
I can’t say that anymore.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...
Trump, Claiming Weak Jobs Numbers Were ‘Rigged,’ Fires Labor Official
www.nytimes.com
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Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Jonathan Parker, Rebecca Williams , and 2 more

gamerstavernshow.com
Darryl Mott 💀 @gamerstavernshow.com · Aug 1
If you want a weird but true fact to talk about:

Dexter Holland, lead singer of The Offspring, was instrumental in this. His doctorial thesis in molecular biology was sequencing mRNA in HIV. The paper was also heavily cited in creating the COVID-19 vaccine.
faineg.bsky.social
Faine Greenwood @faineg.bsky.social · Aug 1
It feels like we should be making a bigger deal of “we actually did in fact find a cure for AIDS”
wired.com
WIRED @wired.com · Aug 1
Evidence is growing that some HIV-infected infants, if given antiretroviral drugs early in life, are able to suppress their viral loads to undetectable levels and then come off the medicine. www.wired.com/story/the-fi...
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Jul 31
Beautiful from Matt Levine today:
"One model that you can have is that superhuman AI will be terrifying in various ways, but extremely rational... it will be a sort of psychotic pursuing its own aims with crushing instrumental rationality. And arguably that’s where you need economists!"

profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Jul 31
This is going to be fun . . .
www.crfb.org/blogs/trump-...
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Jul 30
The Onion headline makes it the NYT!!!
bencollins.bsky.social
Tim Onion @bencollins.bsky.social · Jul 30
Holy shit, they did it. They wrote the headline.
NYC Mass Shooting Was Nearly Impossible to Prevent, Experts Say
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Reposted by Timnit Gebru, Peter Thorne, Steve Peers , and 9 more

bencollins.bsky.social
Tim Onion @bencollins.bsky.social · Jul 30
Holy shit, they did it. They wrote the headline.
NYC Mass Shooting Was Nearly Impossible to Prevent, Experts Say
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Jul 29
MIT Sloan finance has authority to hire three new faculty to start summer 2026, so there’s that

(Also Econ job mkt average pay probably will be way up, but due to composition bias.)
david-schindler.de
David Schindler @david-schindler.de · Jul 29
By all indications, last years economics job market was much tougher than any year since the pandemic. But all signs point towards an even worse job market coming up this season.

Let me explain.
dmckenzie.bsky.social
David McKenzie @dmckenzie.bsky.social · Jul 28
For those without access, here is a gift link to the NYTimes article on the sad state of the economics job market www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b...
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker, Amy W. Ando, Simon Wiederhold , and 2 more

david-schindler.de
David Schindler @david-schindler.de · Jul 29
By all indications, last years economics job market was much tougher than any year since the pandemic. But all signs point towards an even worse job market coming up this season.

Let me explain.
dmckenzie.bsky.social
David McKenzie @dmckenzie.bsky.social · Jul 28
For those without access, here is a gift link to the NYTimes article on the sad state of the economics job market www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b...
The Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It’s an Ominous Sign for the Economy.
www.nytimes.com
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker

cwolfram.bsky.social
Catherine Wolfram @cwolfram.bsky.social · Jul 27
Thoughtful overview of the options on the table vis-a-vis Russia by Robin Brooks and @econharris.bsky.social.

One fact that stuck out to me: crude oil accounts for ~50% of China's total imports from Russia & over 80% of India's. So crucial to hit that artery.

www.russiamatters.org/analysis/sec...
Secondary Tariffs or Tighter Sanctions? Strategies to End Russia’s War in Ukraine | Russia Matters
www.russiamatters.org
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profjaparker.bsky.social
Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · Jul 25
Greatest re-brand ever was putting an electric motor in a lightweight motorcycle and calling it an e-bike
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker

David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · May 28
Is this 'making America great again'? Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that he could may government scientists from publishing in the world’s leading medical journals, instead proposing the creation of “in-house” publications by his agency
www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker

creditslipsblog.bsky.social
Credit Slips @creditslipsblog.bsky.social · May 28
www.creditslips.org/creditslips/...
The Supreme Court Is Just Making Stuff Up About the Fed - Credit Slips
The Supreme Court is welcome to have its opinions. But it is not welcome to have its own facts. Fact-finding is at the core of the judicial enterprise, and once the Court starts simply making things u...
www.creditslips.org
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker, David L. Ortega

josephpolitano.bsky.social
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · May 29
The court ruling against many of Trump's tariffs today would lower US overall tariff rates by roughly 10%, only leaving the tariffs on cars, steel, & aluminum

If it holds (a very big if) tariffs would drop to the lowest rate since March & importers would get retroactive relief
a timeline graph of Trump's 2nd-Term tariffs
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Reposted by Jonathan Parker

dianeswonk.bsky.social
Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · May 30
Fun fact.

Incomes surged in March & April, boosted by the largest two month surge in Social Security payments since 1981.

Baby boomers are filing for benefits early on fears that staffing and funding cuts could curb their access to Social Security benefits going forward.
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